A pessimistic view of K-State's hoops team

jrake2 · Nov 7, 2017

I don't agree with the final prediction (K-State finishing 10th out of 10 teams), but this analysis is pretty well done. Much of the skepticism is fair and well argued.

On losing Iwundu:

I think Kansas State losing Wesley Iwundu is one of the more significant losses not only in the Big 12, but in the country. He did so very much for their offense, and I’m looking all over their roster, and I’m not sure how he’s going to be replaced. If we say that he started at the traditional 3 position, Xavier Sneed will step into that starting role for the Wildcats. Sneed is a promising young player with an above average shooting stroke, but his other skills are a severe drop-off compared to Iwundu. Sneed is not a great ball-handler, and he lacks playmaking ability. So much offense was initiated through Iwundu last season; Sneed does not have that ability.

On the limitations of Stokes & Brown in Weber's system:

Stokes had the worst 2-point FG% of all 58 qualifiers in the Big 12 at 34.8%. Brown was better, but still not great inside the arc. He finished 44th out of 58 players at 46.6%. Based on that data, you can obviously infer that their eFG% is similarly poor, with Brown ranking 33rd out of 38 in the league at 47.5% and Stokes ranking 35th at 45.1% (per KenPom; qualifiers must play 60% of minutes).

These guys aren’t great shooters, and because Bruce Weber’s offense is not exactly superb at getting them clean, open looks, they shoot a lot of tough jumpers, particularly off the dribble. Stokes is forced to do this often. There were many possessions last season when K-State’s offense would stagnate, Stokes would be stuck with the ball in his hands in a late shot clock high ball-screen or ISO situation and be forced to throw up a challenged 3 or long 2. This will only be exacerbated by the loss of Iwundu. He was able to get Stokes and Brown a lot of their easier looks.

On Wade's last year performance:

Of the 8 players who got regular rotation minutes for K-State, Wade was 7th in shot %, only ahead of Carlbe Ervin. When arguably your best shooter is 7th in ending possessions shooting among your rotation players, your offense is not going to reach its full potential. Wade’s Shot Rate actually went down from his freshman season, when he took 21% of shots when on the court.

Here’s the ultimate question. Is this Dean Wade’s fault? Or is this Bruce Weber’s fault? I think it’s an easy answer. Both! There were far too many times last season when Weber would go to his favorite offensive call (DRIBBLE! Seriously, just listen for Weber calling DRIBBLE! from the sideline this season in his raspy, broken voice; you will smile). This would result in his two inefficient guards, Stokes and Brown, running a dribble handoff offense on the perimeter with Iwundu. Unless the ball ended up in Iwundu’s hands, this would also result in an underwhelming possession where Stokes or Brown would often take a difficult shot. Weber needs to do a better job of getting the ball in Wade’s hands.

anon_r9ga3nx3rv0ot · Nov 7, 2017