I spent some time this evening spreading the Freshman Production of Big 12 players from 2015 to the present. I eliminated players that played less than 50 or so minutes their Fr year. I standardized the data based on stats per 25 minutes of play (approximate minutes for an average starter). I split the players into Forwards and Guards. Finally, I sorted the stats based on the star rankings for each player. Stats from 139 Freshman Players were included in this analysis.
5-Star Forward/Center (7 players): 10.3 points, 8.1 rebounds, 0.7 assists, 0.7 steals, 1.4 blocks, 2.0 Turnovers
4-Star Forward/Center (25 players): 7.2 points, 5.5 rebounds, 0.8 assists, 0.7 steals, 1.1 blocks, 1.5 Turnovers
3-Star or NR Forward/Center (35 players): 6.9 points, 4.8 rebounds, 0.7 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.9 blocks, 1.5 Turnovers
5-Star Guards (6 players): 12.0 points, 2.9 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.3 blocks, 2.2 turnovers
4-Star Guards (33 players): 7.9 points, 3.0 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.3 blocks, 1.7 turnovers
3-Star of NR Guards (33 players): 7.8 points, 3.1 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.3 blocks, 1.6 turnovers
A couple of observations...
* Average Star Ranking for a Freshman contributor is 3.60
* The difference in production between 4-star and 3-star recruits was not as significant as I had anticipated.
Application (Math Problem):
We currently have two 4-star guards, one 4-star post, and one 3-star guard coming in for next season.
Based on the standards above and an assumption on them playing a combined total of 75 minutes per game their expected production would look like this:
Combined (75 minutes):22 points
The expected returners (D.Gordon, McGuirl, Stockard, Sloan, A.Gordon, and Murphy) together are currently averaging 10.12 points per 40 minutes. The highest is Sloan at 11.3 and the lowest is Murphy at 8.4. If they are to receive the remaining 135 minutes for next season then together they would average 31.6 points. Combine this with the Freshman total and the team will only average 54.9 points per game. This season we are averaging 64.3 points per game. In order to get back to this seasons scoring average we need to #hope that our Freshman are better than the standard and/or our returning players from last season take a significant step forward.
Weber's Freshman vs. The Standards
15 KSU Freshmen from 2015 to Present vs. Their Recruiting Standard
F
KSU Freshman Averages (per 25 minutes):
7.1 points, 3.9 rebs, 1.0 asts, 0.7 stls, 0.4 blks, 1.4 TOs
KSU Freshman's Standards Averaged (per 25 minutes);
7.4 points, 4.1 rebs, 1.3 asts, 0.8 stls, 0.6 blks. 1.6 TOs
Difference:
-0.3 points, -0.2 rebs, -0.3 asts, -0.1 stls, -0.2 blks, -0.2 TOs
Compared to the conference standard, over the past 5 years KSU's Freshmen have been less productive than similarly rated recruits at other schools. Some of this could be a pacing issue, but it still does not reflect positively for us relying on our Freshmen to give us a boost next season.
Disclaimer
Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of recruits carry varying degrees of risk, and their can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific recruit, returning player, or transfer will be successful at the standard historical level. Due to various factors, including changes in coaching, style of play, pace, and rules of play the information in this post may no longer be reflective of current or future performance.
5-Star Forward/Center (7 players): 10.3 points, 8.1 rebounds, 0.7 assists, 0.7 steals, 1.4 blocks, 2.0 Turnovers
4-Star Forward/Center (25 players): 7.2 points, 5.5 rebounds, 0.8 assists, 0.7 steals, 1.1 blocks, 1.5 Turnovers
3-Star or NR Forward/Center (35 players): 6.9 points, 4.8 rebounds, 0.7 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.9 blocks, 1.5 Turnovers
5-Star Guards (6 players): 12.0 points, 2.9 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.3 blocks, 2.2 turnovers
4-Star Guards (33 players): 7.9 points, 3.0 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.3 blocks, 1.7 turnovers
3-Star of NR Guards (33 players): 7.8 points, 3.1 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.3 blocks, 1.6 turnovers
A couple of observations...
* Average Star Ranking for a Freshman contributor is 3.60
* The difference in production between 4-star and 3-star recruits was not as significant as I had anticipated.
Application (Math Problem):
We currently have two 4-star guards, one 4-star post, and one 3-star guard coming in for next season.
Based on the standards above and an assumption on them playing a combined total of 75 minutes per game their expected production would look like this:
Combined (75 minutes):22 points
The expected returners (D.Gordon, McGuirl, Stockard, Sloan, A.Gordon, and Murphy) together are currently averaging 10.12 points per 40 minutes. The highest is Sloan at 11.3 and the lowest is Murphy at 8.4. If they are to receive the remaining 135 minutes for next season then together they would average 31.6 points. Combine this with the Freshman total and the team will only average 54.9 points per game. This season we are averaging 64.3 points per game. In order to get back to this seasons scoring average we need to #hope that our Freshman are better than the standard and/or our returning players from last season take a significant step forward.
Weber's Freshman vs. The Standards
15 KSU Freshmen from 2015 to Present vs. Their Recruiting Standard
F
KSU Freshman Averages (per 25 minutes):
7.1 points, 3.9 rebs, 1.0 asts, 0.7 stls, 0.4 blks, 1.4 TOs
KSU Freshman's Standards Averaged (per 25 minutes);
7.4 points, 4.1 rebs, 1.3 asts, 0.8 stls, 0.6 blks. 1.6 TOs
Difference:
-0.3 points, -0.2 rebs, -0.3 asts, -0.1 stls, -0.2 blks, -0.2 TOs
Compared to the conference standard, over the past 5 years KSU's Freshmen have been less productive than similarly rated recruits at other schools. Some of this could be a pacing issue, but it still does not reflect positively for us relying on our Freshmen to give us a boost next season.
Disclaimer
Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of recruits carry varying degrees of risk, and their can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific recruit, returning player, or transfer will be successful at the standard historical level. Due to various factors, including changes in coaching, style of play, pace, and rules of play the information in this post may no longer be reflective of current or future performance.
