Big 12 Conference
Work left to do: Kansas State, TCU
As much as the Watch likes Kansas -- and that's a really good basketball team, no question -- Thursday's loss to TCU was a good illustration of why we're torn on what to do with the Jayhawks in our bracket next week. Kansas managed to win its 13th straight Big 12 title outright while outscoring opponents by fewer points per trip (.08) than West Virginia (.10). There were a lot of close calls along the way, in other words, and while Kansas almost always got the job done, and close games are to be expected in a league as brutal as the Big 12, weird things sometimes just happen late. Like, say, Svi Mykhailiuk flailing at TCU's Desmond Bane in the corner with two seconds left, to pick a totally random example. On the other hand, personnel-wise, there are few players you'd rather bet on in a close game than Frank Mason III. Josh Jackson didn't play Thursday. Maybe we're overreacting. Like we said: torn. In any case, Thursday's events created a Big 12 tournament semifinals round that includes Kansas State and TCU but not Kansas or Baylor. Human sacrifice, cats and dogs living together, mass hysteria.
Kansas State [20-12 (8-10), RPI: 55, SOS: 50] What is it about Kansas State and Baylor? No, seriously -- what gives? The Bears are one of the best defensive teams in the country. K-State had the Big 12's eighth-best offense. The Bears are a fearsome, stretchy shot-challenging nightmare; K-State doesn't shoot it all that well to begin with. Yet the Wildcats went 23-of-44 and 6-of-14 from 3 at the Sprint Center Thursday night, scoring 1.17 points per possession in a 70-64 win. And it was their second of the year against Baylor! And the first came in Waco! Seriously: What?! We may never unravel these arcane mysteries, but we know this much: Beating Baylor is a big deal. That Kansas State managed it for the second time this season may well make the difference between last four in and first four out on Selection Sunday. (It prompted Joe Lunardi to make exactly that change Thursday night, swapping the Wildcats for Illinois State in the final spot in the field.) And with West Virginia on deck Friday, Bruce Weber's team has yet another massive opportunity ahead of it. Press Virginia should be a bad matchup for a turnover-prone offense, but honestly, who knows?
TCU [19-14 (6-12), RPI: 63, SOS: 31] In addition to crystallizing why we're mildly terrified of taking Kansas to the deepest reaches of our NCAA tournament bracket, Thursday's Sprint Center upset also resurrected TCU's tournament hopes. Don't go too crazy. The appropriate resurrection metaphor here is less "phoenix rising from the ashes" and more "shuffling zombie corpse." This was, after all, the Horned Frogs' fourth top-100 win of the season, one that can't wipe away 14 overall losses or a 6-12 Big 12 regular-season record, not to mention the seven straight games TCU lost to end said regular season. We hate to kill the vibe after a win that momentous, but for it to be more than symbolic, TCU needs more -- beginning with Friday's semifinal against Iowa State.
Locks
Work left to do: Kansas State, TCU
As much as the Watch likes Kansas -- and that's a really good basketball team, no question -- Thursday's loss to TCU was a good illustration of why we're torn on what to do with the Jayhawks in our bracket next week. Kansas managed to win its 13th straight Big 12 title outright while outscoring opponents by fewer points per trip (.08) than West Virginia (.10). There were a lot of close calls along the way, in other words, and while Kansas almost always got the job done, and close games are to be expected in a league as brutal as the Big 12, weird things sometimes just happen late. Like, say, Svi Mykhailiuk flailing at TCU's Desmond Bane in the corner with two seconds left, to pick a totally random example. On the other hand, personnel-wise, there are few players you'd rather bet on in a close game than Frank Mason III. Josh Jackson didn't play Thursday. Maybe we're overreacting. Like we said: torn. In any case, Thursday's events created a Big 12 tournament semifinals round that includes Kansas State and TCU but not Kansas or Baylor. Human sacrifice, cats and dogs living together, mass hysteria.Kansas State [20-12 (8-10), RPI: 55, SOS: 50] What is it about Kansas State and Baylor? No, seriously -- what gives? The Bears are one of the best defensive teams in the country. K-State had the Big 12's eighth-best offense. The Bears are a fearsome, stretchy shot-challenging nightmare; K-State doesn't shoot it all that well to begin with. Yet the Wildcats went 23-of-44 and 6-of-14 from 3 at the Sprint Center Thursday night, scoring 1.17 points per possession in a 70-64 win. And it was their second of the year against Baylor! And the first came in Waco! Seriously: What?! We may never unravel these arcane mysteries, but we know this much: Beating Baylor is a big deal. That Kansas State managed it for the second time this season may well make the difference between last four in and first four out on Selection Sunday. (It prompted Joe Lunardi to make exactly that change Thursday night, swapping the Wildcats for Illinois State in the final spot in the field.) And with West Virginia on deck Friday, Bruce Weber's team has yet another massive opportunity ahead of it. Press Virginia should be a bad matchup for a turnover-prone offense, but honestly, who knows?
TCU [19-14 (6-12), RPI: 63, SOS: 31] In addition to crystallizing why we're mildly terrified of taking Kansas to the deepest reaches of our NCAA tournament bracket, Thursday's Sprint Center upset also resurrected TCU's tournament hopes. Don't go too crazy. The appropriate resurrection metaphor here is less "phoenix rising from the ashes" and more "shuffling zombie corpse." This was, after all, the Horned Frogs' fourth top-100 win of the season, one that can't wipe away 14 overall losses or a 6-12 Big 12 regular-season record, not to mention the seven straight games TCU lost to end said regular season. We hate to kill the vibe after a win that momentous, but for it to be more than symbolic, TCU needs more -- beginning with Friday's semifinal against Iowa State.
Locks
