Big 12 Conference
Teams that should be in: West Virginia
Work left to do: Oklahoma State, TCU, Kansas State, Iowa State, Texas Tech
Baylor nearly lost its third straight game Wednesday after almost surrendering a 13-point lead it held with 4:14 to play at Oklahoma State. The Watch has no rooting interest, but we admit to being relieved by the Bears' win, if only to prevent the nascent "they're overrated" nonsense people seem so strangely eager to apply to this one program in particular. (Meanwhile, be warned: Oklahoma State can cook.)
West Virginia [19-5 (7-4), RPI: 32, SOS: 114] As stated in the intro, West Virginia will get to lock status sooner rather than later, though Wednesday's road win at Oklahoma isn't enough to get them there just yet. Beating Kansas State at home Saturday might do the job.
Oklahoma State [15-9 (4-7), RPI: 30, SOS: 10] Baylor went cold and got tight down the stretch in its nervy win over Oklahoma State, but do not discount the Cowboys' thrilling late run. Brad Underwood's team had scored 1.22 points per trip in its previous four games, which included 82 in 63 possessions at West Virginia. Turnovers and shaky defense are going to be problems in perpetuity, but when you score it like that, you can get by with both. This is a team peaking at the perfect time.
TCU [17-7 (6-5), RPI: 34, SOS: 31] TCU? More like VCU! Right? No? Fair enough. The Horned Frogs' 62-61 win against Texas Tech on Tuesday did feature a little bit of luck down the stretch -- a foul call with 1.4 seconds to play that left Tech coach Chris Beard, um, less than pleased -- but it was more of the garden-variety win in the final second than either of the Rams' insanely lucky finishes over the past week. Anyway, TCU's win was one more step toward its first NCAA tournament berth since 1998, and it's Jamie Dixon's first season. (Note to self: Remember to mention Jamie Dixon when coach of the year awards are brought up.)
Kansas State [16-8 (5-6), RPI: 41, SOS: 40] Kansas is merciless to most of its Big 12 competition, but the Jayhawks were especially tough on K-State this season. The Wildcats were painfully close to a win at Allen Fieldhouse when Svi Mykhailiuk got away with a blatant travel. KU won, 90-88. On Monday, the Jayhawks held on for a 74-71 win in Manhattan, and we assume Bruce Weber did not console himself with the fact that at least a terrible call didn't cost his team the game. The good news? K-State has played really well all season: It won at Baylor on Feb. 4, and it has another chance to add to its burgeoning resume during Saturday's trip to West Virginia.
Iowa State [14-9 (6-5), RPI: 48, SOS: 33] Despite Texas' struggles this season, Iowa State's loss in Austin on Tuesday was not exactly the shocker of the century. Beating Kansas in Allen Fieldhouse -- as ISU did on Feb. 4 -- takes a toll. It's difficult, if not impossible, to sustain that level of intensity in a sleepy gym like the Frank Erwin Center. Saturday, when similarly struggling Oklahoma comes to Ames, offers a good chance for the Cyclones to refocus.
Texas Tech [16-8 (4-7), RPI: 87, SOS: 157] Similar to West Virginia, Texas Tech's weak nonconference schedule has doomed it to have an unacceptably high RPI for actual NCAA tournament consideration. The 70s are a stretch; the 80s are a wasteland. The committee may take note of wins over West Virginia and Kansas State, but the Red Raiders will have to get their numbers in order first. You know what would help? Beating Kansas and Baylor -- who both play in Lubbock in the next four days.
Locks
Teams that should be in: West Virginia
Work left to do: Oklahoma State, TCU, Kansas State, Iowa State, Texas Tech
Baylor nearly lost its third straight game Wednesday after almost surrendering a 13-point lead it held with 4:14 to play at Oklahoma State. The Watch has no rooting interest, but we admit to being relieved by the Bears' win, if only to prevent the nascent "they're overrated" nonsense people seem so strangely eager to apply to this one program in particular. (Meanwhile, be warned: Oklahoma State can cook.)West Virginia [19-5 (7-4), RPI: 32, SOS: 114] As stated in the intro, West Virginia will get to lock status sooner rather than later, though Wednesday's road win at Oklahoma isn't enough to get them there just yet. Beating Kansas State at home Saturday might do the job.
Oklahoma State [15-9 (4-7), RPI: 30, SOS: 10] Baylor went cold and got tight down the stretch in its nervy win over Oklahoma State, but do not discount the Cowboys' thrilling late run. Brad Underwood's team had scored 1.22 points per trip in its previous four games, which included 82 in 63 possessions at West Virginia. Turnovers and shaky defense are going to be problems in perpetuity, but when you score it like that, you can get by with both. This is a team peaking at the perfect time.
TCU [17-7 (6-5), RPI: 34, SOS: 31] TCU? More like VCU! Right? No? Fair enough. The Horned Frogs' 62-61 win against Texas Tech on Tuesday did feature a little bit of luck down the stretch -- a foul call with 1.4 seconds to play that left Tech coach Chris Beard, um, less than pleased -- but it was more of the garden-variety win in the final second than either of the Rams' insanely lucky finishes over the past week. Anyway, TCU's win was one more step toward its first NCAA tournament berth since 1998, and it's Jamie Dixon's first season. (Note to self: Remember to mention Jamie Dixon when coach of the year awards are brought up.)
Kansas State [16-8 (5-6), RPI: 41, SOS: 40] Kansas is merciless to most of its Big 12 competition, but the Jayhawks were especially tough on K-State this season. The Wildcats were painfully close to a win at Allen Fieldhouse when Svi Mykhailiuk got away with a blatant travel. KU won, 90-88. On Monday, the Jayhawks held on for a 74-71 win in Manhattan, and we assume Bruce Weber did not console himself with the fact that at least a terrible call didn't cost his team the game. The good news? K-State has played really well all season: It won at Baylor on Feb. 4, and it has another chance to add to its burgeoning resume during Saturday's trip to West Virginia.
Iowa State [14-9 (6-5), RPI: 48, SOS: 33] Despite Texas' struggles this season, Iowa State's loss in Austin on Tuesday was not exactly the shocker of the century. Beating Kansas in Allen Fieldhouse -- as ISU did on Feb. 4 -- takes a toll. It's difficult, if not impossible, to sustain that level of intensity in a sleepy gym like the Frank Erwin Center. Saturday, when similarly struggling Oklahoma comes to Ames, offers a good chance for the Cyclones to refocus.
Texas Tech [16-8 (4-7), RPI: 87, SOS: 157] Similar to West Virginia, Texas Tech's weak nonconference schedule has doomed it to have an unacceptably high RPI for actual NCAA tournament consideration. The 70s are a stretch; the 80s are a wasteland. The committee may take note of wins over West Virginia and Kansas State, but the Red Raiders will have to get their numbers in order first. You know what would help? Beating Kansas and Baylor -- who both play in Lubbock in the next four days.
Locks
