Motivation is by far the biggest factor here. Kansas State returns to its first New Year's Six bowl in a decade (2013 Fiesta), while Alabama missed the CFP for just the second time since it began following the 2014 season. The Crimson Tide did show up the last time they fell short of the top 4, crushing Michigan in the 2000 Citrus Bowl, but opt-outs likely will be a significant factor for coach Nick Saban's team. Will quarterback Bryce Young, linebacker Will Anderson Jr. and others even play? Kansas State can hold its own with anyone, and boasts standouts on both offense (running back Deuce Vaughn, quarterback Will Howard, receiver Malik Knowles) and defense (defensive end Felix Anudike-Uzomah, cornerback Julius Brents, linebacker Austin Moore). Maybe the more talented Tide roll, but I like the more engaged team to pull off the upset. Once again, Ty Zentner kicks the game-winning field goal.
Prediction: Kansas State 31, Alabama 30
Prediction: Kansas State 31, Alabama 30
