A disclaimer; I'm probably going to be more positive about the offense than many want to hear and I'm good with that. I've probably been kinder to Messingham this season than most, but I won't disagree that the offense must get better for this team to go from a 7-8 win team and middle tier bowls to 9+ wins and contending for a Big 12 title. I will get into some thoughts on that later and I don't intend for this to be a sunshine pumping post or to say "it's all on the players". I haven't had time to make all the GIFs, but I will go drive by drive a bit with some thoughts as well.
When it comes to personnel and formations, the Navy game wasn't atypical of what we've come to expect this season, especially as the season progressed. 1 back sets became featured and it is notable that 2 of the 8 two back formations started as 1 back before Lenners shifted back to the FB spot. Frankly, one critique from the game would be that I would have been fine with no 2 back sets outside of short yardage situations. Shotgun, 1 back, and spread formations were all very effective featuring success rates in the high 40s or better and nearly at least 5.7 yards per play. The most successful formations were 3 wide with and H or TE and 1 back or double tights with double splits (many name it Ace). In 14 snaps those two formations gained 118 yards at over 8 yards per snap and a 79% success rate. The problem was a) K-State just didn't get enough snaps and b) key mistakes stopped several drives.
Drive 1 featured the drop by Lenners to start the game, Thompson missing the wheel route to Brown, and Brooks dropping a sure TD after he and Thompson both executed the scramble drill well. As others have said, in a game where the possessions are this low those are some key mistakes you can't make, although no one thought the Cats would have only 6 drives and 39 snaps.
Drive 2 was probably the weakest of the day, especially since it started with a poorly executed 2 back power run. However, the jet to Knowles had a huge numbers advantage, but K-State missed not just one, but 2 cut blocks in space. All year the edge runs have been key and when K-State has been poor blocking the edge it takes away a key part of this offense, even if the give on power read is only used a few times a game.
Drive 3 had K-State with 1st and 10 inside the Navy 20 and again a 2 power run lost a yard. The next play was probably the key and indicative of many fan's frustration. K-State caught Navy in a mixed coverage, but Knowles in man to man to the short side of the field. The corner showed bump and run, but bailed at the snap so Thompson looked away from the throw. However, it was still man to man with no safety help and by the time Knowles was 10 yards down the field he was even with the Navy corner. However, by that point Thompson looked elsewhere, but I think if he takes a shot there it has a chance and I take it with Knowles one on one.
Drive 4 started promising with a KO return to the Navy 40 and then a couple nice plays and a 4th down sneak for what would have been a first down at the Navy 30. But then a silly personal foul was followed by the botched snap and 18 yard loss. K-State never recovered from 2nd and 28, but that was all self inflicted.
Drive 5 was the other 3 and out. Actually the start was a good call, but Navy defended QB option off of jet sweep really well. The Cats then gained 3 yards on a play action scramble to set up a 3rd and short, but again a dumb mistake with a false start forced a 3rd and 9 instead of 3rd and 4. Thompson gained 4 yards on the ensuing 3rd down scamble.
Drive 6 was the best of the day clearly with 6 successful plays in 6 snaps and a score.
The last play was desperation, so I didn't even include it in the chart.
When looking at the play calls, again its a case of sticking with what works, the low number of snaps, and the lack of big plays, especially in the passing game. K-State was really good with the RB zone/option game and we were on track with what the Cats ran in Big 12 play. Power was poor, but it wasn't featured. However, it became magnified because it started drive 2 poorly and put the Cats in 2nd 11 inside the Navy 20 on drive 3. The other power run was followed by Thompson's QB sneak and the ensuing personal foul before the botched snap, so I'll accept an argument that forcing that extra snap because of a poor power run led to those 2 key big mistakes.
However, the biggest thing K-State couldn't exploit was a Navy defense that had been prone to giving up big plays all season. Clearly one was missed on drive 1, but another wasn't even really close until drive 6. I will say that Navy did a great job of confusing both Thompson the offensive line with a somewhat unconventional approach on 2nd or 3rd and long. They would often load the LOS with 5-6 guys, then drop 1 or 2 in coverage and play zone behind it. My impression is that K-State came into the game expecting man in those situations because several times we ran the short crossers that have been effective all season, but Thompson had no where to go quickly and by the time he tried to progress to a 2nd or 3rd read he had pressure. I think the Cats had adjusted well by that final drive, but again they only had 30 snaps to work with before that to make that adjustment.
This is where I agree that K-State's defense did a decent job overall, but by letting Navy convert so often on 3rd down, they simply couldn't get off the field and give the offense (or return game) more opportunities. As a result, a few poorly timed power runs, key drops, and a couple poorly blocked edge runs only become more magnified and much more difficult to overcome.
As I've said a couple times after the game, the biggest key will be rethinking if 2 back and power run can really be something that this program builds the offense around. Clearly the change to zone and option during the year shows that the staff went that direction during the season, but what if those first 2 power runs were Gilbert gives on zone read for 5 or 6 yards? Besides the drops, just that may change the complexion of a couple of drives and therefore a couple of the game. Also, finding some other counters for teams that are able to confuse Thompson's reads like we saw in this game and several others this season. Looking back I think there was a concerted effort to get Knowles involved, but IMO you have to take a chance or two down the field. Also, Youngblood has to become a factor at receiver and he simply wasn't there this year. Still, there are some decent pieces coming back at receiver next season and hopefully an improved passing game leads to better running as well.
When it comes to personnel and formations, the Navy game wasn't atypical of what we've come to expect this season, especially as the season progressed. 1 back sets became featured and it is notable that 2 of the 8 two back formations started as 1 back before Lenners shifted back to the FB spot. Frankly, one critique from the game would be that I would have been fine with no 2 back sets outside of short yardage situations. Shotgun, 1 back, and spread formations were all very effective featuring success rates in the high 40s or better and nearly at least 5.7 yards per play. The most successful formations were 3 wide with and H or TE and 1 back or double tights with double splits (many name it Ace). In 14 snaps those two formations gained 118 yards at over 8 yards per snap and a 79% success rate. The problem was a) K-State just didn't get enough snaps and b) key mistakes stopped several drives.
Drive 1 featured the drop by Lenners to start the game, Thompson missing the wheel route to Brown, and Brooks dropping a sure TD after he and Thompson both executed the scramble drill well. As others have said, in a game where the possessions are this low those are some key mistakes you can't make, although no one thought the Cats would have only 6 drives and 39 snaps.
Drive 2 was probably the weakest of the day, especially since it started with a poorly executed 2 back power run. However, the jet to Knowles had a huge numbers advantage, but K-State missed not just one, but 2 cut blocks in space. All year the edge runs have been key and when K-State has been poor blocking the edge it takes away a key part of this offense, even if the give on power read is only used a few times a game.
Drive 3 had K-State with 1st and 10 inside the Navy 20 and again a 2 power run lost a yard. The next play was probably the key and indicative of many fan's frustration. K-State caught Navy in a mixed coverage, but Knowles in man to man to the short side of the field. The corner showed bump and run, but bailed at the snap so Thompson looked away from the throw. However, it was still man to man with no safety help and by the time Knowles was 10 yards down the field he was even with the Navy corner. However, by that point Thompson looked elsewhere, but I think if he takes a shot there it has a chance and I take it with Knowles one on one.
Drive 4 started promising with a KO return to the Navy 40 and then a couple nice plays and a 4th down sneak for what would have been a first down at the Navy 30. But then a silly personal foul was followed by the botched snap and 18 yard loss. K-State never recovered from 2nd and 28, but that was all self inflicted.
Drive 5 was the other 3 and out. Actually the start was a good call, but Navy defended QB option off of jet sweep really well. The Cats then gained 3 yards on a play action scramble to set up a 3rd and short, but again a dumb mistake with a false start forced a 3rd and 9 instead of 3rd and 4. Thompson gained 4 yards on the ensuing 3rd down scamble.
Drive 6 was the best of the day clearly with 6 successful plays in 6 snaps and a score.
The last play was desperation, so I didn't even include it in the chart.
When looking at the play calls, again its a case of sticking with what works, the low number of snaps, and the lack of big plays, especially in the passing game. K-State was really good with the RB zone/option game and we were on track with what the Cats ran in Big 12 play. Power was poor, but it wasn't featured. However, it became magnified because it started drive 2 poorly and put the Cats in 2nd 11 inside the Navy 20 on drive 3. The other power run was followed by Thompson's QB sneak and the ensuing personal foul before the botched snap, so I'll accept an argument that forcing that extra snap because of a poor power run led to those 2 key big mistakes.
However, the biggest thing K-State couldn't exploit was a Navy defense that had been prone to giving up big plays all season. Clearly one was missed on drive 1, but another wasn't even really close until drive 6. I will say that Navy did a great job of confusing both Thompson the offensive line with a somewhat unconventional approach on 2nd or 3rd and long. They would often load the LOS with 5-6 guys, then drop 1 or 2 in coverage and play zone behind it. My impression is that K-State came into the game expecting man in those situations because several times we ran the short crossers that have been effective all season, but Thompson had no where to go quickly and by the time he tried to progress to a 2nd or 3rd read he had pressure. I think the Cats had adjusted well by that final drive, but again they only had 30 snaps to work with before that to make that adjustment.
This is where I agree that K-State's defense did a decent job overall, but by letting Navy convert so often on 3rd down, they simply couldn't get off the field and give the offense (or return game) more opportunities. As a result, a few poorly timed power runs, key drops, and a couple poorly blocked edge runs only become more magnified and much more difficult to overcome.
As I've said a couple times after the game, the biggest key will be rethinking if 2 back and power run can really be something that this program builds the offense around. Clearly the change to zone and option during the year shows that the staff went that direction during the season, but what if those first 2 power runs were Gilbert gives on zone read for 5 or 6 yards? Besides the drops, just that may change the complexion of a couple of drives and therefore a couple of the game. Also, finding some other counters for teams that are able to confuse Thompson's reads like we saw in this game and several others this season. Looking back I think there was a concerted effort to get Knowles involved, but IMO you have to take a chance or two down the field. Also, Youngblood has to become a factor at receiver and he simply wasn't there this year. Still, there are some decent pieces coming back at receiver next season and hopefully an improved passing game leads to better running as well.
