No. 17 Kansas State Wildcats
Best case: A Big 12 title repeat. The Wildcats face plenty of potential toss-up games -- home games against TCU and a potentially resurgent Baylor, road trips to Missouri, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and Texas (and rival Kansas???) -- but they might only be a true underdog once, at Texas. If their remodeled receiving corps and secondary hold up and they find some of the same late-game magic that drove them win three of four one-score finishes last year, they have a clear path to another Big 12 championship appearance. And if you can make it to the big game, you can win it. They probably have too many toss-ups to win them all and reach the CFP, but an 11-2 season and title repeat are on the table.Worst case: It's really hard to win most or all of your close games for two straight years. If said receiver and secondary turnover flips the big-play battle in favor of KSU opponents, it could also flip quite a few games. In the Big 12, you're constantly playing in tight contests, and if most or all of them go against the Wildcats, a floor of 6-6 or so -- the same regular-season record that last year's defending Big 12 champion (Baylor) suffered -- is a possibility. -- Bill Connelly
