It's Big 12 opening week for most teams.
Oklahoma and TCU have opened already and I was REALLY looking forward to Texas/Baylor yesterday but alas...Baylor. To that end, Baylor's game on Tuesday against Tarleton State has already been canceled and the odds of the highly anticipated Baylor/K-State game getting played on Saturday are not real good. I know, I know, it's disappointing. It was the first real chance for K-State to get to show out on the national stage.
As we lead into this weeks games, let's take a quick look at what our friend Ken thinks about the Big 12 teams currently:
2. Baylor 4-0
5. Texas 5-1
6. West Virginia 6-1
8. Texas Tech 6-1
9. Kansas 6-1
34. Oklahoma 3-1
44. Oklahoma State 6-0
63. TCU 5-2
78. Iowa State 1-2
156. K-State 2-4
There are no Big 12 games on the schedule today, but the conference season kicks off in earnest tomorrow night at 9:00 Eastern with overrated Iowa State hosting upstart K-State looking to build on their current winning streak. We don't currently have a betting line for the heavyweight showdown, but you can bet that at some point in the first 2 minutes of the broadcast, the announcers will mention Farmageddon at least twice, Hilton Magic at least 3 times and Brock Purdy at least 10.
Now, let's take a look at the teams as they match up.
ESPN BPI really doesn't give plucky K-State much of a chance in this one. The BPI Matchup Predictor likes Iowa State 82.3% of the time.
Iowa State is currently on a 2 game losing streak having taken mighty South Dakota State right to the wire before ultimately falling 71-68 and then getting barely nipped in Iowa City 105-77. Their strategy for defending NPOY candidate Luke Garza was outstanding. The idea that they could simply let Iowa build so big a lead that Iowa was force to take Garza out limited the great player to only 17 minutes in the game. It was a pretty ingenious way to hold him to 34 points.
To say that Iowa State is not very deep right now is slightly an understatement. They only play 7 guys with the starting 5 all playing close to 30 min per game. 6th man Darlinstone Dubar is averaging about 15 min per game and their only sub in the front court is George Condit who is averaging about 10 min per game.
Iowa State plays a guard heavy lineup with four guards with 6'6 Javan Johnson playing the 4. He has basically been their Mark Vital so far averaging almost 14 points, 4 rebounds, 5 assists and 1.5 blocks per game. He will haul it up too. He is averaging 7 3 point attempts per game, 21 total, with only 5 makes. Assuming K-State starts out in a four guard lineup, It will be either Dajuan Gordon or Selton Miguel that will matchup with Johnson. Personally, I would put Gordon on him and allow Gordon to sag off of him and provide help on drives to the basket. Force Johnson to make enough jump shots to beat you while he isn't shooting well. That said, Johnson was a career 39% shooter from deep at Troy before he transferred.
Almost all of Iowa State's scoring comes from it's guards.
Illinois/Depaul Transfer Jalen Coleman-Lands is their leading scorer averaging 15.3 points, 4.3 rebounds and 1.3 assists per game. I would have Selton start out defensively on Lands. He is a big strong 6th year senior, and he is looking to get his. He isn't much of a facilitator and he will turn it over at a very high clip. I think you can put Miguel on him and tell him not to help off if possible. Crowd him on the three point line and force him to put the ball on the deck. He is averaging 42% on 8 three point attempts per game. He wants to shoot it from deep. He is only averaging a little more than 3.5 2 point attempts per game.
The second leading scorer is Iowa State's best player, Rasir Bolton. I think this is who Mike McGuirl starts out on. Bolton is averaging 14.7 points, 6.3 rebounds, 5.7 assists and 3 steals per game. He has an absurd PER of 26.0 so far on the season. He is the opposite of Coleman-Lands. While he is happy to shoot open 3's (4.3 attempts per game) most of his damage is coming in close. He is shooting over 70% from 2 point range on 7 attempts per game. He is also causing havoc on the defensive end averaging 3 steals per game.
The 4th guard matchup should be incredibly fun to watch. It pits two of the smallest players in the big 12 against each other in Nijel Pack and 5'9 150 pound Memphis transfer Tyler Harris. All Harris wants to do is launch. He is the third guy on the team averaging at least 7 three point attempts per game. In case you haven't figured it out yet, Iowa State wants to shoot the three ball as often as possible. They are currently averaging almost 30 attempts from deep per game and making 10 of them. They have a very low free throw rate averaging only 8 attempts per game.
If I were Steve Prohm, I would be focusing on force feeding the ball to Soloman Young in this contest though. One would have to assume that Davion Bradford will get another start coming off of his career performance against the Mighty Milwaukee squad and that should be a matchup that Prohm would love. Don't get me wrong, I am as high on Bradford offensively as I have been on any Bruce big, but guarding Young will be a totally different proposition than anything he has faced so far. Young is a fifth year senior that comes in at a stout 6'8 and 250ish. He is averaging just under 11 points per game and is strictly an underneath the rim type of player. Bradford won't have to chase him around, but Young is the type of player that could get Bradford in early foul trouble which would lead to Linguard or (god forbid) Antonio Gordon having to guard him.
That brings me to the Gordon twins. As far as Antonio is concerned, I just don't see how he can play more than a few minutes in this game. He can't guard Javan Johnson who will blow by him over and over again at the 4 and he can't guard Young who will simply overpower him. If he plays more than 8 minutes or so, things have probably not gone very well.
DJG is a different story. If K-State is going to have a chance to pull the upset, he is going to have to get out of his funk and play well in this game. It's a game that should fit his skill set as it will be a little more open and flowing. Iowa State is turning the ball over about 14 times per game. That should give the Cats a chance to get out and score in transition. He has struggled to shoot the ball so far this year, but I believe part of that is the shots that he is being asked to take. I just don't think he is a guy that is all that comfortable shooting off of screens or from the top of the key/wings. He is a catch and shoot guy from the corner (basically the shots that you saw Rudi make against Milwaukee). Iowa State isn't the bastion of defensive basketball, so if he can get his feet set and catch a couple of kick outs, he could knock down a couple of shots and start to regain some confidence. He is playing with his head down right now. If I was Bruce, I would tell him to stop worrying about making mistakes, just go play and try to have a little fun. As long as he isn't in foul trouble, he is going to play 30 minutes, so go make 4 or 5 hustle plays that only he can make and win the play hard chart. That will be a big step forward.
The other key is McGuirl on the defensive end. He simply has to play harder. He can't rest on the defensive end. If he is guarding against Bolton like I expect, if he rests, Iowa State is going to get a bunch of wide open looks from three. Bolton will get anywhere he wants on the floor against lazy defense and that will cause lots of help rotations and kick outs to wide open shooters.
There are a few things I think K-State can take advantage of on the offensive end.
1. Transition baskets. Iowa State will turn it over. If K-State can make JCL put the ball on the floor, he will turn it over around a 40% clip. K-State needs to take advantage of those opportunities.
2. Pack to Bradford/Linguard. Tyler Harris doesn't even try to defend anybody. He makes David Sloan look like Barry Brown. Pack should be able to get anywhere he wants with the basketball and Iowa State spreads their defense out to the shooters on the perimeter. They don't give lots of help, so that should leave Young having to provide help on Pack going to the rim. That in turn should leave plenty of open lob attempts for Bradford and Linguard.
3. K-State's depth advantage. I know it's hard to believe, but K-State actually has better depth than Iowa State does. I wasn't kidding when I said Iowa State barely plays six guys. If K-State can move well without the ball and force Iowa State to chase a little on the defensive end, that could go a long ways towards getting them tired and taking away their jump shooting legs in the second half. If K-State stands around on offense and pounds the ball at the top of the key for 25 seconds, Iowa State will have plenty of time to rest on each possession and it could get ugly.
On the defensive end, you have to do exactly the opposite of what Bruce said he was working on with his guys. If you tighten the defense and force jump shots against Iowa State (especially at home) they will shoot you out of the gym. You have to get right up in the shooters and force them to put the ball on the deck. I know K-State has been one of the worst 2 pt fg defenses in the country, but other than Bolton and Young, nobody else on Iowa State wants to even attempt two point shots.
They say style makes fights. Well, in this flyweight matchup, the team that is able to dictate it's pace will come out on top.
My prediction:
Iowa State 82
K-State 66
Oklahoma and TCU have opened already and I was REALLY looking forward to Texas/Baylor yesterday but alas...Baylor. To that end, Baylor's game on Tuesday against Tarleton State has already been canceled and the odds of the highly anticipated Baylor/K-State game getting played on Saturday are not real good. I know, I know, it's disappointing. It was the first real chance for K-State to get to show out on the national stage.
As we lead into this weeks games, let's take a quick look at what our friend Ken thinks about the Big 12 teams currently:
2. Baylor 4-0
5. Texas 5-1
6. West Virginia 6-1
8. Texas Tech 6-1
9. Kansas 6-1
34. Oklahoma 3-1
44. Oklahoma State 6-0
63. TCU 5-2
78. Iowa State 1-2
156. K-State 2-4
There are no Big 12 games on the schedule today, but the conference season kicks off in earnest tomorrow night at 9:00 Eastern with overrated Iowa State hosting upstart K-State looking to build on their current winning streak. We don't currently have a betting line for the heavyweight showdown, but you can bet that at some point in the first 2 minutes of the broadcast, the announcers will mention Farmageddon at least twice, Hilton Magic at least 3 times and Brock Purdy at least 10.
Now, let's take a look at the teams as they match up.
ESPN BPI really doesn't give plucky K-State much of a chance in this one. The BPI Matchup Predictor likes Iowa State 82.3% of the time.
Iowa State is currently on a 2 game losing streak having taken mighty South Dakota State right to the wire before ultimately falling 71-68 and then getting barely nipped in Iowa City 105-77. Their strategy for defending NPOY candidate Luke Garza was outstanding. The idea that they could simply let Iowa build so big a lead that Iowa was force to take Garza out limited the great player to only 17 minutes in the game. It was a pretty ingenious way to hold him to 34 points.
To say that Iowa State is not very deep right now is slightly an understatement. They only play 7 guys with the starting 5 all playing close to 30 min per game. 6th man Darlinstone Dubar is averaging about 15 min per game and their only sub in the front court is George Condit who is averaging about 10 min per game.
Iowa State plays a guard heavy lineup with four guards with 6'6 Javan Johnson playing the 4. He has basically been their Mark Vital so far averaging almost 14 points, 4 rebounds, 5 assists and 1.5 blocks per game. He will haul it up too. He is averaging 7 3 point attempts per game, 21 total, with only 5 makes. Assuming K-State starts out in a four guard lineup, It will be either Dajuan Gordon or Selton Miguel that will matchup with Johnson. Personally, I would put Gordon on him and allow Gordon to sag off of him and provide help on drives to the basket. Force Johnson to make enough jump shots to beat you while he isn't shooting well. That said, Johnson was a career 39% shooter from deep at Troy before he transferred.
Almost all of Iowa State's scoring comes from it's guards.
Illinois/Depaul Transfer Jalen Coleman-Lands is their leading scorer averaging 15.3 points, 4.3 rebounds and 1.3 assists per game. I would have Selton start out defensively on Lands. He is a big strong 6th year senior, and he is looking to get his. He isn't much of a facilitator and he will turn it over at a very high clip. I think you can put Miguel on him and tell him not to help off if possible. Crowd him on the three point line and force him to put the ball on the deck. He is averaging 42% on 8 three point attempts per game. He wants to shoot it from deep. He is only averaging a little more than 3.5 2 point attempts per game.
The second leading scorer is Iowa State's best player, Rasir Bolton. I think this is who Mike McGuirl starts out on. Bolton is averaging 14.7 points, 6.3 rebounds, 5.7 assists and 3 steals per game. He has an absurd PER of 26.0 so far on the season. He is the opposite of Coleman-Lands. While he is happy to shoot open 3's (4.3 attempts per game) most of his damage is coming in close. He is shooting over 70% from 2 point range on 7 attempts per game. He is also causing havoc on the defensive end averaging 3 steals per game.
The 4th guard matchup should be incredibly fun to watch. It pits two of the smallest players in the big 12 against each other in Nijel Pack and 5'9 150 pound Memphis transfer Tyler Harris. All Harris wants to do is launch. He is the third guy on the team averaging at least 7 three point attempts per game. In case you haven't figured it out yet, Iowa State wants to shoot the three ball as often as possible. They are currently averaging almost 30 attempts from deep per game and making 10 of them. They have a very low free throw rate averaging only 8 attempts per game.
If I were Steve Prohm, I would be focusing on force feeding the ball to Soloman Young in this contest though. One would have to assume that Davion Bradford will get another start coming off of his career performance against the Mighty Milwaukee squad and that should be a matchup that Prohm would love. Don't get me wrong, I am as high on Bradford offensively as I have been on any Bruce big, but guarding Young will be a totally different proposition than anything he has faced so far. Young is a fifth year senior that comes in at a stout 6'8 and 250ish. He is averaging just under 11 points per game and is strictly an underneath the rim type of player. Bradford won't have to chase him around, but Young is the type of player that could get Bradford in early foul trouble which would lead to Linguard or (god forbid) Antonio Gordon having to guard him.
That brings me to the Gordon twins. As far as Antonio is concerned, I just don't see how he can play more than a few minutes in this game. He can't guard Javan Johnson who will blow by him over and over again at the 4 and he can't guard Young who will simply overpower him. If he plays more than 8 minutes or so, things have probably not gone very well.
DJG is a different story. If K-State is going to have a chance to pull the upset, he is going to have to get out of his funk and play well in this game. It's a game that should fit his skill set as it will be a little more open and flowing. Iowa State is turning the ball over about 14 times per game. That should give the Cats a chance to get out and score in transition. He has struggled to shoot the ball so far this year, but I believe part of that is the shots that he is being asked to take. I just don't think he is a guy that is all that comfortable shooting off of screens or from the top of the key/wings. He is a catch and shoot guy from the corner (basically the shots that you saw Rudi make against Milwaukee). Iowa State isn't the bastion of defensive basketball, so if he can get his feet set and catch a couple of kick outs, he could knock down a couple of shots and start to regain some confidence. He is playing with his head down right now. If I was Bruce, I would tell him to stop worrying about making mistakes, just go play and try to have a little fun. As long as he isn't in foul trouble, he is going to play 30 minutes, so go make 4 or 5 hustle plays that only he can make and win the play hard chart. That will be a big step forward.
The other key is McGuirl on the defensive end. He simply has to play harder. He can't rest on the defensive end. If he is guarding against Bolton like I expect, if he rests, Iowa State is going to get a bunch of wide open looks from three. Bolton will get anywhere he wants on the floor against lazy defense and that will cause lots of help rotations and kick outs to wide open shooters.
There are a few things I think K-State can take advantage of on the offensive end.
1. Transition baskets. Iowa State will turn it over. If K-State can make JCL put the ball on the floor, he will turn it over around a 40% clip. K-State needs to take advantage of those opportunities.
2. Pack to Bradford/Linguard. Tyler Harris doesn't even try to defend anybody. He makes David Sloan look like Barry Brown. Pack should be able to get anywhere he wants with the basketball and Iowa State spreads their defense out to the shooters on the perimeter. They don't give lots of help, so that should leave Young having to provide help on Pack going to the rim. That in turn should leave plenty of open lob attempts for Bradford and Linguard.
3. K-State's depth advantage. I know it's hard to believe, but K-State actually has better depth than Iowa State does. I wasn't kidding when I said Iowa State barely plays six guys. If K-State can move well without the ball and force Iowa State to chase a little on the defensive end, that could go a long ways towards getting them tired and taking away their jump shooting legs in the second half. If K-State stands around on offense and pounds the ball at the top of the key for 25 seconds, Iowa State will have plenty of time to rest on each possession and it could get ugly.
On the defensive end, you have to do exactly the opposite of what Bruce said he was working on with his guys. If you tighten the defense and force jump shots against Iowa State (especially at home) they will shoot you out of the gym. You have to get right up in the shooters and force them to put the ball on the deck. I know K-State has been one of the worst 2 pt fg defenses in the country, but other than Bolton and Young, nobody else on Iowa State wants to even attempt two point shots.
They say style makes fights. Well, in this flyweight matchup, the team that is able to dictate it's pace will come out on top.
My prediction:
Iowa State 82
K-State 66
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