I have pretty much stayed off the board since Friday. I simply didn't have much positive to say and it could have gotten a little out of hand.
I shall try to keep this as non-negative as I can.
It was funny to me that I came back on this morning and @willie2007 had bumped my Bruce vs Beard poll from January. I have spent some time (probably too much) thinking about the two of them and the two programs over the weekend. Man, do I really like Beard. I love the way that K-State plays defense, but the difference in the two is the freedom that Beard allows his guys to play on the offensive end. Bruce really wants to limit possessions on both ends where Beard isn't afraid to unleash his team on offense.
There have been multiple threads about Barry sitting on Friday so there really isn't much reason to rehash and rehash it, but I think it was possibly the worst coaching mistake of Bruce's career at K-State. I simply don't think it can be overstated how bad it was. Yes, K-State should have played better, but K-State had a double digit lead in the first half and really controlled the game. Sitting Barry for almost 15 minutes and allowing UCI to chip away at the lead and then hitting the three at the buzzer for the tie at halftime simply changed everything about the game.
I hope Bruce feels miserable for sitting his Senior PG for 15 minutes in the last game of his career. He absolutely should.
That's pretty much all I am going to say about Friday's game. I just read Matt's article breaking down the returning roster and the recruits. I thought it was a really good breakdown. I don't necessarily agree with all of it and I will give some of my thoughts.
I have big questions as to where the scoring is going to come from on a consistent basis next year. The outlook for this year's team changed down the stretch after Barry injured his knee and could no longer go get his own basket. I simply don't see anybody on the roster right now that you can set a high ball screen for at the end of the shot clock and have that player go get a basket.
I have tried to read everyone's thoughts on the roster as it returns and what the team needs going forward.
So much of the talk is about needing a legitimate big man and a guy that could score in the post. I think that is quite a bit overblown for multiple reasons. Hell, Mawien had 14 and 12 on Friday and we lost. If you would have told me that he was going to put up those numbers, I would have told you that the game would be a blowout with K-State in a great position to get Barry 15 minutes of rest.
I do think there is going to be some movement and one of the current bigs (Love) is not going to be on the roster come June 1, but replacing him with a guy like Ugboh simply makes no sense. The single biggest reason that guys like Love and Shadd can't get on the floor for Bruce is because they can't defend out to the perimeter and they can't move well enough defending the pick and roll to be able to hedge and recover. As un-athletic as Stockard is, he is still mobile enough to get in a stance and do a competent job guarding the pick and roll.
The defense that K-State is employing (and recruiting to) does not allow for a 6'10 guy to stand in the paint and try to block shots and rebound. There is simply no place for that guy on the floor. That's why Ugboh makes no sense to me. If you switched Ugboh and Love on this year's rosters, Ugboh would be the guy that fans are screaming to be cut and Love would be the JUCO guy dunking all over 6'6 white guys.
I think the thing that has to change with the K-State big guys is how they are being coached on the offensive end of the floor. All you have to do is watch what Baylor does with Gillespie to see the difference in how our bigs are being coached to play around the rim vs a guy that just attacks the rim. Not many people know it, but Gillespie was a division III player that walked on to Baylor. He is not some big time recruit that simply out athletes people. But he moves his feet well, he is always ready to catch and he attacks the basket fearlessly. That also allows him to get to the freethrow line. Mawien should be a 6 attempt per game freethrow guy, but almost every move he makes is finesse. He simply doesn't force the officials to blow the whistle. This was probably my biggest complaint about Dean Wade over his career. When you catch and go strong to the rim with a quick and decisive move, defenders simply don't have time to recover and get in a good guarding position. When you catch, put the ball on the floor and make multiple fakes and try to lay the ball up off the glass, the defender has plenty of time to get into position and unless the foul is egregious, it simply isn't going to get called.
I think Trice is going to become a serviceable 5 for next year's team and with Mak, Trice and Stockard (and hopefully Shadd takes a jump), there is plenty of big man depth. All of that changes in the next two weeks when Sneed declares as an early entrant for the NBA draft.
The only surprise here is if Sneed comes out and says he is returning for his Senior season. That would truly be stunning. We can debate all day long about whether he is ready or if coming back for his senior year would be beneficial to his development. It doesn't matter. The understanding that I have is Sneed is ready to make some money wherever that ends up being. There is simply no guarantee that staying another year would make him any more draftable and the evidence suggests just the opposite. Even after being hurt for the tournament last year, Dean Wade was still on many draft boards as a 2nd round pick if he came out. Coming back for his senior season and getting hurt again has made his draft stock almost non-existent. The best he can hope for is to get healthy by the NBA pre-draft camp and have a dominant performance there. Coming back to K-State to play the power forward position and get physically beat up again won't do anything for his draft stock.
Here is the issue with Sneed declaring for the draft even if he decided to come back to K-State. The NCAA has changed it's draft rules for this upcoming draft. It used to be that players could declare and then they had a certain amount of time that they could stay in the draft before having to pull their name out. That is no longer the case. The NCAA will now allow non-drafted players to return to school if they choose for one more year. That means that Sneed could stay in the draft until it's completion at the end of June and then return to school if he isn't drafted. That means that the K-State coaches can't make any changes to that spot on the roster until almost July.
If Sneed does in fact leave, to me it means Mak plays the 4 and Trice plays the 5. It also puts incredible pressure on the guard/wings.
I agree with @Matt Hall that I think SNW, McGuirl and Diarra are the three starters as fall camp opens next year. I would love to see D. Gordon come in during the summer and put such pressure on the current guards that he becomes part of that starting rotation and McGuirl becomes the sixth man. If Gordon could do that, you could have a rotation with SNW at the 1, Diarra at the 2 and Gordon at the 3. That's three really big and long guards that can switch every position defensively, really rebound and can all push the ball in transition.
I think Gordon is the only instant impact recruit in this class. I think his game translates immediately with his length and ability to defend. He isn't a great shooter but he is a natural scorer that doesn't need a ton of shots to get his points. He is also accustomed to not having to be the guy every night. That has been a big adjustment for SNW. He was a very high usage guy with a ton of volume in high school. He has had to adjust to that at this level and it has taken him a while. The good news is, I absolutely see improvement in exactly that area.
There were actually two times against UCI where he passed up what was a pretty open look at the top of the key to get K-State into it's offense. Just a few short weeks ago, there was no question that that shot was going up every time it presented itself (and even sometimes it didn't).
I think he is going to make a huge leap forward next year. He has the highest ceiling of anybody on this year's roster and it really isn't close. He is the kind of explosive athlete that can go up and get a rebound and then be a one man fast break. He is really good defending on the ball and his help was much, much better over the last few weeks.
Here is how I see the roster (not necessarily the position they will play) over the next few months:
1's:
Shaun Neal Williams
2's
Mike McGuirl
3's
Cartier Diarra
Dajuan Gordon
Goodnews Kpegol
4's
Makol Mawien
Austin Trice
Montavious Murphy
Antonio Gordon
5's
Nigel Shadd
Levi Stockard
To me, that roster really needs two more guards. There is simply no reason not to add Asanti Price at this point. There is not a player on the roster with his ability to shoot the ball. When you combine that with his length and athleticism (which is waaayyyy better in person than I saw on film) makes him a no-brainer.
One thing is certain, the roster composition is going to be really interesting to watch over the next three months and we are going to spend a ton of time agonizing over transfers and spring recruits even though there are no apparent openings (just as we did last spring).
