Guthrie is having an almost impossible statistical year... in some ways, it is to be respected and admired... because we haven't seen anything like this since Hoch and Kyle davies were holding down the fort... frankly, we may never have seen anything like this
amazingly, Guthries advanced stats are better than his 5.82 ERA... why is that amazing? because it's the complete opposite of what should happen with the royals defense behind him with a pitcher who can only pitch to contact like guthrie... the whole point of the royals pitching staff is to take a pitcher who can't produce strikeouts (thereby making his advanced stats look worse) and keep his ERA lower by turning more "hits" into outs... usually, royals pitchers have much higher FIP and xFIP than their traditional ERAs, mainly because of the defense behind them. For example
ERA, FIP, xFIP
Young - 2.56, 3.62, 4.84
Vargas - 4.1, 4.3, 4.6
volquez - 3.2, 3.5, 4.1
Frasor - .52, 4.6, 5.1
(both ventura and duffy are in the same boat as guthrie.. but duffy has been crushed by a high BAPIP and walk rate, while ventura is just special)
Further... Guthrie has only an average BAPIP against, meaning the defense is working ok of for him.. but here is why he will cost the team a playoff spot... He averages 3.7 k/9 to 2.8 BB/9... for perspective, the league average for k/9 is around 7.5.. Guthrie has survived for quite a while with a low k rate, which is doable, but the walks are unacceptable. If you can't make them miss, you can't miss in general.
I like the royals approach to rock a bunch of 2s and 3s instead of paying for an ace and letting the d raise the level of each pitcher.. but without paying for an ace, you can't carry burdens.... you can't have one of the worst pitchers in the majors having a incredibly bad year who's not really eating innings
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in a surprise to no one, the royals are currently 4th in the majors from their fielders in WAR (off and def)... however, even with their recent swoon, they still rank 5th overall in hitting war and 2nd in d to the cards (twith a larger sample size, royals should clear first in d soon enough)
also of note... only 5 players are "positive" offensively... in order, Hosmer, Morales, Moose, Alex, and Cain... who should be hitting in the first 5 spots every day
amazingly, Guthries advanced stats are better than his 5.82 ERA... why is that amazing? because it's the complete opposite of what should happen with the royals defense behind him with a pitcher who can only pitch to contact like guthrie... the whole point of the royals pitching staff is to take a pitcher who can't produce strikeouts (thereby making his advanced stats look worse) and keep his ERA lower by turning more "hits" into outs... usually, royals pitchers have much higher FIP and xFIP than their traditional ERAs, mainly because of the defense behind them. For example
ERA, FIP, xFIP
Young - 2.56, 3.62, 4.84
Vargas - 4.1, 4.3, 4.6
volquez - 3.2, 3.5, 4.1
Frasor - .52, 4.6, 5.1
(both ventura and duffy are in the same boat as guthrie.. but duffy has been crushed by a high BAPIP and walk rate, while ventura is just special)
Further... Guthrie has only an average BAPIP against, meaning the defense is working ok of for him.. but here is why he will cost the team a playoff spot... He averages 3.7 k/9 to 2.8 BB/9... for perspective, the league average for k/9 is around 7.5.. Guthrie has survived for quite a while with a low k rate, which is doable, but the walks are unacceptable. If you can't make them miss, you can't miss in general.
I like the royals approach to rock a bunch of 2s and 3s instead of paying for an ace and letting the d raise the level of each pitcher.. but without paying for an ace, you can't carry burdens.... you can't have one of the worst pitchers in the majors having a incredibly bad year who's not really eating innings
-----
in a surprise to no one, the royals are currently 4th in the majors from their fielders in WAR (off and def)... however, even with their recent swoon, they still rank 5th overall in hitting war and 2nd in d to the cards (twith a larger sample size, royals should clear first in d soon enough)
also of note... only 5 players are "positive" offensively... in order, Hosmer, Morales, Moose, Alex, and Cain... who should be hitting in the first 5 spots every day
