K-State suffered a third straight loss in a disappointing game against Iowa State last Saturday. The defense had bigger struggles and allowed over 3.6 points per drive, but the offense wasn't spectacular, managing only 2.2 points per drive for the game. The 1st half was particularly frustrating as K-State only came away with 7 points after starting the game with a 3 and out, throwing an interception, had a drive stall and end with a missed field goal, and then finished the half with a 4 and out. Too many key mistakes early in the drive and particularly from Skylar Thompson which will show in this week's GIFs.
The offensive numbers ended up pretty good, especially against a defense like Iowa State's, but part of that was fueled by a pair of late scores against a softer Iowa State defense while playing catch up, plus a drive inside the ISU 20 yard line that ended with no points. Still, it was never a true blow out in the 4th quarter and therefore true garbage time by most of the metrics, though I did throw out the numbers from the final drive when the Cats drove inside the ISU 30 through the air down 13 points. K-State did run some different schemes against ISU's odd front, focusing more on what looked like true zone blocking schemes and not duo, plus featuring more snaps with a power look by pulling 1 or 2 offensive linemen, especially to the outside. Thompson did run the ball 3 times in the QB run game, but a pair were speed option keeps that looked like they were checks by Thompson, then a short TD run on a QB read. It was clear he didn't have much burst/speed on any of his runs. The run game was much more featured on the day with a 60% run rate before the final drive which was all throws. Note that the 2nd quarter was the toughest for the K-State offense, but they battled not having the ball much against an ISU team that also likes to control the clock.
Both backs ended with solid yards per carry games and Vaughn approached 100 yards, but Ervin had the much higher success rate per down and distance on his carries. Of the total rushing attempts, Ervin was more used than any game this season, getting 28% of the run calls. Vaughn got it on 62% of the carries and against OU last week the split was 58% Vaughn and 27% Ervin. Ervin's role has steadily increased this year, except for the OSU game when he only carried the ball one time. For the season Vaughn is getting 52% of the carries and Ervin 19%.
Here are the season numbers for plays and success rate, plus points per drive and drive rate stats for drives that end in a particular quarter. As expected, the 3rd quarter has the roughest numbers while the 4th quarter is the best, again part of that is playing from behind against defenses that aren't taking many chances. The 1st quarter numbers are good to see and reinforce the reputation that Messingham is getting as a good schemer against the defenses they face every wake based on film, but struggling with adjustments and consistency in the 2nd and 3rd quarters. Finally, note that K-State dosnt' have a singel turnover in the 2nd half, but is turning it over nearly 1/3 of the drives in the first half. You simply can't turn it over that much and give yourself a chance, especially when you are facing 3 top 25 teams to start league play. The numbers drop quite a bit in Big 12 play only (right end of the chart), especially in the 1st and 2nd quarters. Again, simply too many turnovers in the first half and the 2nd quarter has not been kind to the Cats.
I usually don't do a lot with the defense here, but here are the drive rate stats by quarter for the defense this year and in Big 12 play only. The first half has been brutal for the K-State defense as opponents score nearly 80% (!!!!) of their drives with a touchdown rate over 40%. That's not sustainable in this league, especially facing Top 7 Top 50 offenses and 5 that rank in the top 25.
That gives plenty of numbers to look at and dissect for now, I'll plan to post 20+ GIFs later this evening when I have some more time.
The offensive numbers ended up pretty good, especially against a defense like Iowa State's, but part of that was fueled by a pair of late scores against a softer Iowa State defense while playing catch up, plus a drive inside the ISU 20 yard line that ended with no points. Still, it was never a true blow out in the 4th quarter and therefore true garbage time by most of the metrics, though I did throw out the numbers from the final drive when the Cats drove inside the ISU 30 through the air down 13 points. K-State did run some different schemes against ISU's odd front, focusing more on what looked like true zone blocking schemes and not duo, plus featuring more snaps with a power look by pulling 1 or 2 offensive linemen, especially to the outside. Thompson did run the ball 3 times in the QB run game, but a pair were speed option keeps that looked like they were checks by Thompson, then a short TD run on a QB read. It was clear he didn't have much burst/speed on any of his runs. The run game was much more featured on the day with a 60% run rate before the final drive which was all throws. Note that the 2nd quarter was the toughest for the K-State offense, but they battled not having the ball much against an ISU team that also likes to control the clock.
Both backs ended with solid yards per carry games and Vaughn approached 100 yards, but Ervin had the much higher success rate per down and distance on his carries. Of the total rushing attempts, Ervin was more used than any game this season, getting 28% of the run calls. Vaughn got it on 62% of the carries and against OU last week the split was 58% Vaughn and 27% Ervin. Ervin's role has steadily increased this year, except for the OSU game when he only carried the ball one time. For the season Vaughn is getting 52% of the carries and Ervin 19%.
Here are the season numbers for plays and success rate, plus points per drive and drive rate stats for drives that end in a particular quarter. As expected, the 3rd quarter has the roughest numbers while the 4th quarter is the best, again part of that is playing from behind against defenses that aren't taking many chances. The 1st quarter numbers are good to see and reinforce the reputation that Messingham is getting as a good schemer against the defenses they face every wake based on film, but struggling with adjustments and consistency in the 2nd and 3rd quarters. Finally, note that K-State dosnt' have a singel turnover in the 2nd half, but is turning it over nearly 1/3 of the drives in the first half. You simply can't turn it over that much and give yourself a chance, especially when you are facing 3 top 25 teams to start league play. The numbers drop quite a bit in Big 12 play only (right end of the chart), especially in the 1st and 2nd quarters. Again, simply too many turnovers in the first half and the 2nd quarter has not been kind to the Cats.
I usually don't do a lot with the defense here, but here are the drive rate stats by quarter for the defense this year and in Big 12 play only. The first half has been brutal for the K-State defense as opponents score nearly 80% (!!!!) of their drives with a touchdown rate over 40%. That's not sustainable in this league, especially facing Top 7 Top 50 offenses and 5 that rank in the top 25.
That gives plenty of numbers to look at and dissect for now, I'll plan to post 20+ GIFs later this evening when I have some more time.
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