I can’t imagine that the Big 12 has thought the new tiebreaker procedure through. I have seen comments that they do have some concern that using point differential could lead to running up the score. That tells me they have not thought it through because in the most likely situation running up the score DOES NOT HELP a team. The most likely situation being three teams each winning one game in their three team round robin and all finishing 8-1. It is somewhat counter-intuitive, but using the new tiebreaking procedure in that situation running up the score HURTS a team.
Running up the score does not help a team because point differential is not being used to determine a winner. Rather, point differential is being used in a negative sense -- to eliminate one the three teams. The tiebreaker then reverts to head to head. That means that if a team runs up the score they are increasing the likelihood that the team they beat in a 3-way tie will be the one eliminated and the winner will then be determined by the head to head result between them and the team that beat them. At that point it doesn’t matter how big the team’s differential is because it is not used in the head to head result. Effectively by running up the score a team is leading itself to slaughter.
Using point differential in this way can easily result in a situation where a team cost itself the tie-breaker because it won a game by too large a margin. If that game is a stand-alone game at the end of the season it will result in a situation where that team enters the game knowing it must win, but it must not win by too many points. My guess is this would be discovered by the media in the week leading up to the game and well-publicized.
Imagine that next season West Virginia beats TCU 31-27, TCU beats K-State 21-19 and all three teams win the remainder of their games. On December 5 TCU’s season is complete at 8-1 and K-State is playing West Virginia. If West Virginia wins they are 9-0 obviously winning the Big 12 outright. If K-State wins the three teams will be tied at 8-1 and the point differential tiebreaker will go into effect. In games among the three teams TCU is finished with a point differential of -2. WVU is +4 and K-State is -2 going into the game.
If K-State beats WVU by any amount up to 5 points, K-State’s point differential in games among the three teams will range from -1 (if they win by 1) to +4 (if they win by 5). WVU’s point differential will range from +3 (if they lose by 1) to -1 (if they lose by 5). That leaves TCU with the lowest point differential at -2. Thus TCU is eliminated and the tie-breaker shifts to head to head between the two teams remaining, making K-State the conference champion by virtue of its win over WVU.
If K-State beats WVU by 6: K-State is +4; WVU is -2; TCU is -2. In this case K-State presumably wins the tiebreaker by virtue of point differential although in the version of the rule I have seen that is not specifically written. It only says that the team with the lowest differential point total is eliminated. So technically K-State would win not because it has the highest point total, but because both WVU and TCU have the lowest.
But now if K-State beats WVU by 7: K-State is +5; WVU is -3; TCU is -2. WVU is eliminated and the tiebreaker shifts to head to head between K-State and TCU. TCU is the champion.
Net result: K-State can only win the conference if they win the game by 6 or fewer points. If they beat WVU by more than 6 points they will eliminate WVU from the tiebreaker and assure TCU of winning the conference based on head to head win over K-State. Effectively K-State can eliminate itself by scoring more points in a game that is still in doubt. What if the score is tied and K-State scores a TD with about 2 minutes remaining. Should they kick the extra point and hand possibly the conference championship to TCU or intentionally miss the extra point and possibly lose the game if WVU scores in the last two minutes? The Big 12 can’t possibly want to put a team in that situation.
I personally think using point differential makes sense, but if you use it you must use it to determine the winner – not to eliminate a team – even though that would encourage running up the score. Running up the score is better than putting a team in a situation where scoring more points in game that is still undecided might cost them the conference championship.
Running up the score does not help a team because point differential is not being used to determine a winner. Rather, point differential is being used in a negative sense -- to eliminate one the three teams. The tiebreaker then reverts to head to head. That means that if a team runs up the score they are increasing the likelihood that the team they beat in a 3-way tie will be the one eliminated and the winner will then be determined by the head to head result between them and the team that beat them. At that point it doesn’t matter how big the team’s differential is because it is not used in the head to head result. Effectively by running up the score a team is leading itself to slaughter.
Using point differential in this way can easily result in a situation where a team cost itself the tie-breaker because it won a game by too large a margin. If that game is a stand-alone game at the end of the season it will result in a situation where that team enters the game knowing it must win, but it must not win by too many points. My guess is this would be discovered by the media in the week leading up to the game and well-publicized.
Imagine that next season West Virginia beats TCU 31-27, TCU beats K-State 21-19 and all three teams win the remainder of their games. On December 5 TCU’s season is complete at 8-1 and K-State is playing West Virginia. If West Virginia wins they are 9-0 obviously winning the Big 12 outright. If K-State wins the three teams will be tied at 8-1 and the point differential tiebreaker will go into effect. In games among the three teams TCU is finished with a point differential of -2. WVU is +4 and K-State is -2 going into the game.
If K-State beats WVU by any amount up to 5 points, K-State’s point differential in games among the three teams will range from -1 (if they win by 1) to +4 (if they win by 5). WVU’s point differential will range from +3 (if they lose by 1) to -1 (if they lose by 5). That leaves TCU with the lowest point differential at -2. Thus TCU is eliminated and the tie-breaker shifts to head to head between the two teams remaining, making K-State the conference champion by virtue of its win over WVU.
If K-State beats WVU by 6: K-State is +4; WVU is -2; TCU is -2. In this case K-State presumably wins the tiebreaker by virtue of point differential although in the version of the rule I have seen that is not specifically written. It only says that the team with the lowest differential point total is eliminated. So technically K-State would win not because it has the highest point total, but because both WVU and TCU have the lowest.
But now if K-State beats WVU by 7: K-State is +5; WVU is -3; TCU is -2. WVU is eliminated and the tiebreaker shifts to head to head between K-State and TCU. TCU is the champion.
Net result: K-State can only win the conference if they win the game by 6 or fewer points. If they beat WVU by more than 6 points they will eliminate WVU from the tiebreaker and assure TCU of winning the conference based on head to head win over K-State. Effectively K-State can eliminate itself by scoring more points in a game that is still in doubt. What if the score is tied and K-State scores a TD with about 2 minutes remaining. Should they kick the extra point and hand possibly the conference championship to TCU or intentionally miss the extra point and possibly lose the game if WVU scores in the last two minutes? The Big 12 can’t possibly want to put a team in that situation.
I personally think using point differential makes sense, but if you use it you must use it to determine the winner – not to eliminate a team – even though that would encourage running up the score. Running up the score is better than putting a team in a situation where scoring more points in game that is still undecided might cost them the conference championship.
