In order to have a shot at making the NIT we MUST win two more games. If we somehow win three we would be a LOCK, but two will likely still get us in at 17-16 thanks to our strong conference.
Big Apple Buckets is currently projecting us as the last 4-seed.
Bracket Matrix currently has us as a 2 seed.
Dratings currently has us in as a 7 seed.
Looking back at the past brackets it is worth noting that 10-13 spots in the tournament are typically taken up by automatic qualifiers. These are teams that win their conference in the regular season but lose out in the conference tournament. These leaves somewhere between 19 and 22 spots open for at-large selections.
When you are projecting the NIT you must start with the NCAA bubble. I am going to assume that the first 8 spots in the NIT are filled by teams currently on Joe Lunardi's bubble (Last 4 byes, Last 4 in, First 4 out, and next 4 out).
So you take out 8 at larges from this pool and that leaves 11-14 spots remaining. It is damn hard to predict who they are going to take as there does not seem to be any kind of set criteria. For example last season RPI #102 Arizona State (17-15) got into the field but RPI #83 Memphis (18-14) and RPI #98 Minnesota (17-15) got left at home. The year before that Maryland was left at home with an RPI of 78 and a record of 16-15 despite having a better RPI than four other at large selections. In 2012 Iowa got in with an RPI of 130 and a record of 17-16 when there were many other teams with better RPIs and records. The NIT selection process can be a bit unpredictable and illogical.
I have 18 teams with profiles that would seem likely to get NIT at-large consideration. The following projections (RPI and record) are from RPI Forecast:
60) Hofstra, Colonial, 21-8
62) Davidson, A10, 17-11
67) William & Mary, Colonial, 17-10
72) Georgia Tech, ACC, 17-14
76) Florida State, ACC, 17-13
77) Ohio State, B1G, 18-13
79) Kansas State, B12, 16-15
81) Evansville, MVC, 23-7
82) Ohio, MAC, 19-10
85) Creighton, BE, 19-12
86) Georgia, SEC, 16-13
87) Houston, American, 21-9
89) Hawaii, BW, 22-5
90) Boise St, MWC, 18-11
92) Ole Miss, SEC, 19-12
102) LSU, SEC, 17-14 (one of the best players in the nation)
109) Marquette, BE, 19-12
112) Clemson, ACC, 17-13
Only 11-14 of those teams are going to make it. I would like to think that we would make the cut (7th best RPI) but only being one game over .500 has me concerned.
Big Apple Buckets is currently projecting us as the last 4-seed.
Bracket Matrix currently has us as a 2 seed.
Dratings currently has us in as a 7 seed.
Looking back at the past brackets it is worth noting that 10-13 spots in the tournament are typically taken up by automatic qualifiers. These are teams that win their conference in the regular season but lose out in the conference tournament. These leaves somewhere between 19 and 22 spots open for at-large selections.
When you are projecting the NIT you must start with the NCAA bubble. I am going to assume that the first 8 spots in the NIT are filled by teams currently on Joe Lunardi's bubble (Last 4 byes, Last 4 in, First 4 out, and next 4 out).
So you take out 8 at larges from this pool and that leaves 11-14 spots remaining. It is damn hard to predict who they are going to take as there does not seem to be any kind of set criteria. For example last season RPI #102 Arizona State (17-15) got into the field but RPI #83 Memphis (18-14) and RPI #98 Minnesota (17-15) got left at home. The year before that Maryland was left at home with an RPI of 78 and a record of 16-15 despite having a better RPI than four other at large selections. In 2012 Iowa got in with an RPI of 130 and a record of 17-16 when there were many other teams with better RPIs and records. The NIT selection process can be a bit unpredictable and illogical.
I have 18 teams with profiles that would seem likely to get NIT at-large consideration. The following projections (RPI and record) are from RPI Forecast:
60) Hofstra, Colonial, 21-8
62) Davidson, A10, 17-11
67) William & Mary, Colonial, 17-10
72) Georgia Tech, ACC, 17-14
76) Florida State, ACC, 17-13
77) Ohio State, B1G, 18-13
79) Kansas State, B12, 16-15
81) Evansville, MVC, 23-7
82) Ohio, MAC, 19-10
85) Creighton, BE, 19-12
86) Georgia, SEC, 16-13
87) Houston, American, 21-9
89) Hawaii, BW, 22-5
90) Boise St, MWC, 18-11
92) Ole Miss, SEC, 19-12
102) LSU, SEC, 17-14 (one of the best players in the nation)
109) Marquette, BE, 19-12
112) Clemson, ACC, 17-13
Only 11-14 of those teams are going to make it. I would like to think that we would make the cut (7th best RPI) but only being one game over .500 has me concerned.
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