Kansas State Under 7 Wins
Things in Manhattan could get ugly in a year many expect coach Bill Snyder to appear in another bowl. The Wildcats lose a plethora of talent on defense, especially along the front seven. They’ll need to replace three key senior starters in linebackers Jayd Kirby and Trent Tanking and defensive tackle Will Geary. That trio accounted for 37 run stuffs last season; only one other player had more than five.
However, you could put some positive spin on losing that defensive experience, considering Kansas State ranked outside of the top 100 in a number of critical defensive categories, including:
Adjusted Sack Rate (sack rate modified for competition).
Standard Downs Success Rate (efficiency measure for a team on first or second down with 7 or fewer yards to go and third or fourth down with 4 or fewer yards to go).
Passing Downs IsoPPP (per-play value of a team’s successful plays).
Translation: A stiff wind would’ve sliced through the KSU defense.
Kansas State returns a number of weapons at wide receiver in Isaiah Zuber, Dalton Schoen and spring game MVP Chabastin Taylor. Running back Alex Barnes (pictured above) will also return to provide stability in the backfield. Quarterback is still a major question mark, though, as KSU lacked playmakers at that position in 2017. The competition has been so lukewarm that Snyder flipped a coin at the spring game to determine the teams for quarterbacks Alex Delton and Skylar Thompson.
A deep look inside the metrics shows that Kansas State may have overachieved in 2017, posting a 2nd Order Wins total of -1.9 — ranking in the bottom five nationally. That metric essentially tries to quantify the actual number of games a team should have won. The Wildcats also posted a +10 turnover margin in 2017, which drove some of their fortune. I wouldn’t count on the Wildcats getting some of the same bounces they benefited from last season.
I made their win total 5.3 — giving value on the under even at a win total of 6. I’ll gladly take the extra cushion at 7. The schedule is unkind, as the Wildcats draw five conference road games in 2018. Of those five, they should be favored in only one: at Waco against a Baylor team that I think could surprise. It’s certainly not a gimme.
You can also expect to see Kansas State listed as a significant underdog (touchdown or greater) in five games: Oklahoma, TCU, Oklahoma State, Iowa State and Mississippi State. If you assume the Wildcats lose those, that puts their maximum possible wins at 7. Once you account for coin flips at home against Texas and Texas Tech, this opening win total looks too high. I think this under cashes well before Thanksgiving.
Stats via Football Outsiders
Photo via Casey Sapio-USA TODAY Sports
Things in Manhattan could get ugly in a year many expect coach Bill Snyder to appear in another bowl. The Wildcats lose a plethora of talent on defense, especially along the front seven. They’ll need to replace three key senior starters in linebackers Jayd Kirby and Trent Tanking and defensive tackle Will Geary. That trio accounted for 37 run stuffs last season; only one other player had more than five.
However, you could put some positive spin on losing that defensive experience, considering Kansas State ranked outside of the top 100 in a number of critical defensive categories, including:
Adjusted Sack Rate (sack rate modified for competition).
Standard Downs Success Rate (efficiency measure for a team on first or second down with 7 or fewer yards to go and third or fourth down with 4 or fewer yards to go).
Passing Downs IsoPPP (per-play value of a team’s successful plays).
Translation: A stiff wind would’ve sliced through the KSU defense.
Kansas State returns a number of weapons at wide receiver in Isaiah Zuber, Dalton Schoen and spring game MVP Chabastin Taylor. Running back Alex Barnes (pictured above) will also return to provide stability in the backfield. Quarterback is still a major question mark, though, as KSU lacked playmakers at that position in 2017. The competition has been so lukewarm that Snyder flipped a coin at the spring game to determine the teams for quarterbacks Alex Delton and Skylar Thompson.
A deep look inside the metrics shows that Kansas State may have overachieved in 2017, posting a 2nd Order Wins total of -1.9 — ranking in the bottom five nationally. That metric essentially tries to quantify the actual number of games a team should have won. The Wildcats also posted a +10 turnover margin in 2017, which drove some of their fortune. I wouldn’t count on the Wildcats getting some of the same bounces they benefited from last season.
I made their win total 5.3 — giving value on the under even at a win total of 6. I’ll gladly take the extra cushion at 7. The schedule is unkind, as the Wildcats draw five conference road games in 2018. Of those five, they should be favored in only one: at Waco against a Baylor team that I think could surprise. It’s certainly not a gimme.
You can also expect to see Kansas State listed as a significant underdog (touchdown or greater) in five games: Oklahoma, TCU, Oklahoma State, Iowa State and Mississippi State. If you assume the Wildcats lose those, that puts their maximum possible wins at 7. Once you account for coin flips at home against Texas and Texas Tech, this opening win total looks too high. I think this under cashes well before Thanksgiving.
Stats via Football Outsiders
Photo via Casey Sapio-USA TODAY Sports
