As I watch this latest realignment action I can’t help but look 5-10 years down the road and project the ultimate outcome for college football. There’s no debate concerning the root cause of this movement. ESPN and whichever other network interests may be involved are intent on sifting the wheat from the chaff in order to create an elite division made up exclusively of the top programs. Many pundits assume this will include upwards of 32 schools . I disagree completely. From an economic perspective, there aren’t that many programs which move the needle in ratings. I believe the final package will include no more than 24 programs and could be as few as 16.
These TV executives aren’t interested in paying for any more product than they feel will return value for their investment. And the self-centered blue bloods don’t want to share the money with any more schools than absolutely necessary. In other words, this OU/UT move is merely the opening salvo in a much bigger action plan. All the middle of the road programs in the SEC, BIG10, ACC, and PAC12 will find themselves in our shoes within a few years, as the blue bloods all leave to form their own super conference. In time, they’ll all have their own Bonhoeffer moment, when they’ll rue the day they stood by and made light of our misery.
If I were the AD of any of these schools, I’d be reaching out to every AD in each P5 conference which will eventually find itself left off the guest list for the debutante ball and begin planning our own coup.
Rather than wait to be jettisoned from relevance, we should all band together and form our own division made up of the majority of existing P5 schools, along with the G5 schools. We’d leave the blue bloods to themselves immediately and let them have their coast-to-coast super conference and their own championship. We’d create our own national championship in our division, and let’s be honest, that championship will be 100 times more competitive and exciting than watching Bama and Clemson play for the umpteenth time. Now schools like ours will have a legitimate opportunity to compete for a national title. I’m sure fans from Raleigh to Pullman would jump at such an opportunity.
We could create a playoff format similar to what the FCS uses, and I’d bet everything I own that this playoff will generate massive TV revenue for us to distribute.
It’s going to become reality regardless of whether we act now or not. So why not be bold and decisive now, controlling our destiny rather than waiting and hoping for the best?
And here’s the issue that none of the pundits have addressed. Once this super conference is formed, all these elite programs are going to experience massive cost increases in their non-revenue sports. Rather than bus their gymnastics team from Tuscaloosa to Starkville, they’ll now have to fly them to Columbus or Pasadena. This will result in a serious dilution of the increased TV revenue the super conference will receive. The logical solution for them will be to seek local/regional scheduling for the olympic sports with schools in our division in order to curb their costs. And that’s when we must tell them to go pound sand. There will be so many schools in our new division for us to schedule, we won’t need them. Instead, we’ll be able to operate at a much lower cost due to our regional affiliations while they’ll end up closing down sports programs in order to maintain profitability.
When the media begins to lament the shuttering of water polo and wrestling teams, we’ll simply remind them that it was their own avarice which caused this inevitable outcome.
Also, I’m not convinced a super conference will generate the massive viewership and thereby sustainable revenues they expect. When you put 16-24 alpha dogs in a cage, the biggest will kill the smallest. If the Longhorns thought they had a tough time competing for conference titles in the Big XII, how will their viewership react when they finish in the lower half of this new super conference each season? Will 10 million Texas TVs tune in to watch yet another Longhorn castration? Or will they lose interest and become an ambivalent fan base like USC? The only way this super conference could avoid having teams go 2-10 would be to schedule nonconference games with schools in our division. Once again, this is when we all tell them to … well you know what we need to tell them. Besides, none of us will need a payday game against any of the elites, as there are plenty of strong programs around the country with whom we can schedule for our nonconference games which will draw solid TV ratings and generate healthy revenues.
And let’s not underestimate the American appetite for good competition. Aside from watching the Wildcats each week, I’d prefer to watch a competitive G5 game rather than watch a P5 beat down. When we were great in the 90s, we drew plenty of viewers to our games. Will we receive the same revenue as we’ve enjoyed over the past decade? Probably not. But as our program rebounds, and I truly believe it will, we’ll compete for conference titles and eventually a playoff slot.
Finally, I don’t believe this new structure will hurt our recruiting either. There are only so many scholarships available at the top programs. There’ll be plenty of talent signing in this new division, after all, it’ll be much as it is now, except we’ll have kicked the Prima Donna’s to the curb. I mean, how many kids sign with those schools now? Aside from a few local kids over the years, we’ve never been in the discussion for kids who were being recruited by Bama or Clemson.
What we need is stability and that can only occur when all the ADs around the country wake up and accept the reality staring them in the face.
Do I have faith that the administrations of all these schools will have the foresight to see the future and realize that it’s in their best interests to make this move now? Sadly, no, I don’t. But I’m convinced it’s the only way to save college football as we know it for the majority of the P5 schools.
These TV executives aren’t interested in paying for any more product than they feel will return value for their investment. And the self-centered blue bloods don’t want to share the money with any more schools than absolutely necessary. In other words, this OU/UT move is merely the opening salvo in a much bigger action plan. All the middle of the road programs in the SEC, BIG10, ACC, and PAC12 will find themselves in our shoes within a few years, as the blue bloods all leave to form their own super conference. In time, they’ll all have their own Bonhoeffer moment, when they’ll rue the day they stood by and made light of our misery.
If I were the AD of any of these schools, I’d be reaching out to every AD in each P5 conference which will eventually find itself left off the guest list for the debutante ball and begin planning our own coup.
Rather than wait to be jettisoned from relevance, we should all band together and form our own division made up of the majority of existing P5 schools, along with the G5 schools. We’d leave the blue bloods to themselves immediately and let them have their coast-to-coast super conference and their own championship. We’d create our own national championship in our division, and let’s be honest, that championship will be 100 times more competitive and exciting than watching Bama and Clemson play for the umpteenth time. Now schools like ours will have a legitimate opportunity to compete for a national title. I’m sure fans from Raleigh to Pullman would jump at such an opportunity.
We could create a playoff format similar to what the FCS uses, and I’d bet everything I own that this playoff will generate massive TV revenue for us to distribute.
It’s going to become reality regardless of whether we act now or not. So why not be bold and decisive now, controlling our destiny rather than waiting and hoping for the best?
And here’s the issue that none of the pundits have addressed. Once this super conference is formed, all these elite programs are going to experience massive cost increases in their non-revenue sports. Rather than bus their gymnastics team from Tuscaloosa to Starkville, they’ll now have to fly them to Columbus or Pasadena. This will result in a serious dilution of the increased TV revenue the super conference will receive. The logical solution for them will be to seek local/regional scheduling for the olympic sports with schools in our division in order to curb their costs. And that’s when we must tell them to go pound sand. There will be so many schools in our new division for us to schedule, we won’t need them. Instead, we’ll be able to operate at a much lower cost due to our regional affiliations while they’ll end up closing down sports programs in order to maintain profitability.
When the media begins to lament the shuttering of water polo and wrestling teams, we’ll simply remind them that it was their own avarice which caused this inevitable outcome.
Also, I’m not convinced a super conference will generate the massive viewership and thereby sustainable revenues they expect. When you put 16-24 alpha dogs in a cage, the biggest will kill the smallest. If the Longhorns thought they had a tough time competing for conference titles in the Big XII, how will their viewership react when they finish in the lower half of this new super conference each season? Will 10 million Texas TVs tune in to watch yet another Longhorn castration? Or will they lose interest and become an ambivalent fan base like USC? The only way this super conference could avoid having teams go 2-10 would be to schedule nonconference games with schools in our division. Once again, this is when we all tell them to … well you know what we need to tell them. Besides, none of us will need a payday game against any of the elites, as there are plenty of strong programs around the country with whom we can schedule for our nonconference games which will draw solid TV ratings and generate healthy revenues.
And let’s not underestimate the American appetite for good competition. Aside from watching the Wildcats each week, I’d prefer to watch a competitive G5 game rather than watch a P5 beat down. When we were great in the 90s, we drew plenty of viewers to our games. Will we receive the same revenue as we’ve enjoyed over the past decade? Probably not. But as our program rebounds, and I truly believe it will, we’ll compete for conference titles and eventually a playoff slot.
Finally, I don’t believe this new structure will hurt our recruiting either. There are only so many scholarships available at the top programs. There’ll be plenty of talent signing in this new division, after all, it’ll be much as it is now, except we’ll have kicked the Prima Donna’s to the curb. I mean, how many kids sign with those schools now? Aside from a few local kids over the years, we’ve never been in the discussion for kids who were being recruited by Bama or Clemson.
What we need is stability and that can only occur when all the ADs around the country wake up and accept the reality staring them in the face.
Do I have faith that the administrations of all these schools will have the foresight to see the future and realize that it’s in their best interests to make this move now? Sadly, no, I don’t. But I’m convinced it’s the only way to save college football as we know it for the majority of the P5 schools.
