The only issue he's having is that he's not winning enough for some of the fan base. It's that simple. Nothing more, nothing less. It's a results-oriented business. His age is not the issue. If we'd gone 10-3 or 11-2 this season, and were having that kind of success most seasons, people would be talking about how they hope he can coach forever instead of talking about him retiring. People would still mention his age, but that goes with the territory when you're as old as he is.
The company I work for has a Gaming line of business and one of my co-workers goes to Vegas once or twice a month. Before the season, I'd seen multiple casinos offering a regular season win total over/under of 7.5. He was out there in August and I asked him to try to find that number, and if he could, I was fully prepared to put $2,000 on the over, which is a significant bet for me. He went to three casinos and they all had it at 8, which I passed on. I got lucky. Obviously, odds should be taken with a grain of salt, but the odds-makers did not gauge bettor perception to be that we were a 10+ win team like a lot (most?) of the folks on this board.
Preseason, I did think we were the clear-cut 3rd place pick for the league behind OU and OSU, so I'm a little disappointed with the season, but it wasn't a huge flop. Looking reasonably at our talent level with 20/20 hindsight, I feel we came up two games short. The Vanderbilt loss was unacceptable, and the WVU loss was a give-away. If we'd gone 10-3, 6-3, I'd have considered it a well-coached season. We lost a couple of other close ones, but we also won a couple close ones.
I do concede that the season raised more questions than some of our other seasons, even ones where we had similar or worse records. There were 3-4 times this season where I felt our performance fell way outside of the bell curve. What I mean by that is games where our performance was so far removed from reasonable expectations that it made me wonder what's going on. I'll use a WIN as an example: the KU game. I think if someone asked me prior to that game "what's the maximum amount of yardage you could see KU getting against us?", I'd have said 400. My prediction would have been 250-300, but since I'm a wiley ol' football watcher who has "seen it all", I would have said 400 because the question was "what's the MOST", not "what's your prediction?" Yet they had 482 yards with 418 of them coming via the pass. That is completely ridiculous. I don't care, ultimately, because the only stat that matters is the score, but it raises questions about consistency and the fundamental mindset/culture of the program.
I'm a Snyder guy because he's one of the best college football coaches of all time. Additionally (I'm not going to lie), there's an emotional component for me because I was the recipient of one of his letters at a time when it meant the world to me. But I also consider myself to be a relentlessly logical, math-oriented results guy, and that part of me thinks the incessant criticism of Snyder is irrational, as is the apparent desire by many to push him out the door. I am not as convinced as many here that hiring a new head coach is sure to lead to results better than what we've seen during Snyder 2.0.
I'm going to make the only comparison that exists, which is Joe Paterno. Let's look at age 75-79 for JoePa (2002 was his 37th year at PSU):
Age Year Conference Overall
75 2002 5-3 9-4
76 2003 1-7 3-9
77 2004 2-6 4-7
78 2005 7-1 11-1
79 2006 5-3 9-4
I'm not showing years 2000 and 2001, but they were about as ugly as 2003-4. That's what true down years looks like, folks, not 8-5, 5-4. Many were calling for his head in 2003 and 2004 and rightfully so. When you're going 3-9 and 4-7 people should be calling for your head. People were also wanting him to make a lot of changes to his staff (a common topic here, definitely). He finally did that and got to the Rose Bowl in 2005. Here's his next five seasons (he was forced out in 2011 mid-season due to the Sandusky scandal):
Age Year Conference Overall
80 2007 4-4 9-4
81 2008 7-1 11-2
82 2009 6-2 11-2
83 2010 4-4 7-6
84 2011 5-0 8-1
Let's look at Snyder 2.0:
Age Year Conference Overall
70 2009 4-4 6-6
71 2010 3-5 7-6
72 2011 7-2 10-3
73 2012 8-1 11-2
74 2013 5-4 8-5
75 2014 7-2 9-4
76 2015 3-6 6-7
77 2016 6-3 9-4
78 2017 5-4 8-5
Remember, Snyder came back after Prince, so 2009-2010 were rebuilding to some extent, unlike 2002-3 for JoePa. Regardless, Snyder is 48-31 in conference play (60.8% wins) during his 9-year 2.0 stint, and 74-42 overall (63.8%). JoePa was 41-31 in conference play (56.9%) in the 2002-2010 9-year window and 74-39 overall (65.5%).
Even in the last 5 seasons of Snyder 2.0, which included one nightmare season (2015) and has been a bit of a downer coming off of 2011 and 2012, his average conference record is 5.2 wins and 3.8 losses.
How much improvement, if any, do people think we'd experience if we hired Brent Venables or Jim Leavitt?
I do think if Snyder is planning to coach indefinitely or could see himself coaching another 4-5 seasons, he should change his messaging. When asked, he should simply say "as long as I'm healthy, contributing, excited, and the university wants me, I'll continue to coach" (which he HAS said multiple times, actually). I understand he has a process each year and that's fine, but he should express the fact that his default position going into the annual off-season process is that he plans to continue coaching, not say "I don't know yet" every year.
The company I work for has a Gaming line of business and one of my co-workers goes to Vegas once or twice a month. Before the season, I'd seen multiple casinos offering a regular season win total over/under of 7.5. He was out there in August and I asked him to try to find that number, and if he could, I was fully prepared to put $2,000 on the over, which is a significant bet for me. He went to three casinos and they all had it at 8, which I passed on. I got lucky. Obviously, odds should be taken with a grain of salt, but the odds-makers did not gauge bettor perception to be that we were a 10+ win team like a lot (most?) of the folks on this board.
Preseason, I did think we were the clear-cut 3rd place pick for the league behind OU and OSU, so I'm a little disappointed with the season, but it wasn't a huge flop. Looking reasonably at our talent level with 20/20 hindsight, I feel we came up two games short. The Vanderbilt loss was unacceptable, and the WVU loss was a give-away. If we'd gone 10-3, 6-3, I'd have considered it a well-coached season. We lost a couple of other close ones, but we also won a couple close ones.
I do concede that the season raised more questions than some of our other seasons, even ones where we had similar or worse records. There were 3-4 times this season where I felt our performance fell way outside of the bell curve. What I mean by that is games where our performance was so far removed from reasonable expectations that it made me wonder what's going on. I'll use a WIN as an example: the KU game. I think if someone asked me prior to that game "what's the maximum amount of yardage you could see KU getting against us?", I'd have said 400. My prediction would have been 250-300, but since I'm a wiley ol' football watcher who has "seen it all", I would have said 400 because the question was "what's the MOST", not "what's your prediction?" Yet they had 482 yards with 418 of them coming via the pass. That is completely ridiculous. I don't care, ultimately, because the only stat that matters is the score, but it raises questions about consistency and the fundamental mindset/culture of the program.
I'm a Snyder guy because he's one of the best college football coaches of all time. Additionally (I'm not going to lie), there's an emotional component for me because I was the recipient of one of his letters at a time when it meant the world to me. But I also consider myself to be a relentlessly logical, math-oriented results guy, and that part of me thinks the incessant criticism of Snyder is irrational, as is the apparent desire by many to push him out the door. I am not as convinced as many here that hiring a new head coach is sure to lead to results better than what we've seen during Snyder 2.0.
I'm going to make the only comparison that exists, which is Joe Paterno. Let's look at age 75-79 for JoePa (2002 was his 37th year at PSU):
Age Year Conference Overall
75 2002 5-3 9-4
76 2003 1-7 3-9
77 2004 2-6 4-7
78 2005 7-1 11-1
79 2006 5-3 9-4
I'm not showing years 2000 and 2001, but they were about as ugly as 2003-4. That's what true down years looks like, folks, not 8-5, 5-4. Many were calling for his head in 2003 and 2004 and rightfully so. When you're going 3-9 and 4-7 people should be calling for your head. People were also wanting him to make a lot of changes to his staff (a common topic here, definitely). He finally did that and got to the Rose Bowl in 2005. Here's his next five seasons (he was forced out in 2011 mid-season due to the Sandusky scandal):
Age Year Conference Overall
80 2007 4-4 9-4
81 2008 7-1 11-2
82 2009 6-2 11-2
83 2010 4-4 7-6
84 2011 5-0 8-1
Let's look at Snyder 2.0:
Age Year Conference Overall
70 2009 4-4 6-6
71 2010 3-5 7-6
72 2011 7-2 10-3
73 2012 8-1 11-2
74 2013 5-4 8-5
75 2014 7-2 9-4
76 2015 3-6 6-7
77 2016 6-3 9-4
78 2017 5-4 8-5
Remember, Snyder came back after Prince, so 2009-2010 were rebuilding to some extent, unlike 2002-3 for JoePa. Regardless, Snyder is 48-31 in conference play (60.8% wins) during his 9-year 2.0 stint, and 74-42 overall (63.8%). JoePa was 41-31 in conference play (56.9%) in the 2002-2010 9-year window and 74-39 overall (65.5%).
Even in the last 5 seasons of Snyder 2.0, which included one nightmare season (2015) and has been a bit of a downer coming off of 2011 and 2012, his average conference record is 5.2 wins and 3.8 losses.
How much improvement, if any, do people think we'd experience if we hired Brent Venables or Jim Leavitt?
I do think if Snyder is planning to coach indefinitely or could see himself coaching another 4-5 seasons, he should change his messaging. When asked, he should simply say "as long as I'm healthy, contributing, excited, and the university wants me, I'll continue to coach" (which he HAS said multiple times, actually). I understand he has a process each year and that's fine, but he should express the fact that his default position going into the annual off-season process is that he plans to continue coaching, not say "I don't know yet" every year.
