I'm a very stats-oriented kind of guy. Watching them get blasted last night and watching Cueto struggle really got me thinking and worrying about the playoffs. After looking at the stats, I'm worried but also not worried. The records and the trends suggest I should be but the overall statistic say otherwise. Let me show you what I mean.
Concern #1:
Royals slumping at the wrong time of the year. KC is 2-7 in their last 9 games and have given up 64 runs in that slide (7+ runs per game allowed). Royals have 20 games left and have a very comfortable 10 game lead in the division but only a 2.5 game lead on Toronto for best record. It is absolutely crucial to get homefield throughout the playoffs (21 games above .500 at home, only 5 up on the road). Toronto has 19 games left (9 at home) while KC has 20 left and only 6 at home. Not looking good to hold onto that #1 spot especially the way we've been playing.
Concern #2
Royals have beaten a lot of good pitchers this year but man we've struggled overall against good teams. Look at our records against probable playoff teams:
AL:
Minnesota 9-7
Texas 3-3
Toronto 3-4
Astros 2-4
Yankees 2-4
NL:
St. Louis 2-4
Pittsburgh 2-1
Cubs 1-1 (1 game to go)
As you can see we have losing records against every playoff team we could face except 3 (could be down to 2 after we play the Cubs again). I know it doesn't always matter how we play in the regular season against someone but I hate seeing all those losing records against good teams.
Concern #3
Cueto.I was going to put him #1 but the team overall is more important than one pitcher. The dude has lost 5 straight games. Since joining the Royals he's 2-6 as a starter and has given up 34 runs in 9 games with 28 of those coming in the last 5. His ERA for the season is 3.47 still but man he's struggled mightily. With 20 games left all 5 starters have 4 starts left, I would rather see KC skip his next start and go with Young or Guthrie or basically anyone else so he can get his mind right and also so others can get a start under their belt before the playoffs in case someone gets hurt.
Good Sign #1
The rest of our probable 4-man playoff starters have been pretty good lately.
Volquez: (5-2) last 10 games and has given up just 27 earned runs in 63 innings in the span. Has a 3.47 season ERA.
Ventura: (7-1) last 10 games and given up just 24 earned runs in 62 innings in that span. Has a 4.42 season ERA.
Duffy: (3-3) last 10 games and given up 25 earned runs in 56 innings in that time. Has a 4.14 season ERA.
Good Sign #2
The pitching staff as a whole has been pretty darn good. HDH has gone through trials and tribulations this season but we have the 3rd best team ERA (3.77) in the AL. Hope we use Medlen and Young for spot duty if we have to go an inning or two before going to HDH.
Good Sign #3
The offense and defense is still there. We have the 2nd best team average (.271) in the majors and have the 4th most runs scored in the AL while giving up the 2nd least amount of runs in the AL. The lineup top to bottom has started to produce (I guess Escobar is in a slump) and that includes Moose and Rios. I love the new lineup honestly.
7 Gordon
4 Zobrist
8 Cain
3 Hosmer
DH Morales
5 Moose
2 Perez
9 Rios
6 Escobar
The team still has the best record in the AL and we're making the playoffs. If you would have said that to me at the beginning of the season I would have taken it in a heartbeat. A lot of baseball left. Hopefully this is just a slump and we can start playing great baseball and head into the postseason with some momentum!
extra stats for the nerds:
Royals are:
3-4 on turf
18-16 vs AL East
35-25 vs the Central
18-11 AL West
13-6 Interleague
58-32 vs RHP
26-26 vs LHP
Concern #1:
Royals slumping at the wrong time of the year. KC is 2-7 in their last 9 games and have given up 64 runs in that slide (7+ runs per game allowed). Royals have 20 games left and have a very comfortable 10 game lead in the division but only a 2.5 game lead on Toronto for best record. It is absolutely crucial to get homefield throughout the playoffs (21 games above .500 at home, only 5 up on the road). Toronto has 19 games left (9 at home) while KC has 20 left and only 6 at home. Not looking good to hold onto that #1 spot especially the way we've been playing.
Concern #2
Royals have beaten a lot of good pitchers this year but man we've struggled overall against good teams. Look at our records against probable playoff teams:
AL:
Minnesota 9-7
Texas 3-3
Toronto 3-4
Astros 2-4
Yankees 2-4
NL:
St. Louis 2-4
Pittsburgh 2-1
Cubs 1-1 (1 game to go)
As you can see we have losing records against every playoff team we could face except 3 (could be down to 2 after we play the Cubs again). I know it doesn't always matter how we play in the regular season against someone but I hate seeing all those losing records against good teams.
Concern #3
Cueto.I was going to put him #1 but the team overall is more important than one pitcher. The dude has lost 5 straight games. Since joining the Royals he's 2-6 as a starter and has given up 34 runs in 9 games with 28 of those coming in the last 5. His ERA for the season is 3.47 still but man he's struggled mightily. With 20 games left all 5 starters have 4 starts left, I would rather see KC skip his next start and go with Young or Guthrie or basically anyone else so he can get his mind right and also so others can get a start under their belt before the playoffs in case someone gets hurt.
Good Sign #1
The rest of our probable 4-man playoff starters have been pretty good lately.
Volquez: (5-2) last 10 games and has given up just 27 earned runs in 63 innings in the span. Has a 3.47 season ERA.
Ventura: (7-1) last 10 games and given up just 24 earned runs in 62 innings in that span. Has a 4.42 season ERA.
Duffy: (3-3) last 10 games and given up 25 earned runs in 56 innings in that time. Has a 4.14 season ERA.
Good Sign #2
The pitching staff as a whole has been pretty darn good. HDH has gone through trials and tribulations this season but we have the 3rd best team ERA (3.77) in the AL. Hope we use Medlen and Young for spot duty if we have to go an inning or two before going to HDH.
Good Sign #3
The offense and defense is still there. We have the 2nd best team average (.271) in the majors and have the 4th most runs scored in the AL while giving up the 2nd least amount of runs in the AL. The lineup top to bottom has started to produce (I guess Escobar is in a slump) and that includes Moose and Rios. I love the new lineup honestly.
7 Gordon
4 Zobrist
8 Cain
3 Hosmer
DH Morales
5 Moose
2 Perez
9 Rios
6 Escobar
The team still has the best record in the AL and we're making the playoffs. If you would have said that to me at the beginning of the season I would have taken it in a heartbeat. A lot of baseball left. Hopefully this is just a slump and we can start playing great baseball and head into the postseason with some momentum!
extra stats for the nerds:
Royals are:
3-4 on turf
18-16 vs AL East
35-25 vs the Central
18-11 AL West
13-6 Interleague
58-32 vs RHP
26-26 vs LHP
