There is nothing like a good "is Scott Drew a good coach" debate. Even though most fellow coaches consider him a little slimy and that Baylor missed the NCAAs last year, I'd say rebuilding that program from what he inherited and 4 Sweet 16s with 2 Elite 8s since 2010 would say that he probably is pretty good. He recruits fairly well somehow (currently 5 Top 100 players in their top 7) and he likely has his 8th tournament team in the last 12 seasons.
This year may be one of his best coaching jobs yet. Baylor lost 4 really good seniors (Lecomte, Lual-Acuil, Maston, & Omot) from last year's NIT team, then lost a key returner in the summer (Lindsey), and then lost their best player (Tristan Clark) after 2 Big 12 games. However, with Clark they looked like an NIT team at best; their best wins were over Iowa State and struggling Pac 12 teams Oregon and Arizona with losses to Texas Southern, Stephen F Austin, and rebuilding Wichita State. They were shooting only 29% from 3 and relying on offensive boarding and decent defense.
Somehow after that the flip was switched; despite one of Drew's smallest line ups in years, they kept up the dominant rebounding and have won 6 of 8 without Clark while hitting over 40% from behind the arc.
Baylor has the best offense in the Big 12 (1.15 ppp), led by 3PT shooting and offensive rebounding. 40% of their shots are 3s in Big 12 play and they connect on 40% while rebounding 39% of their misses. That's a pretty good combo for efficiency. They are also solid on 2s (just over 50%), but below average at taking care of the ball and well below average at drawing fouls. I'm not so sure their shooting is sustainable, especially if Mason's injury is serious. He only played 5 minutes in the 2nd half against Texas and ended the game with his worst offensive performance of the season.
Defensively, Baylor still runs their mix of zones and without Clark they have been pretty average. In Big 12 play they still dominate the defensive glass, but are below average everywhere else. Their eFG% is poor, they are bad against both 2s and 3s, they don't force TOs at a high clip, and they foul more than nearly everyone in the league.
Baylor's best player Makai Mason is an Ivy League grad transfer that played 1 game over the previous 2 seasons. As a SO at Yale in 2016 he was first team all league and led Yale to their first NCAA tournament in over 60 years with a upset in the first round over... Baylor. Then he got injured before his junior season when he was named preseason Ivy League POTY and reinjured going into his SR year, when he played 1 game in mid February. Mason missed this year's first 3 games with another injury, but has played well since, leading up to Tuesday's game vs Texas. He went from a 35% 3PT shooter at Yale to a 39% shooter at Baylor, including 45% in Big 12 games. His efficiency, scoring rate, and shooting numbers would put him on the midway point All Big 12 first team.
McClure and Vital are Baylor's 2 remaining pieces from last year's team and have played well. Both are pretty efficient players and good rebounders. Mario Kegler is a transfer from Mississippi State and Baylor's tallest starter at 6-7. Another good rebounder and solid scorer, but not a big 3PT threat. Jared Butler is a really good freshman and the other double digit scorer for the Bears in Big 12 games. He shoots it at over 40% from 3 and is Baylor's leader in assists.
Baylor plays 4 guys at least 12 minutes per game off the bench, so they are fairly deep. Bandoo is a JUCO transfer and hitting better than 50% from behind the arc. Gillispie is a D3 transfer and currently a walkon, but a great rebounder and efficient scorer. Mayer and Thamba are Baylor's 2 biggest players at 6-9 and 6-10 and provide the main size for the Bears. Even without Clark Drew doesn't lack talent as Butler, McClure, Vital, Kegler, and Mayer were all Top 100 players coming out of high school.
Defensively for K-State it seems pretty simple; defend the 3 and keep Baylor off the boards. If they hit 40% from 3 and we don't match them while rebounding 1/3 or better of their misses we will be in trouble. If we win one or the other of those stats we will be in the game and if we win both we'll win comfortably. Baylor is okay inside, but they likely won't dominate on 2s as without Clark 38% of their points scored come from behind the arc.
Offensively attack the zone and get good shots inside of it like we did well last year. Both games the Cats shot 60% or better from 2 and we had two of our top 5 offensive games in Big 12 play against Baylor. We also had FT rates of 48% or better in both games.
TOs are always keys to watch as well. K-State's defense turns teams over more than anyone in Big 12 play and we can take advantage of Baylor's average ability to take care of it.
I think K-State goes down to Waco and handles business. Baylor looks to be coming back down to earth and if Mason's foot injuries are popping back up, that is likely an injury that this time the team won't be able to overcome.
Cats 70 - Bears 62
This year may be one of his best coaching jobs yet. Baylor lost 4 really good seniors (Lecomte, Lual-Acuil, Maston, & Omot) from last year's NIT team, then lost a key returner in the summer (Lindsey), and then lost their best player (Tristan Clark) after 2 Big 12 games. However, with Clark they looked like an NIT team at best; their best wins were over Iowa State and struggling Pac 12 teams Oregon and Arizona with losses to Texas Southern, Stephen F Austin, and rebuilding Wichita State. They were shooting only 29% from 3 and relying on offensive boarding and decent defense.
Somehow after that the flip was switched; despite one of Drew's smallest line ups in years, they kept up the dominant rebounding and have won 6 of 8 without Clark while hitting over 40% from behind the arc.
Baylor has the best offense in the Big 12 (1.15 ppp), led by 3PT shooting and offensive rebounding. 40% of their shots are 3s in Big 12 play and they connect on 40% while rebounding 39% of their misses. That's a pretty good combo for efficiency. They are also solid on 2s (just over 50%), but below average at taking care of the ball and well below average at drawing fouls. I'm not so sure their shooting is sustainable, especially if Mason's injury is serious. He only played 5 minutes in the 2nd half against Texas and ended the game with his worst offensive performance of the season.
Defensively, Baylor still runs their mix of zones and without Clark they have been pretty average. In Big 12 play they still dominate the defensive glass, but are below average everywhere else. Their eFG% is poor, they are bad against both 2s and 3s, they don't force TOs at a high clip, and they foul more than nearly everyone in the league.
Baylor's best player Makai Mason is an Ivy League grad transfer that played 1 game over the previous 2 seasons. As a SO at Yale in 2016 he was first team all league and led Yale to their first NCAA tournament in over 60 years with a upset in the first round over... Baylor. Then he got injured before his junior season when he was named preseason Ivy League POTY and reinjured going into his SR year, when he played 1 game in mid February. Mason missed this year's first 3 games with another injury, but has played well since, leading up to Tuesday's game vs Texas. He went from a 35% 3PT shooter at Yale to a 39% shooter at Baylor, including 45% in Big 12 games. His efficiency, scoring rate, and shooting numbers would put him on the midway point All Big 12 first team.
McClure and Vital are Baylor's 2 remaining pieces from last year's team and have played well. Both are pretty efficient players and good rebounders. Mario Kegler is a transfer from Mississippi State and Baylor's tallest starter at 6-7. Another good rebounder and solid scorer, but not a big 3PT threat. Jared Butler is a really good freshman and the other double digit scorer for the Bears in Big 12 games. He shoots it at over 40% from 3 and is Baylor's leader in assists.
Baylor plays 4 guys at least 12 minutes per game off the bench, so they are fairly deep. Bandoo is a JUCO transfer and hitting better than 50% from behind the arc. Gillispie is a D3 transfer and currently a walkon, but a great rebounder and efficient scorer. Mayer and Thamba are Baylor's 2 biggest players at 6-9 and 6-10 and provide the main size for the Bears. Even without Clark Drew doesn't lack talent as Butler, McClure, Vital, Kegler, and Mayer were all Top 100 players coming out of high school.
Defensively for K-State it seems pretty simple; defend the 3 and keep Baylor off the boards. If they hit 40% from 3 and we don't match them while rebounding 1/3 or better of their misses we will be in trouble. If we win one or the other of those stats we will be in the game and if we win both we'll win comfortably. Baylor is okay inside, but they likely won't dominate on 2s as without Clark 38% of their points scored come from behind the arc.
Offensively attack the zone and get good shots inside of it like we did well last year. Both games the Cats shot 60% or better from 2 and we had two of our top 5 offensive games in Big 12 play against Baylor. We also had FT rates of 48% or better in both games.
TOs are always keys to watch as well. K-State's defense turns teams over more than anyone in Big 12 play and we can take advantage of Baylor's average ability to take care of it.
I think K-State goes down to Waco and handles business. Baylor looks to be coming back down to earth and if Mason's foot injuries are popping back up, that is likely an injury that this time the team won't be able to overcome.
Cats 70 - Bears 62
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