Another date with the Golden Hurricane, hopefully replacing some of the memories of last year's disastrous performance in Wichita. Tulsa is coached by the infamous Frank Haith, known for leaving 2 programs with sanctions, yet somehow landing another job. Haith has 4 NCAAs in his previous 14 seasons as a head coach, plus 6 NIT appearances. At Tulsa, Haith's teams have been known for their attacking style, getting to the FT line often while ranking top 20 nationally in FT rate the last 2 seasons. His mixture of zone defense leads to opposing offenses shooting a lot of 3s, as we saw first hand last year. The last couple of seasons that rate is 40% or better.
From a statistical profile, this Tulsa team really isn't great at a lot, though they get to the FT line often, take care of the ball well, and are pretty good on 2s. Tulsa's offense was impressive in their loss to Nevada with an efficiency of 1.22 and 70% on 2s, but they gave up 1.36 and allowed 32 FT attempts. Otherwise their best offense is against >200 kenpom teams. They aren't quite as bad as us, but their 3PT shooting is similar. A big thing to watch will be if our pressure defense can force TOs. Their highest TO rate of the year is 23% with only 2 games at 20% or worse, meanwhile we've forced at least 21% in every game. As said above, Haith's offenses and this year's team are really good at getting to the FT line and after last week's disaster at Marquette, that may be another area to watch. I'm not real concerned we'll see a complete repeat, but this is a road game so you never know. Keep in mind, after opening with a loss to Lamar last year, Tulsa has won 19 of their previous 20 home games with their only loss in that stretch coming to a good Wichita State last season. They did not play Cincinnati or Houston at home last year, so the best wins are over kenpom #84 SMU and #86 Houston last year and #57 Oklahoma State last night.
When Tulsa is on defense, we're going to see a variety of zone defenses. Haith's schemes force you to be very patient and use the clock and opponents average 18.2 seconds per possession, one of the highest marks in college basketball. Usually opponents struggle a bit in the paint; Tulsa is generally above average against 2s, and Haith seems perfectly happy playing the 3 point lottery. Last year we played right into that with 32 threes attempted, our high mark of the season, compared to only 25 twos. A great way to beat Tulsa, especially this year, is to attack and get to the FT line. The opponent's FT rate of 38.6% is by far their worst aspect in regards to the 4 factors, ranking 269 nationally. In all 3 losses this year, opponents have had a FT rate of at least 54% with at least 26 attempts. Last year we shot 17 FTs with a rate of only 29.8%. Tulsa is also not a strong defensive rebounding team with opponents boarding 28.8% of their missed shots, so this is another area the Cats could exploit and extend possessions. The wildcard will be our ability to hit some 3s, if we shoot like we did against Missouri this could be a comfortable win. However, I'm not expecting that, I just am hopeful we don't attempt more than 20.
3 of Tulsa's biggest contributors from last year's upset over K-State are gone, including Junior Etou's who scored 22 points on a 38% usage rate. However, Taplin and Igbanu are back while this year's best player, DaQuan Jeffries, did not play in Wichita because of injury. 5 of Haith's top 10 are transfers from other programs.
Jeffries (Oral Roberts transfer) is a really good senior and leads Tulsa in PPG, points per 100, and offensive rating. He is an incredible 79% on 2s and a solid 34% on 3s with over 4 attempts per game. Taplin is a SR point guard who is involved in more possessions than anyone else and has a great assist numbers, but at a low efficiency. He's only hitting 25% from 3 with an offensive rating of 1.03. Igbanu is one of 3 Tulsa players at 6-7 or taller, but he's their 2nd best scorer with a very high FT rate. He's 61% on 2s and rarely will step out for a 3, also one of Tulsa's best rebounders. Those 3 are the only Tulsa players to start all 9 games this year.
After that, Haith has guards Scott, Korita, Barnes (UTEP transfer), and Moore (St Louis transfer) that have each started 4 games. Korita has started the last 3 while Scott has started 4 of the last 6. Moore didn't play against OSU. Korita has a solid offensive rating and is hitting 1/3 of his 3s. Scott has a poor offensive rating and is also hitting 1/3 of his 3s. Barnes and Moore have Tulsa's two worst offensive ratings and neither has hit a 3. Nebraska transfer Jeriah Horne and Elijah Joiner are Haith's best two contributors off the bench and Tulsa's top 2 three point shooters. Some of you may remember Joiner hitting a dagger 3 after the under 4 last year.
I'm anxious to see how the Cats come out for this one. Energy should not be a problem and this team should be very hungry for a win considering that the Marquette debacle was the only game in the last 2 weeks. I fully expect a good performance and a rebound from last Saturday, though I don't think we will run away and blow Tulsa out.
K-State 67 - Tulsa 61.
From a statistical profile, this Tulsa team really isn't great at a lot, though they get to the FT line often, take care of the ball well, and are pretty good on 2s. Tulsa's offense was impressive in their loss to Nevada with an efficiency of 1.22 and 70% on 2s, but they gave up 1.36 and allowed 32 FT attempts. Otherwise their best offense is against >200 kenpom teams. They aren't quite as bad as us, but their 3PT shooting is similar. A big thing to watch will be if our pressure defense can force TOs. Their highest TO rate of the year is 23% with only 2 games at 20% or worse, meanwhile we've forced at least 21% in every game. As said above, Haith's offenses and this year's team are really good at getting to the FT line and after last week's disaster at Marquette, that may be another area to watch. I'm not real concerned we'll see a complete repeat, but this is a road game so you never know. Keep in mind, after opening with a loss to Lamar last year, Tulsa has won 19 of their previous 20 home games with their only loss in that stretch coming to a good Wichita State last season. They did not play Cincinnati or Houston at home last year, so the best wins are over kenpom #84 SMU and #86 Houston last year and #57 Oklahoma State last night.
When Tulsa is on defense, we're going to see a variety of zone defenses. Haith's schemes force you to be very patient and use the clock and opponents average 18.2 seconds per possession, one of the highest marks in college basketball. Usually opponents struggle a bit in the paint; Tulsa is generally above average against 2s, and Haith seems perfectly happy playing the 3 point lottery. Last year we played right into that with 32 threes attempted, our high mark of the season, compared to only 25 twos. A great way to beat Tulsa, especially this year, is to attack and get to the FT line. The opponent's FT rate of 38.6% is by far their worst aspect in regards to the 4 factors, ranking 269 nationally. In all 3 losses this year, opponents have had a FT rate of at least 54% with at least 26 attempts. Last year we shot 17 FTs with a rate of only 29.8%. Tulsa is also not a strong defensive rebounding team with opponents boarding 28.8% of their missed shots, so this is another area the Cats could exploit and extend possessions. The wildcard will be our ability to hit some 3s, if we shoot like we did against Missouri this could be a comfortable win. However, I'm not expecting that, I just am hopeful we don't attempt more than 20.
3 of Tulsa's biggest contributors from last year's upset over K-State are gone, including Junior Etou's who scored 22 points on a 38% usage rate. However, Taplin and Igbanu are back while this year's best player, DaQuan Jeffries, did not play in Wichita because of injury. 5 of Haith's top 10 are transfers from other programs.
Jeffries (Oral Roberts transfer) is a really good senior and leads Tulsa in PPG, points per 100, and offensive rating. He is an incredible 79% on 2s and a solid 34% on 3s with over 4 attempts per game. Taplin is a SR point guard who is involved in more possessions than anyone else and has a great assist numbers, but at a low efficiency. He's only hitting 25% from 3 with an offensive rating of 1.03. Igbanu is one of 3 Tulsa players at 6-7 or taller, but he's their 2nd best scorer with a very high FT rate. He's 61% on 2s and rarely will step out for a 3, also one of Tulsa's best rebounders. Those 3 are the only Tulsa players to start all 9 games this year.
After that, Haith has guards Scott, Korita, Barnes (UTEP transfer), and Moore (St Louis transfer) that have each started 4 games. Korita has started the last 3 while Scott has started 4 of the last 6. Moore didn't play against OSU. Korita has a solid offensive rating and is hitting 1/3 of his 3s. Scott has a poor offensive rating and is also hitting 1/3 of his 3s. Barnes and Moore have Tulsa's two worst offensive ratings and neither has hit a 3. Nebraska transfer Jeriah Horne and Elijah Joiner are Haith's best two contributors off the bench and Tulsa's top 2 three point shooters. Some of you may remember Joiner hitting a dagger 3 after the under 4 last year.
I'm anxious to see how the Cats come out for this one. Energy should not be a problem and this team should be very hungry for a win considering that the Marquette debacle was the only game in the last 2 weeks. I fully expect a good performance and a rebound from last Saturday, though I don't think we will run away and blow Tulsa out.
K-State 67 - Tulsa 61.
