RLM is line movement that goes against public betting. For example, if 70% of bets are on Kentucky -5.5 vs. Kansas State but the line drops to -4.5, that is a clear indication that sharp money is on K-State. Reverse line movement doesn’t just work for the spread, it is useful when betting totals too.
Since 2005 in the Sweet 16, betting the under has gone 56-46-2 (54.9%). With unders being historically profitable late in the tournament, we theorized that we could increase our win rate by finding totals with reverse line movement. In Sweet 16 games with 50% or more of bets on the over and a total that DECREASES from open to close, the under has gone 21-11-2.
The results are great but the sample is small. Fortunately, this system is profitable in every round after the Sweet 16 as well.
By including not only the Sweet 16 but also the Elite Eight, Final Four and championship games, the most heavily bet March Madness matchups, we more than double our sample size. Unders with reverse line movement late in the tournament have gone 42-29-2 (59.2%) since 2005.
What unders are the pros playing in the Sweet 16?
Sharp Sweet 16 Totals
#7 Nevada vs. #11 Loyola-Chicago (Thursday, 7:07 p.m. ET ): The total for this matchup opened 143.5, but has been bet down to 143 despite a majority of tickets and dollars being on the over.
#2 Purdue vs. #3 Texas Tech (Friday, 9:57 p.m. ET ): Fifty-five percent of bets have been placed on the over, as we would expect. However, unlike Nevada-Loyola Chicago, a majority of money is on the under here, moving the line from 138.5 to 137.5.
Since 2005 in the Sweet 16, betting the under has gone 56-46-2 (54.9%). With unders being historically profitable late in the tournament, we theorized that we could increase our win rate by finding totals with reverse line movement. In Sweet 16 games with 50% or more of bets on the over and a total that DECREASES from open to close, the under has gone 21-11-2.
The results are great but the sample is small. Fortunately, this system is profitable in every round after the Sweet 16 as well.
By including not only the Sweet 16 but also the Elite Eight, Final Four and championship games, the most heavily bet March Madness matchups, we more than double our sample size. Unders with reverse line movement late in the tournament have gone 42-29-2 (59.2%) since 2005.
What unders are the pros playing in the Sweet 16?
Sharp Sweet 16 Totals
#7 Nevada vs. #11 Loyola-Chicago (Thursday, 7:07 p.m. ET ): The total for this matchup opened 143.5, but has been bet down to 143 despite a majority of tickets and dollars being on the over.
#2 Purdue vs. #3 Texas Tech (Friday, 9:57 p.m. ET ): Fifty-five percent of bets have been placed on the over, as we would expect. However, unlike Nevada-Loyola Chicago, a majority of money is on the under here, moving the line from 138.5 to 137.5.
