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Talk me off the "bowl bubble" ledge

bradyp08

All-American performer
Gold Member
Mar 21, 2007
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So I've been looking at our schedule for awhile now (mainly to see which game I can make it back for) and it worries me. Our schedule is set up perfectly if we were a title contending team with all the top teams coming to BSFS. Unfortunately though this year, whether we like it or not, is a rebuilding year. Now before you jump on me a rebuilding year can still be 7/8 wins but what I mean is we most likely won't be a 10+ win team. Anyways here is the schedule with what I think the chances of winning each game is next to it.

  • S. Dakota - 99%
  • @ UTSA - 80%
  • La. Tech - 85%
  • @ OSU - 30%
  • TCU - 30%
  • OU - 35%
  • @ UT - 45%
  • Baylor - 35%
  • @ TT - 55%
  • ISU - 80%
  • @ KU - 95%
  • WVU - 75%
First off I think I was pretty favorable with the odds for K-State here. I think we will be favored in all 3 non-con games and the back half of our Big 12 schedule (@TT, ISU, @KU, WVU). So if we win the games we are supposed to win that gets us to 7 victories on the season. That assumes nothing goes wrong, we don't have an early season mistake or screw up somewhere like @TT being the most obvious one we could lose. The game at TT is also going to be their Senior night where they will most likely be fighting to stay bowl elgible (if they win what they should they'd be 4-6 at that point) so definitely would be a challenging game for our guys. Also Vegas (Bovada) agrees with me and says 7 is or over/under for the season.

Here is where my concern comes in. My worry is that we will have a young team that will more likely than not be 3-4 going into a critical game @TT. Being a team with a "bad" record can really take a toll on a team mentally and I'm not sure that this team will have the leaders to overcome that.

I guess what I'm getting at is that the way our schedule lines up I don't have a lot of faith going into this season to be a productive one. If I were a betting man I'd bet we make a bowl but like I said this is a young team with an early road test at UTSA and a tougher than most realize non-con game vs La Tech. Even assuming they come out of that unscathed they could take four straight loses where some could even be embarrassing at home vs TCU and Baylor.

Anyways if someone who isn't an incredible homer could talk me off the "bowl bubble" ledge as I call it that'd be wonderful.
 
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