D
Derek Young
Guest
1) Is it done? Not technically. But it sure seems as close to being done as it could be. But Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State were also on the one-yard line of leaving the Big 12 ten years ago for the Pac-12. That's not to say this won't happen, though, and there's a better chance that it will. I can insert my feelings about their decision to do so here but it really wouldn't matter.
2) Evidence that we are close? The two schools or the SEC would be categorically denying it if there wasn't a shred of validity to the rumor. Instead, it was likely leaked by Texas A&M who got out in front of it and tried to crush it. Greg Sankey offered a non-comment instead of a denial and Texas and Oklahoma both issued statements, that weren't in denial, that seemed to be in conjunction with one another. Furthermore, I spoke to two sources connected to the SEC about it late last night with one saying, "Kansas State and Iowa State better be making calls" and another saying, "Texas A&M doesn't want it but I don't know that it ultimately matters". Reading between the lines, they are speaking as if it is done.
3) It's not a great look for Bob Bowlsby. If we want to blame fingers right now, the failure of leadership has been at the conference level. Now, the Big 12 is at the mercy of Texas and Oklahoma so there's only so much that can be done, but you can't be so out of the loop as to not counteract or stay on top of it and be so misinformed that you can't help out your members whatsoever. That appears to be the case in this situation. Not only did Bowlsby say in Arlington one week ago that realignment wasn't what kept him up late at night, he doubled down in a radio interview where he shared that the chemistry, relationships and strength of its members is the strongest it has been in his tenure.
Put another way, Bowlsby and the Big 12 had zero clue.
4) Is there a way out of it? I think it would take a miracle. This seems pretty far down the road already. Is it a massive television contract? Is it the rest of the Big 12 having to bend over backwards even further for Texas and Oklahoma? Is it being lucky enough for Texas A&M to have the power to squash it? Did the Big 12 do anything, concoct anything or devise anything in the last 10 years to prepare for this moment?
5) What would happen to Kansas State? It's not clear. Do the holdovers from the Big 12 try to stick together? They could, but that league without OU and UT and adding schools along the lines of Houston/UCF/Memphis/BYU/Cincinnati isn't getting a large media rights deal. So, the holdovers are going to be more inclined to join a league that does. Will other leagues swoop in for any? They could. But aside from feeling like they need inventory, I don't think those other leagues add teams just to add them. There's not going to be a desire to decrease payout to its members, thus they're only going to expand if the inclusion of that particular team inflates that amount. Aside from Texas and Oklahoma, I'm not sure that is the case for anyone. If the P12 wants central time zone inventory, clearly Kansas State becomes a part of the conversation but the politics and cultural differences would make that a humongous challenge, so the league would have to be extremely motivated to consider that route i.e. it make a difference in a media rights package for them.
6) Another angle to consider is all the money that was just pumped into some of the facilities and all the money still to be pumped into the rest of the facilities. It's not time to jump to conclusions or perhaps even go this far, and it is money pledged by donors of course, but one wonders if a pause is put on this until they are certain of the landscape and if it is conducive to go forward.
7) Lastly, the recruiting ramifications could obviously be massive. I'm not going to pretend to know if this will have any kind of immediate impact, but I'm also not going to pretend to believe that it absolutely won't. It's going to be an easy pitch to a kid that is being recruited by a school without instability to lob that thought to a prospect about a Kansas State, or an Iowa State, etc. Particularly the Cyclones, given the class that they have already assembled in the 2022 cycle of course. Maybe that won't rear its head this year if we are indeed 3 or 4 years away from this taking place (though I imagine it may end up being sooner), but InsideTexas is an independent Texas site that already has quotes from prospects from Texas saying that they would commit to the Longhorns, or close to it, right now if they announced that they were joining the SEC. It likely wouldn't affect them either if it is truly 3-4 years down the road but that isn't stopping them from jumping on that wagon already.
2) Evidence that we are close? The two schools or the SEC would be categorically denying it if there wasn't a shred of validity to the rumor. Instead, it was likely leaked by Texas A&M who got out in front of it and tried to crush it. Greg Sankey offered a non-comment instead of a denial and Texas and Oklahoma both issued statements, that weren't in denial, that seemed to be in conjunction with one another. Furthermore, I spoke to two sources connected to the SEC about it late last night with one saying, "Kansas State and Iowa State better be making calls" and another saying, "Texas A&M doesn't want it but I don't know that it ultimately matters". Reading between the lines, they are speaking as if it is done.
3) It's not a great look for Bob Bowlsby. If we want to blame fingers right now, the failure of leadership has been at the conference level. Now, the Big 12 is at the mercy of Texas and Oklahoma so there's only so much that can be done, but you can't be so out of the loop as to not counteract or stay on top of it and be so misinformed that you can't help out your members whatsoever. That appears to be the case in this situation. Not only did Bowlsby say in Arlington one week ago that realignment wasn't what kept him up late at night, he doubled down in a radio interview where he shared that the chemistry, relationships and strength of its members is the strongest it has been in his tenure.
Put another way, Bowlsby and the Big 12 had zero clue.
4) Is there a way out of it? I think it would take a miracle. This seems pretty far down the road already. Is it a massive television contract? Is it the rest of the Big 12 having to bend over backwards even further for Texas and Oklahoma? Is it being lucky enough for Texas A&M to have the power to squash it? Did the Big 12 do anything, concoct anything or devise anything in the last 10 years to prepare for this moment?
5) What would happen to Kansas State? It's not clear. Do the holdovers from the Big 12 try to stick together? They could, but that league without OU and UT and adding schools along the lines of Houston/UCF/Memphis/BYU/Cincinnati isn't getting a large media rights deal. So, the holdovers are going to be more inclined to join a league that does. Will other leagues swoop in for any? They could. But aside from feeling like they need inventory, I don't think those other leagues add teams just to add them. There's not going to be a desire to decrease payout to its members, thus they're only going to expand if the inclusion of that particular team inflates that amount. Aside from Texas and Oklahoma, I'm not sure that is the case for anyone. If the P12 wants central time zone inventory, clearly Kansas State becomes a part of the conversation but the politics and cultural differences would make that a humongous challenge, so the league would have to be extremely motivated to consider that route i.e. it make a difference in a media rights package for them.
6) Another angle to consider is all the money that was just pumped into some of the facilities and all the money still to be pumped into the rest of the facilities. It's not time to jump to conclusions or perhaps even go this far, and it is money pledged by donors of course, but one wonders if a pause is put on this until they are certain of the landscape and if it is conducive to go forward.
7) Lastly, the recruiting ramifications could obviously be massive. I'm not going to pretend to know if this will have any kind of immediate impact, but I'm also not going to pretend to believe that it absolutely won't. It's going to be an easy pitch to a kid that is being recruited by a school without instability to lob that thought to a prospect about a Kansas State, or an Iowa State, etc. Particularly the Cyclones, given the class that they have already assembled in the 2022 cycle of course. Maybe that won't rear its head this year if we are indeed 3 or 4 years away from this taking place (though I imagine it may end up being sooner), but InsideTexas is an independent Texas site that already has quotes from prospects from Texas saying that they would commit to the Longhorns, or close to it, right now if they announced that they were joining the SEC. It likely wouldn't affect them either if it is truly 3-4 years down the road but that isn't stopping them from jumping on that wagon already.
