D
Derek Young
Guest
1: Folks I talk to around the league continue to believe that it is a foregone conclusion that UT and OU are out the door to the SEC. In terms of who sought who, I definitely think much of the heavy lifting was done by the two schools and actually caught the SEC by surprise and was pretty recent. Most sources I've touched base with also shared my sentiment about Texas A&M popping off the lid on it. I would say it's done, and that Texas and OU are definitely the aggressor of the two sides. SEC mostly just getting everything arranged about how it would work, if it would work. Most believe it gets done.
2: After speaking with a few folks tied to various other Big 12 schools, I do think that they were caught off guard and blindsided. Most or all had no clue. Sounds like Oklahoma State may have heard a whisper, judging by their reactionary statement, but the Big 12 as a whole was surprised. That much could be concluded by Bowlsby's comments in the last week.
3: Something I have shared, and had expressed/reiterated to me by some folks that have been involved with realignment before, is that the other leagues don't have to add anyone else. It's not like the SEC going to 16 means everyone has to try to do that to keep up. Weakening the Big 12 or having it merge with a G5 league is probably good for those other leagues, in an effort to get higher pay on their next media rights deal and cut in line so to speak. There's no heavy hitters left that a league will feel they have to get to boost a media rights package or to even prevent someone else from grabbing them. No other school that could be available is really going to move the needle.
4: That goes to my next point. Waiting and possibly hoping for that could get you in trouble. It may not come. Those conversations are likely taking place. But the only scenario in which a league's media rights package can really inflate by expansion MAY (and it's not even a certainty) be the P12 if they tried to stretch into the central time zone, just because it would increase their visibility. But, think about that conference's values and brand. It's as much about academics and politics as any other, and it would have a lot of stakeholders having very little interest in adding schools from Texas, Oklahoma and/or Kansas. WVU would be the outlier because of how they could make sense for the ACC, say, if they were to coax Notre Dame into joining. If the Big Ten wanted to challenge some GOR too, though, and pluck away some ACC schools, that would be where the real chaos would begin, though nobody foresees that at this point.
5: Which brings me to next point. A few people that have done this before believe the best case scenario would be for the remaining eight schools to bind together, formally, and add up to four more schools. In this scenario, they believe they should probably grab a Texas school with a large enrollment, a la Houston, and a large enrollment school in Florida, a la UCF, then Memphis and Cincinnati. Obviously, those have been things that have been discussed on here already but also the "best case" plan that some former school administrators around the country see for the league's members if OU and UT bolt.
6: A couple have expressed belief that the above would still be enough to be considered a Power Five school, but I'd have my doubts.
7: Lastly, although it would be ideal to the Regents, much like what would be the case of Oklahoma, neither KU or K-State would be blocked from joining a power conference league because the other school wasn't also invited. It would still be permitted, but I'm sure that's not a surprise to anyone reading this.
2: After speaking with a few folks tied to various other Big 12 schools, I do think that they were caught off guard and blindsided. Most or all had no clue. Sounds like Oklahoma State may have heard a whisper, judging by their reactionary statement, but the Big 12 as a whole was surprised. That much could be concluded by Bowlsby's comments in the last week.
3: Something I have shared, and had expressed/reiterated to me by some folks that have been involved with realignment before, is that the other leagues don't have to add anyone else. It's not like the SEC going to 16 means everyone has to try to do that to keep up. Weakening the Big 12 or having it merge with a G5 league is probably good for those other leagues, in an effort to get higher pay on their next media rights deal and cut in line so to speak. There's no heavy hitters left that a league will feel they have to get to boost a media rights package or to even prevent someone else from grabbing them. No other school that could be available is really going to move the needle.
4: That goes to my next point. Waiting and possibly hoping for that could get you in trouble. It may not come. Those conversations are likely taking place. But the only scenario in which a league's media rights package can really inflate by expansion MAY (and it's not even a certainty) be the P12 if they tried to stretch into the central time zone, just because it would increase their visibility. But, think about that conference's values and brand. It's as much about academics and politics as any other, and it would have a lot of stakeholders having very little interest in adding schools from Texas, Oklahoma and/or Kansas. WVU would be the outlier because of how they could make sense for the ACC, say, if they were to coax Notre Dame into joining. If the Big Ten wanted to challenge some GOR too, though, and pluck away some ACC schools, that would be where the real chaos would begin, though nobody foresees that at this point.
5: Which brings me to next point. A few people that have done this before believe the best case scenario would be for the remaining eight schools to bind together, formally, and add up to four more schools. In this scenario, they believe they should probably grab a Texas school with a large enrollment, a la Houston, and a large enrollment school in Florida, a la UCF, then Memphis and Cincinnati. Obviously, those have been things that have been discussed on here already but also the "best case" plan that some former school administrators around the country see for the league's members if OU and UT bolt.
6: A couple have expressed belief that the above would still be enough to be considered a Power Five school, but I'd have my doubts.
7: Lastly, although it would be ideal to the Regents, much like what would be the case of Oklahoma, neither KU or K-State would be blocked from joining a power conference league because the other school wasn't also invited. It would still be permitted, but I'm sure that's not a surprise to anyone reading this.
