This isn't a perfect way to look at things and there are some inherent flaws, but I isolated efficiency, each of the four factors (eFG%, TO%, OR%, and FT rate), and 2PT%/3PT% to find patterns for winning and losing for 2018 K-State basketball. The results are in the chart(s) below. Recall that the creator of the 4 factors, Dean Oliver, calculated the following for the weight of winning games; shooting (eFG%) 40%, turnovers (TO%) 25%, rebounding (OR%) 20%, and free throws (FT rate) 15%. NCAA averages for each category are at the bottom left by the sweet Cats logo. Also of note, I threw out the 7 games we played against 200 or worse rated kenpom opponents. To be fair, when looking at the chart you have to weigh winning percentage with the number of games involved in each category.
Efficiency.
Obviously if you win efficiency or points per possession, you win the game. However, the break points for when we won/lost games is pretty crazy. Our offense didn't have to be that great (only 0.95) for us to win at an 81% clip and our defense didn't have to be great (1.16) to win at a 74% clip.
Shooting.
Since shooting is the most weighted of the 4 factors, the fact that winning or losing eFG% was the most consistent factor isn't a big surprise. A defensive eFG% of well above average at 57% was still good enough to win 82% of the time while the offensive break point of 55% led to 85% wins, but only in 13 games. eFG% also had a murky middle with 12 games of 42% to 52% at just over .500.
Turnovers.
Winning TO% played a decent role in winning and losing, but especially on defensive, turnovers had less weight than I anticipated. The data is all over the place with forcing TOs and winning. In the middle from 19% to 22% K-State went 9-3. But K-State also won 4 out of worst 5 games forcing TOs and lost 6 of 7 forcing between 23% and 25%. On offense, the break point of 20% played a larger and more consistent role.
Offensive rebounding.
One of the most debated points for this team this year was our problem rebounding, but when it comes to winning and losing it made little difference. We actually won at a slightly higher rate when we lost OR% and we won all 9 games when the difference in OR% compared to our opponents was -17% or worse. When we gave up an OR% of 32% or worse, we won nearly 80% of the time. Its pretty much the opposite of what we got so used to under Frank.
Free throws.
Free throws played a much larger role than I anticipated, especially when we were better than our opponents. The difference in the break point for offense (25%) and defense (45%) was very large, but both brought 70% or better winning rates when we beat those marks.
2s and 3s.
Granted, 2PT% and 3PT% are closely tied to eFG%, but isolating each still gives some interesting results. Winning 3s and 2s both brought winning percentages of 80% or better while losing them led to losing games at least 2/3 of the time. Defense had more significant winning percentage results as long as we kept opponents under 54% on 2s and under 33% on 3s.
Conclusions.
Consistency in shooting on both ends of the floor is the biggest thing to watch and was the key contributor in why K-State isn't playing this weekend. -27.6% eFG% against Loyola was our worst make this season. I like that we force TOs at the rate we do, but perhaps some efforts could be diverted to other areas. Perhaps some of those chances we take on getting steals leads to more open shots which leads to the eFG% issues? My focus on rebounding would be on the defensive end; if we continue to shoot it well and handle the ball I can handle being a low OR% team on offense. Finally, a push to continue to attack and draw fouls should be an emphasis as winning FT rate was a key contributor to winning games.
Efficiency.
Obviously if you win efficiency or points per possession, you win the game. However, the break points for when we won/lost games is pretty crazy. Our offense didn't have to be that great (only 0.95) for us to win at an 81% clip and our defense didn't have to be great (1.16) to win at a 74% clip.
Shooting.
Since shooting is the most weighted of the 4 factors, the fact that winning or losing eFG% was the most consistent factor isn't a big surprise. A defensive eFG% of well above average at 57% was still good enough to win 82% of the time while the offensive break point of 55% led to 85% wins, but only in 13 games. eFG% also had a murky middle with 12 games of 42% to 52% at just over .500.
Turnovers.
Winning TO% played a decent role in winning and losing, but especially on defensive, turnovers had less weight than I anticipated. The data is all over the place with forcing TOs and winning. In the middle from 19% to 22% K-State went 9-3. But K-State also won 4 out of worst 5 games forcing TOs and lost 6 of 7 forcing between 23% and 25%. On offense, the break point of 20% played a larger and more consistent role.
Offensive rebounding.
One of the most debated points for this team this year was our problem rebounding, but when it comes to winning and losing it made little difference. We actually won at a slightly higher rate when we lost OR% and we won all 9 games when the difference in OR% compared to our opponents was -17% or worse. When we gave up an OR% of 32% or worse, we won nearly 80% of the time. Its pretty much the opposite of what we got so used to under Frank.
Free throws.
Free throws played a much larger role than I anticipated, especially when we were better than our opponents. The difference in the break point for offense (25%) and defense (45%) was very large, but both brought 70% or better winning rates when we beat those marks.
2s and 3s.
Granted, 2PT% and 3PT% are closely tied to eFG%, but isolating each still gives some interesting results. Winning 3s and 2s both brought winning percentages of 80% or better while losing them led to losing games at least 2/3 of the time. Defense had more significant winning percentage results as long as we kept opponents under 54% on 2s and under 33% on 3s.
Conclusions.
Consistency in shooting on both ends of the floor is the biggest thing to watch and was the key contributor in why K-State isn't playing this weekend. -27.6% eFG% against Loyola was our worst make this season. I like that we force TOs at the rate we do, but perhaps some efforts could be diverted to other areas. Perhaps some of those chances we take on getting steals leads to more open shots which leads to the eFG% issues? My focus on rebounding would be on the defensive end; if we continue to shoot it well and handle the ball I can handle being a low OR% team on offense. Finally, a push to continue to attack and draw fouls should be an emphasis as winning FT rate was a key contributor to winning games.
