Good Morning K-State basketball fans,
It's game week. If you aren't @Baller-Status type of excited, you are wrong.
Let me first get this out of the way:
TLDR
Ok good. For those of you that are still with me, I want to take a quick look at where I think the basketball stands after the two exhibition games and leading into tomorrow's opener against NDSU. As you might imagine, I have some questions.
Question #1
Do Mean Gene and HCCK sit behind the NDSU bench on Tuesday night all decked out in Green and Gold and screaming GO BIZZZZZZZON???
Seriously though, NDSU is going to be a very significant opening game test. They were a 16 seed in the NCAA tournament last year before losing to Duke after winning their play-in game. They return 9 of their top 11 scorers including SR Guard Vinnie Shahid who averaged over 13 per game in his first year as at NDSU.
The last image that most K-State fans have of the basketball team is Max Hazzard being uncoverable and shooting away any hopes that the Cats had of improving on the previous year's Elite 8 resuts. Well, get ready ladies and gentlemen, Shahid is almost a clone of Hazzard. He is a tiny guard that simply makes plays with the ball in his hand. He is also a very good high volume three point shooter. He shot 37% on 175 attempts last year.
NDSU also has two other really good high volume shooters in Forward Rocky Kreuser and Guard Jared Sameulson. Kreuser shot 35% on 123 attempts from his stretch 4 position and Samuelson is the best shooter on the team from the 2 guard spot. He made over 46% of his threes on almost 150 attempts.
Ty Eady is the other guy you have to keep a close eye on. He didn't play quite as much as the others, but he did make over 41% of the 87 threes that he took
And oh yeah, you have to keep them off the free throw line. The worst of those guys is Kreuser at 83% with Eady shooting over 90%.
NDSU as a team loves to shoot from deep. They attempted 861 threes last year for an average of almost 25 per game and made 9 per game. For comparison sake, K-State averaged just over 20 attempts from deep per game and made just under 7 per game (6.8).
Question #2:
Can K-State take advantage of increased athleticism and score enough easy baskets to make up for the lack of a proven big time scorer on the offensive end?
It's been pretty universal here and in other season previews that for K-State to get back to the NCAA tournament for a fourth year in a row under Bruce, Cartier Diarra and Xavier Sneed are going to have to take big steps forward on the scoring end. Those guys are going to have to pick up much of the scoring load left by Good Basketball Player Kam, Barry, and Dean. Those three guys scored 1184 of K-State's 2172 points last year.
Just to get back to last year's offensive levels (which weren't very good on the whole), Sneed has to up his average by 4 points per game (Brown). Diarra has to up his average 4.2 points per game (Stokes) and our 4 spot has to come up with 12.9 ppg to replace Dean. After that, we need someone to kick in Sneed's 10.6 and Diarra's 6.8. Those numbers are just to get back to the status quo.
I don't have any questions about Sneed at this point. We know what he is. He is a really good SF that can guard multiple positions and has looked (at least through the two exhibitions) to try and add the dimension of putting the ball on the floor from the wing to get to the basket. If he can get to close to 15 per game, that's a great start. What I never want to see again is Sneed handling the ball to lead the fast break.
I have been one of Diarra's biggest supporters going back to his days at West Florence. But I said then (and after the first two exhibitions, it still holds true so far) that Carti is not going to be able to beat Big 12 guards off the bounce in one on one situations consistently. He does not have a good first step (for a guy as athletic as he is) and his handle is best described as adequate. Carti is best with the ball when he can use his superior size and strength to play "bully ball" with the guy guarding him. He is really good at attacking the paint when he catches the ball on a ball reversal and the defense has to adjust, giving him a little room to get started. It's really why he (and the offense) will be best when he is off the ball instead of being the primary ball handler. Carti has really struggled to find himself so far as a point of focus and I just have this feeling that it's going to take a while for him to settle in.
That brings me to the newcomers, basically by default. At this point, I don't see any of the returnees have that the ability to impact the game from a scoring standpoint enough to make up for the points that were lost. I hope/think Mak will take a step forward. If he can stop putting the ball on the floor in traffic and simply make a couple more shots per game, he can get his average up to double digits simply through volume.
The bottom line is, we need all four new guys to make a significant impact on the scoring end. For this team to be successful, we need both of the new PF's to combine for Dean's 13 ppg. If Stockard can up his average from 2 per game to 5 per game, then Murphy/Gordon can drop that number to 10ppg which should be an attainable goal.
If that happens and DaJuan can be the Dajuan that everybody believes he can be, that makes up for almost all of the scoring that was lost. At that point, if Sloan can give us Carti's almost 7 per game, that really helps.
That's a lot of if's.
You could really tell in the exhibition games that the team had very tired legs. You can tell that they have been going hard to start the year and nobody showed that fatigue more than D. Gordon. I think as the season goes on and practice gets trimmed just a bit, DaJuan could be the player that benefits the most. His entire game is predicated on athleticism and hustle. He has never been and will probably never be a great shooter from the perimeter, but he knows how to play the passing lanes and knows how to score the basketball in a myriad of ways. Once he gets his legs underneath him, I think he can come close to the 8-10 ppg that would be needed.
All of that brings me to David Sloan. I admit, I was a skeptic. I didn't believe that a juco guard whose game was built on offense would be able to step in and make a huge impact for Bruce. I became even more of a skeptic when he showed up 30 pounds over weight and with a broken wrist to start the summer. Sloan still has a ways to go to get his conditioning right and his defense is really, really bad, but I think that can be overcome with how he elevates the play of others around him when he is on the floor. This team needs a PG and it needs one now. I have had my #hope and dreams crushed by SW's unwillingness to put down the pipe. He is literally the perfect player for this team with his ability to run the team from the 1 and defend at a very high level, but the three weeks that he has given to Sloan to start the season simply may be too much for him to overcome. Bruce found a way to hide Good Basketball Player Kam Stokes for four years on the defensive end simply because he needed his shot making ability on the floor on offense. Sloan is probably a better shooter and is by far a better PG in an actual grown man's body. If he can get his weight down another 5-10 pounds and his conditioning right, he can be a 26-28 minute per game guy from the 1 and that would make the ceiling of this team much, much higher.
That brings me to my predictions for the season.
Make no mistake about it, this is a pretty tough non-con. Opening the season with a tournament team in NDSU and then going on the road to UNLV is no picnic. I could easily see a split in the first two.
The next two will be wins which leads to a really tough neutral site game against Pittsburgh. I actually think Pittsburgh wins. Pitt has a chance to be pretty good. They return 3 of their four leading scorers and two of those guys were true freshmen (that K-State really wanted) in McGowens and Toney.
The next three are two stat builders sandwiched around the return game from Marquette. I am going to give K-State the benefit of the doubt that they win that home game and all three of those.
The next four are brutal. Mississippi State and St. Louis at neutral sites, Bruce's Kryptonite in Manhattan and then later Alabama at Alabama in January. I think smart money is a split in those four games.
Just looking at those games, I have us at 8-4 in the non-con. I think the non-con ceiling is probably 11-1 and the floor could be as low as 6-6.
I haven't really delved into the conference schedule as yet, but i think we all know that 10-8 is the correct number if history shows us anything. If 10-8 is the right number and K-State can somehow get to 9-3 in non-con, Bruce will tie Lon for the most consecutive NCAA tournament trips at K-State with four in a row.
Have a great week!
It's game week. If you aren't @Baller-Status type of excited, you are wrong.
Let me first get this out of the way:
TLDR
Ok good. For those of you that are still with me, I want to take a quick look at where I think the basketball stands after the two exhibition games and leading into tomorrow's opener against NDSU. As you might imagine, I have some questions.
Question #1
Do Mean Gene and HCCK sit behind the NDSU bench on Tuesday night all decked out in Green and Gold and screaming GO BIZZZZZZZON???
Seriously though, NDSU is going to be a very significant opening game test. They were a 16 seed in the NCAA tournament last year before losing to Duke after winning their play-in game. They return 9 of their top 11 scorers including SR Guard Vinnie Shahid who averaged over 13 per game in his first year as at NDSU.
The last image that most K-State fans have of the basketball team is Max Hazzard being uncoverable and shooting away any hopes that the Cats had of improving on the previous year's Elite 8 resuts. Well, get ready ladies and gentlemen, Shahid is almost a clone of Hazzard. He is a tiny guard that simply makes plays with the ball in his hand. He is also a very good high volume three point shooter. He shot 37% on 175 attempts last year.
NDSU also has two other really good high volume shooters in Forward Rocky Kreuser and Guard Jared Sameulson. Kreuser shot 35% on 123 attempts from his stretch 4 position and Samuelson is the best shooter on the team from the 2 guard spot. He made over 46% of his threes on almost 150 attempts.
Ty Eady is the other guy you have to keep a close eye on. He didn't play quite as much as the others, but he did make over 41% of the 87 threes that he took
And oh yeah, you have to keep them off the free throw line. The worst of those guys is Kreuser at 83% with Eady shooting over 90%.
NDSU as a team loves to shoot from deep. They attempted 861 threes last year for an average of almost 25 per game and made 9 per game. For comparison sake, K-State averaged just over 20 attempts from deep per game and made just under 7 per game (6.8).
Question #2:
Can K-State take advantage of increased athleticism and score enough easy baskets to make up for the lack of a proven big time scorer on the offensive end?
It's been pretty universal here and in other season previews that for K-State to get back to the NCAA tournament for a fourth year in a row under Bruce, Cartier Diarra and Xavier Sneed are going to have to take big steps forward on the scoring end. Those guys are going to have to pick up much of the scoring load left by Good Basketball Player Kam, Barry, and Dean. Those three guys scored 1184 of K-State's 2172 points last year.
Just to get back to last year's offensive levels (which weren't very good on the whole), Sneed has to up his average by 4 points per game (Brown). Diarra has to up his average 4.2 points per game (Stokes) and our 4 spot has to come up with 12.9 ppg to replace Dean. After that, we need someone to kick in Sneed's 10.6 and Diarra's 6.8. Those numbers are just to get back to the status quo.
I don't have any questions about Sneed at this point. We know what he is. He is a really good SF that can guard multiple positions and has looked (at least through the two exhibitions) to try and add the dimension of putting the ball on the floor from the wing to get to the basket. If he can get to close to 15 per game, that's a great start. What I never want to see again is Sneed handling the ball to lead the fast break.
I have been one of Diarra's biggest supporters going back to his days at West Florence. But I said then (and after the first two exhibitions, it still holds true so far) that Carti is not going to be able to beat Big 12 guards off the bounce in one on one situations consistently. He does not have a good first step (for a guy as athletic as he is) and his handle is best described as adequate. Carti is best with the ball when he can use his superior size and strength to play "bully ball" with the guy guarding him. He is really good at attacking the paint when he catches the ball on a ball reversal and the defense has to adjust, giving him a little room to get started. It's really why he (and the offense) will be best when he is off the ball instead of being the primary ball handler. Carti has really struggled to find himself so far as a point of focus and I just have this feeling that it's going to take a while for him to settle in.
That brings me to the newcomers, basically by default. At this point, I don't see any of the returnees have that the ability to impact the game from a scoring standpoint enough to make up for the points that were lost. I hope/think Mak will take a step forward. If he can stop putting the ball on the floor in traffic and simply make a couple more shots per game, he can get his average up to double digits simply through volume.
The bottom line is, we need all four new guys to make a significant impact on the scoring end. For this team to be successful, we need both of the new PF's to combine for Dean's 13 ppg. If Stockard can up his average from 2 per game to 5 per game, then Murphy/Gordon can drop that number to 10ppg which should be an attainable goal.
If that happens and DaJuan can be the Dajuan that everybody believes he can be, that makes up for almost all of the scoring that was lost. At that point, if Sloan can give us Carti's almost 7 per game, that really helps.
That's a lot of if's.
You could really tell in the exhibition games that the team had very tired legs. You can tell that they have been going hard to start the year and nobody showed that fatigue more than D. Gordon. I think as the season goes on and practice gets trimmed just a bit, DaJuan could be the player that benefits the most. His entire game is predicated on athleticism and hustle. He has never been and will probably never be a great shooter from the perimeter, but he knows how to play the passing lanes and knows how to score the basketball in a myriad of ways. Once he gets his legs underneath him, I think he can come close to the 8-10 ppg that would be needed.
All of that brings me to David Sloan. I admit, I was a skeptic. I didn't believe that a juco guard whose game was built on offense would be able to step in and make a huge impact for Bruce. I became even more of a skeptic when he showed up 30 pounds over weight and with a broken wrist to start the summer. Sloan still has a ways to go to get his conditioning right and his defense is really, really bad, but I think that can be overcome with how he elevates the play of others around him when he is on the floor. This team needs a PG and it needs one now. I have had my #hope and dreams crushed by SW's unwillingness to put down the pipe. He is literally the perfect player for this team with his ability to run the team from the 1 and defend at a very high level, but the three weeks that he has given to Sloan to start the season simply may be too much for him to overcome. Bruce found a way to hide Good Basketball Player Kam Stokes for four years on the defensive end simply because he needed his shot making ability on the floor on offense. Sloan is probably a better shooter and is by far a better PG in an actual grown man's body. If he can get his weight down another 5-10 pounds and his conditioning right, he can be a 26-28 minute per game guy from the 1 and that would make the ceiling of this team much, much higher.
That brings me to my predictions for the season.
Make no mistake about it, this is a pretty tough non-con. Opening the season with a tournament team in NDSU and then going on the road to UNLV is no picnic. I could easily see a split in the first two.
The next two will be wins which leads to a really tough neutral site game against Pittsburgh. I actually think Pittsburgh wins. Pitt has a chance to be pretty good. They return 3 of their four leading scorers and two of those guys were true freshmen (that K-State really wanted) in McGowens and Toney.
The next three are two stat builders sandwiched around the return game from Marquette. I am going to give K-State the benefit of the doubt that they win that home game and all three of those.
The next four are brutal. Mississippi State and St. Louis at neutral sites, Bruce's Kryptonite in Manhattan and then later Alabama at Alabama in January. I think smart money is a split in those four games.
Just looking at those games, I have us at 8-4 in the non-con. I think the non-con ceiling is probably 11-1 and the floor could be as low as 6-6.
I haven't really delved into the conference schedule as yet, but i think we all know that 10-8 is the correct number if history shows us anything. If 10-8 is the right number and K-State can somehow get to 9-3 in non-con, Bruce will tie Lon for the most consecutive NCAA tournament trips at K-State with four in a row.
Have a great week!
