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Football Latest realignment notes/rumors/speculation, etc (7/28/2021)

D

Derek Young

Guest
1) I continue to hear and believe that the most likely outcome is the eight remaining together and adding four more teams.

2) You won't hear much of anything on the record from the schools as they will be careful with what they say and are all being advised by legal counsel at this point to ensure that they receive the largest possible sum in the settlement with Texas and Oklahoma. I anticipate and fully expect this to be the last season for the Sooners and Longhorns in the Big 12. And if a judge or court sees it the way the Big 12 wants them to, they may have to dole out more than just the 80 million being reported. Texas and Oklahoma will continue to believe that they won't even have to pay out as much as the 80 million being reported. There will be a standoff, undoubtedly.

3) I have recently heard about BYU being a potential option. I hadn't been hearing about them, previously. I've also heard that TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech would be opposed to having Houston join a new Big 12. Obviously because they don't want to uplift another program in the state. In a hypothetical world where the P12 is adding teams, Tech also wouldn't want to be joined by Houston in that adventure. That's not just the Tech poster from yesterday evening sharing that, for what its worth.

4) In the last 48 hours, I've heard more and more chatter about Kansas State working closely with Oklahoma State and Texas Tech. And from different corners of things, too, so I do not believe that is just a rumor. Obviously that would be with the idea of perhaps joining the P12. However, as suggested earlier, I do not think the P12 is in a hurry to add teams. And quite frankly, I've been told that adding teams in the central time zone wouldn't hurt their payout, but that it might not increase payout per member, either, and quite simply might be a wash. It would then come down to if USC wanted it at the end of the day.

5) In terms of desirability rankings, while they have had little success on the football field recently, it does sound like teams are really wanting to latch onto Texas Tech in this, knowing that they have the traits that would be most appealing to another league. They have the largest enrollment of the remaining teams by far, are in a city with large population compared to others (outside of TCU but they are a religious, private institution with low enrollment), and Tech could provide some recruiting footprint in TX and they are considerably more of a player in the DFW market than I realized.

6) In addition to the P12 not really having motivation to add, I'm told by a source inside the Big Ten that he is seeing zero desire from the league to expand, even in regard to P12 schools. Now that could change in a flash, but clearly FOX wants it more than the Big Ten does right now and how that shakes out is a mystery.

7) This is the final point but I did have a source tied to a team that would perhaps be among those considered for expansion by the new Big 12 speak and reach out to me last night. They characterized that school as "confused", stating that they'll have to determine if it is worth paying an eight-figure exit fee to join a league that hasn't been stable in decades where there's no guarantee of a decisively bigger TV deal.
 
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