The Texas Bowl is finally here and LSU appears to be ready to play, even though they will have a very depleted roster. As of December 24th they were down to 51 scholarship players, then their leading rusher opted out on Friday, and then they released their depth chart for the game on Sunday and several more names were missing. Regardless the game looks more like it is going to be played than it did even a week ago. LSU’s best wins this season came against Texas A&M, Mississippi State, and Florida. Every loss came to a team ranked in the top 35 in the metrics, including a 3 point loss to Arkansas, a 6 point loss to Alabama, and a 5 point loss to Auburn.
The SP+ is Bill Connelly’s metric, the FEI is from Brian Fremeau, and the F+ combines the two. K-State is similarly ranked in each while the Tigers have a pretty wide split between the 2. The Cats are pegged as the better team in each, though the 2 squads are much closer in the FEI. The SP+ would put K-State as nearly a 6 point favorite on a neutral field while the FEI would be around a 1 point spread in favor of the Cats.
K-State Offense vs LSU Defense
The K-State offensive rankings and LSU defensive rankings are similar in both metrics with the combined F+ metric putting both units at #37 in the country for a pretty even match up. However, K-State scores 2.53 points per drive on the year while the Tigers allow 2.25 which favors the Cats. LSU’s defense faced offenses with an average rank of #36 in the F+ metric and a median of #24. K-State’s offense faced defenses with an average rank of #67 with a median of #63. The argument can be made that LSU faced a much tougher schedule, especially the quality of the offenses. That may have contributed to the struggles they had, but they also will have quite a few key defenders out for the game.
The per games numbers in the chart show the value of focusing on metrics and other stats that can account for pace, K-State was one of the slowest teams in the country and the game stats reflect that. In terms of per play stats, K-State is above average in yards per play at #40, but the LSU defense is similar ranking #47. The Cats are #39 in yards per carry, but again LSU’s defense ranks #44 on defense. However, K-State is #30 in yards per attempt compared to LSU at #53 and more importantly K-State ranks #55 in pass efficiency compared to #92 for LSU. No doubt K-State will need to run the ball well to win this game, but a healthy Skylar Thompson and a good passing game from K-State could be a key for K-State’s offense in this one. Finally, the Cats are only average in redzone offense, but the LSU defense is really bad, particularly giving up TDs. What K-State does when it gets inside the 20 will be another big factor to watch in this game, especially since FG kicking has been up and down this season.
One notable mention about the LSU defense is that they did change up their scheme about 2/3 through the season, switching from a 4-3 base to a 3-4 base. That switch did pay off pretty well as the defense improved to an average points per drive allowed of 1.55 (vs Alabama, Arkansas, and Texas A&M) compared to 3.13 (vs UCLA, Miss State, Auburn, Kentucky, Florida, and Ole Miss) while running the even front. They also only allowed 4.43 yards per play and 32.6% of the yardage available in those games compared to 6.81 yards per play and 58.0% of the yards available before the change.
I will give a more thorough overview of the LSU defense in another post featuring time stamped YouTube clips to watch from their final 5 games. I watched extended highlight clips of each of their final 5 SEC games and selected both good and bad plays to give you a glimpse of what you can expect to see from the Tigers on Tuesday night.
LSU Defensive Personnel
The red section at the bottom features key defenders for LSU that are either opt outs, injured, or not listed on their updated depth chart. As you can see there are key players missing notably top 2 LBs Damone Clark and Micah Baskerville, defensive tackle Neil Farrell, and defensive backs Dwight McGlothern, Cameron Lewis, and Cordale Flott. There are still plenty of playmakers on the defensive side, especially up front. BJ Ojulari, who primarily played the stand up OLB/DE spot late in the season is particularly disruptive along with the more traditional defensive end Soni Fonua. Inside Jaquelin Roy and Maason Smith are both very good, even without the talented Neil Farrell. However, the linebacking core and secondary are depleted, Jay Ward is solid from his free safety spot. Mike Jones and Greg Penn have big holes to fill at LB and Pig Cage is the starter a nickel after playing 1 game this season.
K-State Defense vs the LSU Offense
K-State appears to have a significant advantage on defense that is even more magnified with LSU not having their starting QB and best RB for the Texas Bowl. The LSU offense faced defenses with an average rank of #41 in the metrics and a median of #31. K-State’s defense faced offenses that averaged #49 with a median of #42.
K-State’s defense finished in the top 30 in all metrics and ranked #20 in the F+ combined metric. LSU’s offense is only #59 in the combined metric, swinging from a #45 metric in the FEI to #68 in the SP+. LSU plays at an average pace and is below average in every per play stat. The Tigers only rank #94 in yards per play, ##116 in yards per rush, and #71 in yards per attempt. K-State’s defense is #44, #30, and #60 respectively. Pass efficiency is the only area you can make a case for LSU being even with K-State, ranking #62 compared to #70 for the Wildcat defense. K-State is also even with the Tigers in redzone and 3rd down defense. K-State holds a solid advantage in points per drive allowed, ranking #40 compared to #74 for the LSU offense. LSU was pretty balanced on offense, running it 48.6% of the time and throwing it 51.4%. It will be interesting to see if that changes much with the QB and RB experience for the Tigers going into the game.
LSU’s offense is a spread based, though they typically will have an H back in the game. They like to utilize their core of big receivers, all of their 2 deep are 6-0 or bigger. They will be in 1 back gun most of the time and in short yardage will bring in a 6th offensive lineman, something we don’t typically see from Big 12 teams.
I will give a more thorough overview of the LSU offense in another post featuring time stamped YouTube clips to watch from their final 5 games. I watched extended highlight clips of each of their final 5 SEC games and selected plays sorted by scheme to give you a glimpse of what you can expect to see from the Tigers on Tuesday night.
LSU Offensive Personnel - Quarterback
Garrett Nussmeier did get the exemption to play, which does give the Tigers a legitimate threat at QB, though he isn’t very experienced. Nussmeier played the majority of the game in LSU’s loss to Arkansas after Johnson exited during the 2nd drive. He also played much of the 2nd half vs Ole Miss, but after the Tigers were down 31-7. Arkansas was LSU’s worse offensive game this season (under 1.00 points per drive) and Nussmeier’s lower completion percentage, yards per attempt, and 2 TDs compared to 2 INTs show clearly that he isn’t at Johnson’s level yet. LSU doesn’t use the QB in the run game much, so that will be thing Klanderman and staff won’t have to focus on.
LSU Offensive Personnel - Running Backs
Tyrion Davis-Price made the decision to opt out of the game on Friday, which also should make defending the Tigers easier on Monday night. Davis-Price is a big strong runner and gained the bulk of the rushing yards for a below average Tiger running game. A trio of younger backs will be in the mix in the bowl game, led by Corey Kiner and his 271 yards this season. Also note that LSU does not use receivers much on sweeps in the running game as there were only 3 carries this season.
LSU Offensive Personnel - Receivers and Tight Ends
The wide receiver core is the strength of the LSU offense going into this game and their big core of receivers will provide a challenge for K-State. Kayshon Boutte was lost to injury halfway through the season and still led the Tigers in yards while Palmer and Smith are opt outs transferring out of the program. Jenkins, Nabers, and Thomas are still a formidable trio and Bech is more of a 4th big WR than a TE. The 2 bigger TEs Mashburn and Taylor are in the game a lot, especially at an H back spot, but they combined for only 9 catches. Also note that backs were used sparingly in the LSU passing game this season.
LSU Offensive Personnel - Offensive Line
This just shows the starters on the depth chart, but notice that LSU is getting back a couple of experienced players that missed time this season, plus they are huge across the front.
LSU vs KSU Special Teams
By the metrics, the special teams are pretty even with both units varying widely between the SP+ and FEI. K-State has the advantage in starting field position on both offense and defense, and has the biggest advantage with their KO return unit. LSU has the better kicker, K-State has a punting advantage. K-State's coverage units both ranked poorly, but fortunately LSU isn't great with either return unit.
The SP+ is Bill Connelly’s metric, the FEI is from Brian Fremeau, and the F+ combines the two. K-State is similarly ranked in each while the Tigers have a pretty wide split between the 2. The Cats are pegged as the better team in each, though the 2 squads are much closer in the FEI. The SP+ would put K-State as nearly a 6 point favorite on a neutral field while the FEI would be around a 1 point spread in favor of the Cats.
K-State Offense vs LSU Defense
The K-State offensive rankings and LSU defensive rankings are similar in both metrics with the combined F+ metric putting both units at #37 in the country for a pretty even match up. However, K-State scores 2.53 points per drive on the year while the Tigers allow 2.25 which favors the Cats. LSU’s defense faced offenses with an average rank of #36 in the F+ metric and a median of #24. K-State’s offense faced defenses with an average rank of #67 with a median of #63. The argument can be made that LSU faced a much tougher schedule, especially the quality of the offenses. That may have contributed to the struggles they had, but they also will have quite a few key defenders out for the game.
The per games numbers in the chart show the value of focusing on metrics and other stats that can account for pace, K-State was one of the slowest teams in the country and the game stats reflect that. In terms of per play stats, K-State is above average in yards per play at #40, but the LSU defense is similar ranking #47. The Cats are #39 in yards per carry, but again LSU’s defense ranks #44 on defense. However, K-State is #30 in yards per attempt compared to LSU at #53 and more importantly K-State ranks #55 in pass efficiency compared to #92 for LSU. No doubt K-State will need to run the ball well to win this game, but a healthy Skylar Thompson and a good passing game from K-State could be a key for K-State’s offense in this one. Finally, the Cats are only average in redzone offense, but the LSU defense is really bad, particularly giving up TDs. What K-State does when it gets inside the 20 will be another big factor to watch in this game, especially since FG kicking has been up and down this season.
One notable mention about the LSU defense is that they did change up their scheme about 2/3 through the season, switching from a 4-3 base to a 3-4 base. That switch did pay off pretty well as the defense improved to an average points per drive allowed of 1.55 (vs Alabama, Arkansas, and Texas A&M) compared to 3.13 (vs UCLA, Miss State, Auburn, Kentucky, Florida, and Ole Miss) while running the even front. They also only allowed 4.43 yards per play and 32.6% of the yardage available in those games compared to 6.81 yards per play and 58.0% of the yards available before the change.
I will give a more thorough overview of the LSU defense in another post featuring time stamped YouTube clips to watch from their final 5 games. I watched extended highlight clips of each of their final 5 SEC games and selected both good and bad plays to give you a glimpse of what you can expect to see from the Tigers on Tuesday night.
LSU Defensive Personnel
The red section at the bottom features key defenders for LSU that are either opt outs, injured, or not listed on their updated depth chart. As you can see there are key players missing notably top 2 LBs Damone Clark and Micah Baskerville, defensive tackle Neil Farrell, and defensive backs Dwight McGlothern, Cameron Lewis, and Cordale Flott. There are still plenty of playmakers on the defensive side, especially up front. BJ Ojulari, who primarily played the stand up OLB/DE spot late in the season is particularly disruptive along with the more traditional defensive end Soni Fonua. Inside Jaquelin Roy and Maason Smith are both very good, even without the talented Neil Farrell. However, the linebacking core and secondary are depleted, Jay Ward is solid from his free safety spot. Mike Jones and Greg Penn have big holes to fill at LB and Pig Cage is the starter a nickel after playing 1 game this season.
K-State Defense vs the LSU Offense
K-State appears to have a significant advantage on defense that is even more magnified with LSU not having their starting QB and best RB for the Texas Bowl. The LSU offense faced defenses with an average rank of #41 in the metrics and a median of #31. K-State’s defense faced offenses that averaged #49 with a median of #42.
K-State’s defense finished in the top 30 in all metrics and ranked #20 in the F+ combined metric. LSU’s offense is only #59 in the combined metric, swinging from a #45 metric in the FEI to #68 in the SP+. LSU plays at an average pace and is below average in every per play stat. The Tigers only rank #94 in yards per play, ##116 in yards per rush, and #71 in yards per attempt. K-State’s defense is #44, #30, and #60 respectively. Pass efficiency is the only area you can make a case for LSU being even with K-State, ranking #62 compared to #70 for the Wildcat defense. K-State is also even with the Tigers in redzone and 3rd down defense. K-State holds a solid advantage in points per drive allowed, ranking #40 compared to #74 for the LSU offense. LSU was pretty balanced on offense, running it 48.6% of the time and throwing it 51.4%. It will be interesting to see if that changes much with the QB and RB experience for the Tigers going into the game.
LSU’s offense is a spread based, though they typically will have an H back in the game. They like to utilize their core of big receivers, all of their 2 deep are 6-0 or bigger. They will be in 1 back gun most of the time and in short yardage will bring in a 6th offensive lineman, something we don’t typically see from Big 12 teams.
I will give a more thorough overview of the LSU offense in another post featuring time stamped YouTube clips to watch from their final 5 games. I watched extended highlight clips of each of their final 5 SEC games and selected plays sorted by scheme to give you a glimpse of what you can expect to see from the Tigers on Tuesday night.
LSU Offensive Personnel - Quarterback
Garrett Nussmeier did get the exemption to play, which does give the Tigers a legitimate threat at QB, though he isn’t very experienced. Nussmeier played the majority of the game in LSU’s loss to Arkansas after Johnson exited during the 2nd drive. He also played much of the 2nd half vs Ole Miss, but after the Tigers were down 31-7. Arkansas was LSU’s worse offensive game this season (under 1.00 points per drive) and Nussmeier’s lower completion percentage, yards per attempt, and 2 TDs compared to 2 INTs show clearly that he isn’t at Johnson’s level yet. LSU doesn’t use the QB in the run game much, so that will be thing Klanderman and staff won’t have to focus on.
LSU Offensive Personnel - Running Backs
Tyrion Davis-Price made the decision to opt out of the game on Friday, which also should make defending the Tigers easier on Monday night. Davis-Price is a big strong runner and gained the bulk of the rushing yards for a below average Tiger running game. A trio of younger backs will be in the mix in the bowl game, led by Corey Kiner and his 271 yards this season. Also note that LSU does not use receivers much on sweeps in the running game as there were only 3 carries this season.
LSU Offensive Personnel - Receivers and Tight Ends
The wide receiver core is the strength of the LSU offense going into this game and their big core of receivers will provide a challenge for K-State. Kayshon Boutte was lost to injury halfway through the season and still led the Tigers in yards while Palmer and Smith are opt outs transferring out of the program. Jenkins, Nabers, and Thomas are still a formidable trio and Bech is more of a 4th big WR than a TE. The 2 bigger TEs Mashburn and Taylor are in the game a lot, especially at an H back spot, but they combined for only 9 catches. Also note that backs were used sparingly in the LSU passing game this season.
LSU Offensive Personnel - Offensive Line
This just shows the starters on the depth chart, but notice that LSU is getting back a couple of experienced players that missed time this season, plus they are huge across the front.
LSU vs KSU Special Teams
By the metrics, the special teams are pretty even with both units varying widely between the SP+ and FEI. K-State has the advantage in starting field position on both offense and defense, and has the biggest advantage with their KO return unit. LSU has the better kicker, K-State has a punting advantage. K-State's coverage units both ranked poorly, but fortunately LSU isn't great with either return unit.
