D
Derek Young
Guest
1) Clearly, Texas and OU have all but said they're leaving. They're leaving.
2) The rest is still to be determined and I think being digested by all the schools and the rest of the leagues, too. Have there been conversations between leagues and institutions? Yes. Does that include Kansas State? Yes.
3) I did get a whiff of something for the first time this morning from a source that suggested there could be movement towards four leagues that were 16 members apiece. In that scenario, West Virginia would head for the ACC( not sure with who else), KU and Iowa State would wander to the Big Ten, and the P12 would choose Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Kansas State and TCU. Obviously, that would mean the only current Big 12 school without a seat at the table is Baylor.
4) Do I believe the above scenario? It's tough to really believe it because of all the moving parts and conflicts associated with such a transformation. What other team does the ACC land with WVU? Notre Dame is not motivated to join a league. The 12-team playoff still allows them a seat at the table and the playoff even pays them media revenue each year whether they advance or not. Can the Big Ten really stomach adding Iowa State? Yes, they're AAU but not a whole lot else matches their criteria and pisses off other member schools in the meanwhile. Does the P12 surrender their academic profile, political indifferences to add those four? Do they drop the religious line? That's a lot of stuff that has to be worked out, so at the very least, it'll take some time and we're going to be discussing this for a long time.
5) Furthermore, what probably makes me doubt point #3 the most, even more so than anything in point #4, is that there's nothing out there that would suggest that those leagues would be motivated to expand. None of those teams that are available are going to entice a TV provider enough to increase the payout per school, let's be honest. So, why would they do it? In some cases, the payouts could be less per member if adding all of those? As I've shared before, there's about one and a half leagues that COULD be motivated. The P12 probably needs to expand their footprint to drive more viewership and audience for when they negotiate their next television deal which they probably are in the midst of doing or are about to do. Adding the central time zone helps, clearly. Not for the schools there, but to get USC, UCLA, Oregon, Washington, etc in better time slots on a regular basis. The ACC is locked in a television deal that they can't get out of until 2036, and over time, will be pretty untenable and inferior to the other three leagues. If they want to change that, they need to make a splash to convince the network to enhance it. The problem, of course, is that Notre Dame is probably the only one that can do that for them and they probably won't budge. So, again what would motivate or stipulate these leagues to expand to 16? The only things I can think of would be that the television networks and providers insist on it and make all the television deals more lucrative for it as an agreement. Is that happening? No idea. But would speculate that'd be the case if the leagues were truly compelled to add the likes of Iowa State in order to just get to 16.
6) So, we're in a stalemate and probably is dependent on how motivated the P12 is to expand. What the chatter has been after I've made some calls today, as a result of last night's meeting, is that there was a stated wish for the remaining eight schools to stick together but also an understanding that self-preservation was the priority, too.
2) The rest is still to be determined and I think being digested by all the schools and the rest of the leagues, too. Have there been conversations between leagues and institutions? Yes. Does that include Kansas State? Yes.
3) I did get a whiff of something for the first time this morning from a source that suggested there could be movement towards four leagues that were 16 members apiece. In that scenario, West Virginia would head for the ACC( not sure with who else), KU and Iowa State would wander to the Big Ten, and the P12 would choose Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Kansas State and TCU. Obviously, that would mean the only current Big 12 school without a seat at the table is Baylor.
4) Do I believe the above scenario? It's tough to really believe it because of all the moving parts and conflicts associated with such a transformation. What other team does the ACC land with WVU? Notre Dame is not motivated to join a league. The 12-team playoff still allows them a seat at the table and the playoff even pays them media revenue each year whether they advance or not. Can the Big Ten really stomach adding Iowa State? Yes, they're AAU but not a whole lot else matches their criteria and pisses off other member schools in the meanwhile. Does the P12 surrender their academic profile, political indifferences to add those four? Do they drop the religious line? That's a lot of stuff that has to be worked out, so at the very least, it'll take some time and we're going to be discussing this for a long time.
5) Furthermore, what probably makes me doubt point #3 the most, even more so than anything in point #4, is that there's nothing out there that would suggest that those leagues would be motivated to expand. None of those teams that are available are going to entice a TV provider enough to increase the payout per school, let's be honest. So, why would they do it? In some cases, the payouts could be less per member if adding all of those? As I've shared before, there's about one and a half leagues that COULD be motivated. The P12 probably needs to expand their footprint to drive more viewership and audience for when they negotiate their next television deal which they probably are in the midst of doing or are about to do. Adding the central time zone helps, clearly. Not for the schools there, but to get USC, UCLA, Oregon, Washington, etc in better time slots on a regular basis. The ACC is locked in a television deal that they can't get out of until 2036, and over time, will be pretty untenable and inferior to the other three leagues. If they want to change that, they need to make a splash to convince the network to enhance it. The problem, of course, is that Notre Dame is probably the only one that can do that for them and they probably won't budge. So, again what would motivate or stipulate these leagues to expand to 16? The only things I can think of would be that the television networks and providers insist on it and make all the television deals more lucrative for it as an agreement. Is that happening? No idea. But would speculate that'd be the case if the leagues were truly compelled to add the likes of Iowa State in order to just get to 16.
6) So, we're in a stalemate and probably is dependent on how motivated the P12 is to expand. What the chatter has been after I've made some calls today, as a result of last night's meeting, is that there was a stated wish for the remaining eight schools to stick together but also an understanding that self-preservation was the priority, too.
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