Why the game against OSU likely determines who plays in Arlington

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I placed the league into three tiers.
Top--TCU, OSU, KSU, Texas
Middle--Baylor, OU, Tech
Lower--KU, ISU, WV
Assuming that there is a 1/3 chance of beating a team one category above. Less than 20% for beating a team 2 categories above. Here is how the standings for the top tier teams will likely end up.

TCU--Remaining games--Texas, Baylor, Tech, ISU, WV Should have a 7-2 or 8-1 record and tie breakers with OSU and KSU. Almost a lock for Arlington.
OSU--Remaining games--KSU, OU, KU, ISU, WV. Easiest remaining schedule. Should have a 7-2 or 6-3 record. (6.57)
KSU--Remaining games--OSU, Texas, Baylor, KU, Wv Should also be looking at a 7-2 or 6-3 record (6.27)
Texas--Remaining games--TCU, KSU, Baylor, KU Should a 6-3 or 5-4 record (5.47)

If OSU wins this weekend the Championship Game is likely set.

If KSU wins this weekend, KSU becomes the favorite and should have a 7-2 or 6-3 record (6.77). Meanwhile, OSU also looking at a 7-2 or 6-3 record (6.07). What is key here is that KSU has the tie breaker over OSU.

Texas MUST have KSU beat OSU to maintain their chance of making Arlington.

 

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