Part 2 of a series. I'll cover defensive numbers later this week. Much of this I talked about with @scottwildcat on the Boscoe's Boys that was posted Tuesday morning.
Before jumping into some traits we can see from the offense based on the numbers, I want to touch on pace. I thought it was funny that Coach Tang mentioned that his staff told him not to mention pace or culture in his opening press conference because all coaches seem to do that. He handled that well. Pace will come into play though and it’s a bit hard to say what we’ll see at K-State because Baylor has fluctuated through the years, though the trend has been to play slower. Baylor went through a very slow period in terms of average possession length on offense, ranking #242 or worse from 2014 to 2020. However, the last 2 years they sped up to #140 and #108 and before 2014 they were in the top 100 for 2 seasons in a row. The average possessions per game doesn’t quite correlate with offensive possession length because we must also factor in defensive possession length. The Baylor defense has been more consistent in forcing long possessions by opponents, ranking #238 over the 13 seasons the stat is available on kenpom. Opponents were only in the top 200 in possession length twice in that span. When we look at possessions per game, Baylor has been slower than average more often than not during the last 19 years. The average pace rank for the last 15 seasons is #215 and for a stretch from 2014 to 2020 the average was #290 with no season ranked in the top 240. Baylor did play slightly faster than average from 2007 to 2013 with 2 seasons in the top 100 in pace during that stretch. By comparison, the past decade K-State averaged a rank of #275 and #241 in average possession length on offense.
Offensive efficiency
Baylor’s teams got their break into success with really good offenses. Drew’s 2008 team reached the NCAA tournament with a top 20 offense, finishing the season ranked #19. Since then, efficient offense has been a Baylor staple with an average rank of #23 over the last 15 seasons. The Bears have had a top 25 offense in 13 of the last 15 seasons and the last 2 years they ranked in the top 10; finishing #2 in 2021 and #9 this past season. From 2008 to 2016 the Bears were top 20 in offensive efficiency 8 times in 9 seasons. K-State has had 2 top 25 offenses in the last 15 seasons, #15 in 2010 and #23 in 2013. The average for a Bruce offense was #105 and last season the Cats finished at #58.
Offensive rebounding is the key
The most consistent factor in Baylor’s offense has been offensive rebounding. Every season for the last 9 the Bears have finished in the top 10 nationally in offensive rebounding rate. The flip happened during the 2011 season when the Bears finished #21, also the first Elite 8 for Baylor under Drew. At K-State we got used to aggressively hitting the offensive glass under Frank, when the Cats had top 10 oboarding teams every season. Bruce only had 2 teams finish in the top 20, 2013 and 2016. The Cats were #275 last season and were outside the top 100 in each of the last 6 seasons.
Solid shooting teams
Baylor teams have been pretty good shooting the ball, averaging #82 over the last 15 seasons in eFG%. The Baylor title team was a top 10 eFG% team, but then 4 teams in 6 seasons from 2015 to 2020 ranked outside the top 100. When Baylor has a top 80 eFG% team, they have managed a pair of 1 seeds and three 3 seeds in the NCAA tournament.
2 point shooting has been varied for Baylor with top 50 finishes the last 2 seasons. Before that there were 6 finishes outside the top 120 over the course of 7 seasons. At K-State we’ve had 2 top 100 2PT% seasons in the last 15 seasons. Under Frank his first season with Beasley and Walker and for Bruce 2017 and 2018. The average 2PT% in the last 15 seasons at K-State was #178 compared to #102 at Baylor in the same timespan.
3 point shooting has also been varied for the Bears. In their national title season, Baylor was the best 3PT% team nationally and hit over 40%, but they also had 4 seasons in 6 years ranking between 130-185. Still, they have been mostly good, ranking #87 over the last 15 seasons and 6 of the last 13 seasons they finished in the top 50. K-State averaged #208 in the last decade. The Cats finished #107 last year and were #75 in Bruce’s first season at K-State.
Baylor’s teams were never overly heavy on their rate of taking 3s, averaging #186 in 3 point rate over the last decade which is just below average. Drew’s early teams took a lot of 3s, ranking in the top 100 during 5 of his first 6 season, but none have been in the top 100 since then. Bruce’s teams were top 100 the last 2 seasons, but K-State has averaged a similar rate for taking 3s compared to Baylor over the last 15 seasons.
Average free throw rate
Baylor has never been great at getting to the FT line, finishing in the top 60 only twice in 2014 and 2011. The last 6 seasons they averaged ranking #230 with no season in the top 200. Bruce had a 3 year run in the top 40, but the last 5 years averaged at #200 nationally in FT rate. Frank’s teams were consistently in the top 50 at getting to the FT line. Baylor has been just above average at making FTs, ranking #153 over the last 15 seasons.
Above average assist rate
A feature for Bruce teams has been ranking high in assist rate (assists to made FGs) averaging nearly a top 50 ranking during his time here, though last season was the worst in his tenure finishing at #160. Baylor was Top 50 5 of the last 9 seasons with an average rank of #67 during that time.
Below average taking care of the ball
The Bears haven’t been great at taking care of the ball with a TO rate average of #166 the last 15 seasons. The 2020 and 2021 seasons were both top 100, but the Bears were 200 or worse the previous 5 seasons. K-State has generally been below average taking care of the ball the last 15 years ranking near #200 nationally. However, last year’s team was pretty good and finished at #71 nationally in TO rate.
Here is a full chart of Baylor's kenpom rankings for each stat over the Drew/Tang era. The green/yellow/red color chart based on a scale to 350 give you a good glimpse of what Baylor did well, where they average, and what they did poorly on a national scale.
Before jumping into some traits we can see from the offense based on the numbers, I want to touch on pace. I thought it was funny that Coach Tang mentioned that his staff told him not to mention pace or culture in his opening press conference because all coaches seem to do that. He handled that well. Pace will come into play though and it’s a bit hard to say what we’ll see at K-State because Baylor has fluctuated through the years, though the trend has been to play slower. Baylor went through a very slow period in terms of average possession length on offense, ranking #242 or worse from 2014 to 2020. However, the last 2 years they sped up to #140 and #108 and before 2014 they were in the top 100 for 2 seasons in a row. The average possessions per game doesn’t quite correlate with offensive possession length because we must also factor in defensive possession length. The Baylor defense has been more consistent in forcing long possessions by opponents, ranking #238 over the 13 seasons the stat is available on kenpom. Opponents were only in the top 200 in possession length twice in that span. When we look at possessions per game, Baylor has been slower than average more often than not during the last 19 years. The average pace rank for the last 15 seasons is #215 and for a stretch from 2014 to 2020 the average was #290 with no season ranked in the top 240. Baylor did play slightly faster than average from 2007 to 2013 with 2 seasons in the top 100 in pace during that stretch. By comparison, the past decade K-State averaged a rank of #275 and #241 in average possession length on offense.
Offensive efficiency
Baylor’s teams got their break into success with really good offenses. Drew’s 2008 team reached the NCAA tournament with a top 20 offense, finishing the season ranked #19. Since then, efficient offense has been a Baylor staple with an average rank of #23 over the last 15 seasons. The Bears have had a top 25 offense in 13 of the last 15 seasons and the last 2 years they ranked in the top 10; finishing #2 in 2021 and #9 this past season. From 2008 to 2016 the Bears were top 20 in offensive efficiency 8 times in 9 seasons. K-State has had 2 top 25 offenses in the last 15 seasons, #15 in 2010 and #23 in 2013. The average for a Bruce offense was #105 and last season the Cats finished at #58.
Offensive rebounding is the key
The most consistent factor in Baylor’s offense has been offensive rebounding. Every season for the last 9 the Bears have finished in the top 10 nationally in offensive rebounding rate. The flip happened during the 2011 season when the Bears finished #21, also the first Elite 8 for Baylor under Drew. At K-State we got used to aggressively hitting the offensive glass under Frank, when the Cats had top 10 oboarding teams every season. Bruce only had 2 teams finish in the top 20, 2013 and 2016. The Cats were #275 last season and were outside the top 100 in each of the last 6 seasons.
Solid shooting teams
Baylor teams have been pretty good shooting the ball, averaging #82 over the last 15 seasons in eFG%. The Baylor title team was a top 10 eFG% team, but then 4 teams in 6 seasons from 2015 to 2020 ranked outside the top 100. When Baylor has a top 80 eFG% team, they have managed a pair of 1 seeds and three 3 seeds in the NCAA tournament.
2 point shooting has been varied for Baylor with top 50 finishes the last 2 seasons. Before that there were 6 finishes outside the top 120 over the course of 7 seasons. At K-State we’ve had 2 top 100 2PT% seasons in the last 15 seasons. Under Frank his first season with Beasley and Walker and for Bruce 2017 and 2018. The average 2PT% in the last 15 seasons at K-State was #178 compared to #102 at Baylor in the same timespan.
3 point shooting has also been varied for the Bears. In their national title season, Baylor was the best 3PT% team nationally and hit over 40%, but they also had 4 seasons in 6 years ranking between 130-185. Still, they have been mostly good, ranking #87 over the last 15 seasons and 6 of the last 13 seasons they finished in the top 50. K-State averaged #208 in the last decade. The Cats finished #107 last year and were #75 in Bruce’s first season at K-State.
Baylor’s teams were never overly heavy on their rate of taking 3s, averaging #186 in 3 point rate over the last decade which is just below average. Drew’s early teams took a lot of 3s, ranking in the top 100 during 5 of his first 6 season, but none have been in the top 100 since then. Bruce’s teams were top 100 the last 2 seasons, but K-State has averaged a similar rate for taking 3s compared to Baylor over the last 15 seasons.
Average free throw rate
Baylor has never been great at getting to the FT line, finishing in the top 60 only twice in 2014 and 2011. The last 6 seasons they averaged ranking #230 with no season in the top 200. Bruce had a 3 year run in the top 40, but the last 5 years averaged at #200 nationally in FT rate. Frank’s teams were consistently in the top 50 at getting to the FT line. Baylor has been just above average at making FTs, ranking #153 over the last 15 seasons.
Above average assist rate
A feature for Bruce teams has been ranking high in assist rate (assists to made FGs) averaging nearly a top 50 ranking during his time here, though last season was the worst in his tenure finishing at #160. Baylor was Top 50 5 of the last 9 seasons with an average rank of #67 during that time.
Below average taking care of the ball
The Bears haven’t been great at taking care of the ball with a TO rate average of #166 the last 15 seasons. The 2020 and 2021 seasons were both top 100, but the Bears were 200 or worse the previous 5 seasons. K-State has generally been below average taking care of the ball the last 15 years ranking near #200 nationally. However, last year’s team was pretty good and finished at #71 nationally in TO rate.
Here is a full chart of Baylor's kenpom rankings for each stat over the Drew/Tang era. The green/yellow/red color chart based on a scale to 350 give you a good glimpse of what Baylor did well, where they average, and what they did poorly on a national scale.
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