If a team is 14 points behind late in the game as the Chiefs were today -- assuming (1) they score the 2 TD's they need to catch up, (2) the probability of a successful 1 point conversion is 100%, and (3) the probability of a successful 2 point conversion is equal to the league-wide average (47.87% in 2015), then...
Going for 2 when you score the 1st TD increases your probability of winning the game by 20.7%.
If the probability of a successful 1 point conversion is equal to the league-wide average in 2015 (which was 94.2% with the snap now being from the 15-yd line, then going for 2 when you score the first TD increases your probability of winning the game by 28.2%.
Those are simple mathematical facts. But it seems that they will never trump the fact that a coach will NEVER be criticized for sending a game to OT.
Going for 2 when you score the 1st TD increases your probability of winning the game by 20.7%.
If the probability of a successful 1 point conversion is equal to the league-wide average in 2015 (which was 94.2% with the snap now being from the 15-yd line, then going for 2 when you score the first TD increases your probability of winning the game by 28.2%.
Those are simple mathematical facts. But it seems that they will never trump the fact that a coach will NEVER be criticized for sending a game to OT.
