Injuries suck.
That's all there is to it. Injuries suck. But at this time of year, you have to be ready to play no matter what. Shaun Neal Williams needs to be ready to go. Levi Stockard needs to be ready to go. Hell, one of James Love or Nigel Shadd should absolutely be ready to go.
The question is, are they?
We are going to find out really quickly. West Virginia is a bad team. Like, TCU before they hired Jamie Dixon bad. But they still have division 1 athletes. They still beat KU in the second half of the game on Saturday. They weren't good, but they played hard in that second half. We can talk about them quitting on the season, but they have guys that are trying to make an impression and those guys played really hard in the second half against KU.
But make no mistake about it, this is a game that K-State should win 19 out of 20 times. Even short-handed, K-State should be able to play good enough defense and force enough turnovers that this game should see lots of guys get lots of minutes.
Against KU, WVU was 3-23 from three point range and turned the ball over 24 times. They can't make shots and they can't handle any kind of pressure. The surprising thing is that they also don't defend. It's hard to win games when those three things are going against you. But, it's a Monday night, in Morgantown, without 2 of your top 6 and on a short turnaround after a huge emotional letdown. The Cats better be ready to play.
That brings me to Iowa State.
I think the Cats absolutely came ready to play. I think they simply ran into a buzz saw on Saturday and you have to tip your cap to the other team. Sometimes it happens. Sometimes you play a team that you actually match up pretty well with and they simply play so well that there isn't anything you can do about it. That's what K-State ran into on Saturday. You don't expect for a team to come into your gym and shoot 14-24 from three point range. You don't expect a guy that was shooting 28% from three for the year and 9 of his last 33 to go 6-9 from deep. And it's not like those were simply wide open shots. Two were from 25 feet and over the top of Dean Wade.
It was just one of those days, or was it?
One of the things Bruce has gotten beat up for here and in other medias is his press conferences and his public speaking. Some of it was incredibly unwarranted. But every once in a while, he says some things that make me cringe as a coach.
In his press conference early last week, somebody asked him about Iowa State having a bye leading into the game. @KMAN_Squints tweeted about it. Bruce's response was "who cares". That's all well and good. Until the post game where he comes out and talks about how rested Iowa State was and how having the week off really helped them. Of course having the week off really helped them. It's February and any time you can rest your legs for a couple of days, it's going to really help with your shooting. It's pretty simple. But you can't be "Confident Bruce" as was said by a few people on twitter last week and then use it as an excuse 5 days later. It's a bad look.
As I was thinking about that though, I decided to go back and look at how much of a difference that time off can actually make.
Coming off a loss the previous Saturday to TCU where only 8 players played and Iowa State was 7-24 from three, they had their best shooting performance of the year making 14-24.
K-State's best shooting performance of the year came on it's bye week when they made 16-29 against Oklahoma State. Oklahoma State was 11-20 in that game and was their best shooting percentage of the year, coming off of their bye week.
Neither Baylor or TCU have a Saturday to Saturday bye during conference play.
Tech and KU both have their Saturday to Saturday bye's leading up to this week's game.
OU and Texas both have their Saturday to Saturday byes leading up to this week's game.
West Virginia was awful coming out of their bye against Kansas, but they have been awful against everybody.
So with half of the results in, three of the four teams that have had byes had their best shooting performance of the season. It will be interesting to see how that plays out at Tech and at OU this weekend.
The point of all of this is that Iowa State had a scheduling quirk and they took full advantage of it. They had a bye against a team that had played on Tuesday night. It's the only such instance of that scenario in the Big 12 this year.
I talked last week about how I like to break the schedule down into four game blocks. After Oklahoma State, I thought K-State needed to go 2-2 in the next four games to have a chance at the Big 12 title. I thought they would lose to Kansas and at Texas but win at Baylor and against Iowa State. Instead, they won those three games and lost to Iowa State. But it's still 3-1 and the Cats control their own destiny the rest of the way.
The next four game block starts tonight. Realistically, K-State must finish this block 3-1 to have any chance to win the league outright. If they go 3-1, they have a very realistic shot to go 5-1 and finish at 14-4. That still wins the league outright. Let's look at the league.
Iowa State has 4 losses already and isn't going 7-0 to finish the season. They still have to go to Teas, TCU and West Virginia and have Baylor, OU and Tech at home. OU is a tough matchup for them and Texas at home is tough for everyone. I actually think they lose two more games.
Kansas has the easist remaining schedule. They already have 4 losses, but they only have 5 games left. I have a hard time believing that they finish the season 8-0 to finish 14-4, they just aren't good enough on the road. They still have to go to Tech, To OK State and to Oklahoma. And don't count out that Big Monday night game next week. It actually sets up really well for K-State if Dean is healthy. Tech will be incredibly physical with Kansas on Saturday. That could mean tired legs for a really thin rotation and the Cats are possibly the worst matchup for Kansas in the league.
Tech is also 9-4 with trips to Ames and Fort Worth left and home games against KU and UT. I think they finish 12-6.
Unfortunately, right now, I see K-State losing two more.
Final rankings:
KU and K-State 13-5
Iowa State and Tech 12-6
That was really hard to type. This might make me a bad fan, but I almost want KU to not win the title as much as I want K-State to win it. I am simply so sick of hearing about the streak.
That brings us to Bracketology. I am sure most everybody that was watching the game on television heard the interview with Joe Lunardi at halftime on Saturday, but here it is in a synopsis. If K-State wins out and wins the league outright AND wins the Big 12 tournament, they could get to a three seed. He believes the first two seed lines are set in stone unless Kansas wins out AND wins the Big 12 tournament.
He moved K-State up to the 5 line on Thursday, but "they are losing at home today" and believes they will finish up around a 6 seed.
The most interesting thing he said though was about the NET rankings. @ksu_FAN is not going to like it, but Lunardi called the NET rankings, "the primary ranking tool for the committee" and said that the Big 12 is having the hardest time adapting from the RPI to the NET and that they are getting crushed by the rankings because of the styles that they play. He said if they were using the RPI instead of the NET, K-State would probably be on the 3 line instead of the 5 line.
All of that mumbo jumbo brings me back to injuries. K-State needs players to step up quickly. And as much as it pains me to say it, it needs to be Kam Stokes leading that charge. He was brutal against Iowa State. He was bad offensively and he was bad defensively. But if he can be good Kam, this week should be fine.
K-State had opportunities against Iowa State down the stretch and simply had nobody step up and make a big play when it was needed. The Cats had gotten it back to 2 points (I think 58-56) and from there, it completely unraveled. They missed two front ends of one and ones (Barry and Mak), Sneed missed a wide open three on a great extra pass that he has to make in that situation. Wigginton hit that deep three where Barry had his hands down defensively and the game simply spiraled out of control in the last 5 minutes.
If Barry stays Barry and Kam and Sneed can help him out on the offensive end, this team can win both of these games this week without Wade and have him ready for Monday night. If not, both games could be a real struggle.
That's all there is to it. Injuries suck. But at this time of year, you have to be ready to play no matter what. Shaun Neal Williams needs to be ready to go. Levi Stockard needs to be ready to go. Hell, one of James Love or Nigel Shadd should absolutely be ready to go.
The question is, are they?
We are going to find out really quickly. West Virginia is a bad team. Like, TCU before they hired Jamie Dixon bad. But they still have division 1 athletes. They still beat KU in the second half of the game on Saturday. They weren't good, but they played hard in that second half. We can talk about them quitting on the season, but they have guys that are trying to make an impression and those guys played really hard in the second half against KU.
But make no mistake about it, this is a game that K-State should win 19 out of 20 times. Even short-handed, K-State should be able to play good enough defense and force enough turnovers that this game should see lots of guys get lots of minutes.
Against KU, WVU was 3-23 from three point range and turned the ball over 24 times. They can't make shots and they can't handle any kind of pressure. The surprising thing is that they also don't defend. It's hard to win games when those three things are going against you. But, it's a Monday night, in Morgantown, without 2 of your top 6 and on a short turnaround after a huge emotional letdown. The Cats better be ready to play.
That brings me to Iowa State.
I think the Cats absolutely came ready to play. I think they simply ran into a buzz saw on Saturday and you have to tip your cap to the other team. Sometimes it happens. Sometimes you play a team that you actually match up pretty well with and they simply play so well that there isn't anything you can do about it. That's what K-State ran into on Saturday. You don't expect for a team to come into your gym and shoot 14-24 from three point range. You don't expect a guy that was shooting 28% from three for the year and 9 of his last 33 to go 6-9 from deep. And it's not like those were simply wide open shots. Two were from 25 feet and over the top of Dean Wade.
It was just one of those days, or was it?
One of the things Bruce has gotten beat up for here and in other medias is his press conferences and his public speaking. Some of it was incredibly unwarranted. But every once in a while, he says some things that make me cringe as a coach.
In his press conference early last week, somebody asked him about Iowa State having a bye leading into the game. @KMAN_Squints tweeted about it. Bruce's response was "who cares". That's all well and good. Until the post game where he comes out and talks about how rested Iowa State was and how having the week off really helped them. Of course having the week off really helped them. It's February and any time you can rest your legs for a couple of days, it's going to really help with your shooting. It's pretty simple. But you can't be "Confident Bruce" as was said by a few people on twitter last week and then use it as an excuse 5 days later. It's a bad look.
As I was thinking about that though, I decided to go back and look at how much of a difference that time off can actually make.
Coming off a loss the previous Saturday to TCU where only 8 players played and Iowa State was 7-24 from three, they had their best shooting performance of the year making 14-24.
K-State's best shooting performance of the year came on it's bye week when they made 16-29 against Oklahoma State. Oklahoma State was 11-20 in that game and was their best shooting percentage of the year, coming off of their bye week.
Neither Baylor or TCU have a Saturday to Saturday bye during conference play.
Tech and KU both have their Saturday to Saturday bye's leading up to this week's game.
OU and Texas both have their Saturday to Saturday byes leading up to this week's game.
West Virginia was awful coming out of their bye against Kansas, but they have been awful against everybody.
So with half of the results in, three of the four teams that have had byes had their best shooting performance of the season. It will be interesting to see how that plays out at Tech and at OU this weekend.
The point of all of this is that Iowa State had a scheduling quirk and they took full advantage of it. They had a bye against a team that had played on Tuesday night. It's the only such instance of that scenario in the Big 12 this year.
I talked last week about how I like to break the schedule down into four game blocks. After Oklahoma State, I thought K-State needed to go 2-2 in the next four games to have a chance at the Big 12 title. I thought they would lose to Kansas and at Texas but win at Baylor and against Iowa State. Instead, they won those three games and lost to Iowa State. But it's still 3-1 and the Cats control their own destiny the rest of the way.
The next four game block starts tonight. Realistically, K-State must finish this block 3-1 to have any chance to win the league outright. If they go 3-1, they have a very realistic shot to go 5-1 and finish at 14-4. That still wins the league outright. Let's look at the league.
Iowa State has 4 losses already and isn't going 7-0 to finish the season. They still have to go to Teas, TCU and West Virginia and have Baylor, OU and Tech at home. OU is a tough matchup for them and Texas at home is tough for everyone. I actually think they lose two more games.
Kansas has the easist remaining schedule. They already have 4 losses, but they only have 5 games left. I have a hard time believing that they finish the season 8-0 to finish 14-4, they just aren't good enough on the road. They still have to go to Tech, To OK State and to Oklahoma. And don't count out that Big Monday night game next week. It actually sets up really well for K-State if Dean is healthy. Tech will be incredibly physical with Kansas on Saturday. That could mean tired legs for a really thin rotation and the Cats are possibly the worst matchup for Kansas in the league.
Tech is also 9-4 with trips to Ames and Fort Worth left and home games against KU and UT. I think they finish 12-6.
Unfortunately, right now, I see K-State losing two more.
Final rankings:
KU and K-State 13-5
Iowa State and Tech 12-6
That was really hard to type. This might make me a bad fan, but I almost want KU to not win the title as much as I want K-State to win it. I am simply so sick of hearing about the streak.
That brings us to Bracketology. I am sure most everybody that was watching the game on television heard the interview with Joe Lunardi at halftime on Saturday, but here it is in a synopsis. If K-State wins out and wins the league outright AND wins the Big 12 tournament, they could get to a three seed. He believes the first two seed lines are set in stone unless Kansas wins out AND wins the Big 12 tournament.
He moved K-State up to the 5 line on Thursday, but "they are losing at home today" and believes they will finish up around a 6 seed.
The most interesting thing he said though was about the NET rankings. @ksu_FAN is not going to like it, but Lunardi called the NET rankings, "the primary ranking tool for the committee" and said that the Big 12 is having the hardest time adapting from the RPI to the NET and that they are getting crushed by the rankings because of the styles that they play. He said if they were using the RPI instead of the NET, K-State would probably be on the 3 line instead of the 5 line.
All of that mumbo jumbo brings me back to injuries. K-State needs players to step up quickly. And as much as it pains me to say it, it needs to be Kam Stokes leading that charge. He was brutal against Iowa State. He was bad offensively and he was bad defensively. But if he can be good Kam, this week should be fine.
K-State had opportunities against Iowa State down the stretch and simply had nobody step up and make a big play when it was needed. The Cats had gotten it back to 2 points (I think 58-56) and from there, it completely unraveled. They missed two front ends of one and ones (Barry and Mak), Sneed missed a wide open three on a great extra pass that he has to make in that situation. Wigginton hit that deep three where Barry had his hands down defensively and the game simply spiraled out of control in the last 5 minutes.
If Barry stays Barry and Kam and Sneed can help him out on the offensive end, this team can win both of these games this week without Wade and have him ready for Monday night. If not, both games could be a real struggle.
