Another big test for the Messingham offense after showing steady improvement from a disappointing start to Big 12 play. The Texas defense has not been good, but they will be the healthiest they've been since the 1st or 2nd week of the season. Still, this is one of the worst 3 defenses in the Big 12, sharing the bottom with Kansas and West Virginia. UT is 9th in yards per play, 10th in points per play, 9th in points per drive, 8th in offensive success rate allowed, 9th in havoc created, 8th in TD rate allowed, 10th in punt rate forced, and 9th in yards per drive allowed. From Connelly's SP+ stats, the UT defense allows a 43% rushing success rate (#77) and a power success rate of 73.7% (#69), though their overall SP+ rush defense is #30. Against the pass they are worse, allowing a passing success rate of 45% (#108), a sack rate of only 4% (#113), with the #69 SP+ pass defense. Most of UT's returning health comes in the secondary, so the pass defense should be helped the most.
Formation Chart
The main take away here is that K-State used 2 back sets more against KU than in any other Big 12 game. Granted, most of that was still from the gun using a lot of split back with a FB. Having all 3 healthy RBs might alter that and possibly lead to more Diamond like we saw vs OU. The most common formation was 2 WRs with a TE and H which has been the case the last several games. The KU game also saw more unbalanced formations, namely the TE to the trips side in spread and the TE/H to the single split in 2 back.
As for play calls, this game featured more option gives/keeps than any other that I have tracked this year. Everyone focuses on the speed option, but there were more true power reads and zone reads as well. As I talked about in my GIFs thread, it seems that the staff is putting a bit more on Thompson to make those reads at times, though that may go back down a bit if Gilbert and Brown are healthy. I didn't separate RB option from RB zone, but their were 10 option gives to a back that gained 49 yards on a 60% success rate in that RB Zone/Option category. I'm sure I likely mis-categorized a few, but that's over 25% of our offense coming on zone plays. That can mess with a defensive front (we read at least 4 or 5 different defenders for KU), because they have to a) be extremely disciplined with their keys and b) it can cause them to be thinking and possibly confused as the game progresses.
K-State also went back to more A gap power and while it didn't gain chunks, it was pretty successful at 46%. I especially liked the version out of 2 back gun which along with the zone read scheme only makes this offense more difficult to defend.
The passing game was very successful, but that does include Thompson scrambles. It will be interesting to see how Texas chooses to contain him because he has been very effective the last 3 games on scrambles and draws. I don't know how much UT plays man, which was a big issue for KU. Against Thompson, eyes on the QB matter and zone helps with that. Also, we'll see if there are any major adjustments against a true 3 man front like we saw vs OSU and Baylor.
Finally, one thing to watch in this game will be explosive plays. KSU and UT are both very similar this year; creating plays of over 20 yards just over 6% of the time (8th/9th in the league) and allowing plays of over 20 yards just over 8% of the time (also 8th/9th in the league).
This game is a toss up by the metrics as UT and KSU are ranked within 1 spot in both the SP+ and FEI. UT probably gets the slight advantage by playing at home, but it looks like a game that will go down to the end of the 4th. IMO K-State's ability to force FGs and score TDs inside the 40 will be keys.
Cats 38
Horns 34
Formation Chart
The main take away here is that K-State used 2 back sets more against KU than in any other Big 12 game. Granted, most of that was still from the gun using a lot of split back with a FB. Having all 3 healthy RBs might alter that and possibly lead to more Diamond like we saw vs OU. The most common formation was 2 WRs with a TE and H which has been the case the last several games. The KU game also saw more unbalanced formations, namely the TE to the trips side in spread and the TE/H to the single split in 2 back.
As for play calls, this game featured more option gives/keeps than any other that I have tracked this year. Everyone focuses on the speed option, but there were more true power reads and zone reads as well. As I talked about in my GIFs thread, it seems that the staff is putting a bit more on Thompson to make those reads at times, though that may go back down a bit if Gilbert and Brown are healthy. I didn't separate RB option from RB zone, but their were 10 option gives to a back that gained 49 yards on a 60% success rate in that RB Zone/Option category. I'm sure I likely mis-categorized a few, but that's over 25% of our offense coming on zone plays. That can mess with a defensive front (we read at least 4 or 5 different defenders for KU), because they have to a) be extremely disciplined with their keys and b) it can cause them to be thinking and possibly confused as the game progresses.
K-State also went back to more A gap power and while it didn't gain chunks, it was pretty successful at 46%. I especially liked the version out of 2 back gun which along with the zone read scheme only makes this offense more difficult to defend.
The passing game was very successful, but that does include Thompson scrambles. It will be interesting to see how Texas chooses to contain him because he has been very effective the last 3 games on scrambles and draws. I don't know how much UT plays man, which was a big issue for KU. Against Thompson, eyes on the QB matter and zone helps with that. Also, we'll see if there are any major adjustments against a true 3 man front like we saw vs OSU and Baylor.
Finally, one thing to watch in this game will be explosive plays. KSU and UT are both very similar this year; creating plays of over 20 yards just over 6% of the time (8th/9th in the league) and allowing plays of over 20 yards just over 8% of the time (also 8th/9th in the league).
This game is a toss up by the metrics as UT and KSU are ranked within 1 spot in both the SP+ and FEI. UT probably gets the slight advantage by playing at home, but it looks like a game that will go down to the end of the 4th. IMO K-State's ability to force FGs and score TDs inside the 40 will be keys.
Cats 38
Horns 34
