I think this has been done before, but thought I would offer a look back at our last five recruiting classes--focusing on HS recruits, only. I chose to focus only on HS recruits because it is clear (a) we have shifted our philosophy some in that direction, and (b) we simply are not landing many impact JC recruits. Among the JC signees, the 2011 class was easily the best in terms of the number of major contributors (Meshak, Malone, Chapman, Tuggle, Pease, Lutui, Simon), with no real busts. The 2012 JC guys, as a group--were the opposite--a couple major contributors, and a bunch who left or were not productive. The 2013 group included Waters, Dakorey, Nate Jackson, and T.Green...and some defections. 2014 included McDaniel, Hayes, Davis, T. Johnson, and the malcontent defectors...weak group, overall. 2015 was just Kirby and Olomua...and I have no clue whether Olomua ever made it...and I assume Kirby redshirted? Anyway...it's clear the base, and key to our future moving forward, is HS recruiting, so let's take a more detailed look.
Overall, I am left with one major conclusion: That 2015 class, even with some major losses already, could be really good, and a very strong foundation moving forward. I do not feel we've done as well in following-up on that class for 2016--indeed, 2016 is looking more like the 2012/13 classes, to me (but, again, time will tell). But there is some depth in that 2015 class, and if we can keep tand develop them, along with the smaller but potentially strong group from 2014, and fill holes with some key JC guys, we should be able to compete. I still see holes: CB, WR, and now, DL, possibly S. But there are almost certainly some all-league level players in those 2014/15 classes, and if add Ertz and Skylar Thompson from bookend classes...it could be worse. We have what I would call "depth players" just about everywhere. But we need some help at the top at WR, CB, DL and S--and a QB to emerge--to challenge the top-third of the league.
2011 Recruiting Class—HS (17)
Tyler Lockett—Best WR in school history, in the league
Cody Whitehair—Multi-year starter, all-league player, solid NFL prospect
Dante Barnett—Multi-year starter, all-league player, shot at the NFL if he can come back strong
Boston Stiverson—Multi-year starter, HM all-league, battled multiple injuries. TOUGH kid.
Marquel Bryant—Multi-year starter, solid
Morgan Burns—Multi-year starter, all-league special teams player, solid corner
Glenn Gronkowski—Multi-year starter, solid
Charmeachealle Moore—injury-plagued career, now a starter, solid spot contributor when healthy
Daniel Sams—played and contributed big early, transferred with two years remaining
Dillon Wilson—anything?
Tyler Davidson—left, never contributed (transferred to NEO, I think)
Ian Seau—left, never contributed (nice career at Nevada)
Jade Cathey—left, never contributed
Lamonte Clark—left, never contributed
Hunter Davis—left, never contributed
Branden Mickens—left, never contributed
Sam Harvill—left, RIP
That’s a pretty good group of HS players, honestly. People think we have recruited better HS talent in the last couple years, but this one will be hard to beat at the top, and it produced 8.5 major contributors most of whom played at or above the level we need to compete in the top third of the conference. Is that enough? Borderline, probably.
2012 Recruiting Class—HS (13)
Travis Britz—multi-year starter, all-league player
Charles Jones—multi-year starter, modest production
Will Davis—multi-year starter, modest production
Deante Burton—multi-year starter, modest production
Donny Starks—first year starter this season; had moments
Matt Seiwert—backup, started Liberty Bowl; very few snaps to date
Cody Small—shared time at TE. Tough year.
Jarvis Leverette—backup, no significant production
Demonte Hood—solid backup, team leader, dismissed from team this season
Tay Bender—left, never contributed
Judah Jones—left, never contributed
Aderius Epps—left, never contributed
Vernon Vaugh—left, never contributed
Small HS class, and FAR less productive than the 2011 group, with minimal future promise. Very underwhelming, as a class, and not one that can compete at the top half of the conference. We got a couple good JC recruits out of this class...but overall, not enough players here, and no major impact players (Britz is closes, but frankly, he plateaued a bit). This 2012 recruiting failure was paid for by the 2015 season.
2013 Recruiting Class—HS (13)
Jordan Willis—multi-year starter, solid player.
Jesse Ertz—earned starting job and injured first play; promising careeràuncertain future
Matthew McCrane—very good career as kicker
Dayton Valentine—shared time at TE, fairly tough year
Sean Newlan—became starter through injury this year; tough first year of meaningful action
Tanner Wood—rotation player, minor contributor to date
Reed Najvar—depth, no meaningful snaps to date
Ajahne Brager—depth, no meaningful snaps to date
Cre Moore—depth, no meaningful snaps to date, doghouse
Chance Allen—left, never contributed
Isiah Williams—left, never contributed
LeAndrew Gordon—left, never contributed, transferred down
Nick Ramirez—left, never contributed, legal trouble
Still some time left for this group, but lacks star-power or major playmakers. Ertz may end up as a major player, or a "what could have been" story, but either way, I don't see this class as being any better--and probably worse--than the 2012 class, overall. It's small, and really, so far, Willis is the only impact player. Ertz has a chance. Wood and Valentine MAY turn out to be solid, and Newlan has a shot, too (though I still think he is athletically limited as his position). With the exception of Willis, this class provided little support for a team with aspirations of playing in the top half of the conference, or better. We paid for it this year, and likely next, as well.
2014 Recruiting Class—HS (12)
Elijah Lee—played as FRhs, started as SO; had moments, named All-league, but not complete player yet
Kaleb Prewett—played as FRhs (sadly); started as SO; had moments and struggles; injured; FUTURE??
Winston Dimel—first year starter as rFR, productive, promising future
Dalton Risner—first year starter as rFR, promising future, ups and downs this year
Dominique Heath—starter as rFR, largely unproductive both as receiver and in return game
Sam Sizelove—spot starter, rotation player, some production, injured
Zach Reuter—became starter; very limited production
Dalvin Warmack—limited touches, depth, moderate production
Kendall Adams—spot starter due to injury; tough first season of meaningful action
Justin Hughes—no snaps yet
CJ Reese—no meaningful snaps yet
Tyler Ahrens—left, never contributed
Too early to say much here. Some glimpses of bright futures…MANY tempting, but no sure bets. Only one defection, so far. Smaller group limits overall impact. I'm not convinced Lee is or will be strong enough to be an every-down backer, especially against a team that has good and big running backs. He does some great things...but is not a complete player. I don't know where Prewett stands. Struggled some--as most first-year safeties seem to do in our system. But he has the tools to play at a high level. Dimel was real good for a FR, and deserved none of the abuse he took here. Risner was had some typical struggles for a rFR lineman, and needs to get stronger and improve technique, but has potential. Sizelove has huge upside, IMO, and I think he could be our best young backer (of those we've seen, anyway). Heath--just not sold. I don't see much wiggle, a great burst, elusiveness. I see small. So far. Wish I could have seen more of Warmack, and that's really all I can say. Adams is a good athlete, but struggled along with our other safeties getting their first meaningful action (Newlan, Prewett). I think he has upside...not sure how high? We haven't seen Hughes or Reese.
2015 Recruiting Class—HS (22)
Duke Shelley—became starter after McDaniel injury; played well
Alex Delton—played five snaps, seeking medical redshirt (not the correct term, anymore, but I don't care)
Scott Frantz—redshirted
Reggie Walker—redshirted
Elijah Sullivan—redshirted
Alex Barnes—redshirted
Bryce English—redshirted, left program; family medical issues
Darreyl Patterson—never eligible; decided to go JC route
Kalin Heath—redshirted, left program
Isiah Zuber—redshirted
Chase Johnston—redshirted
Joshua Little—redshirted, left program (I think)
Evan Applegate—redshirted
Denzel Goolsby—redshirted
Adam Holtorf—redshirted
Evan Curl—redshirted
Trey Dishon—redshirted
Johnathan Durham—redshirted
Tyler Mitchell—redshirted
Tyler Burns—greyshirted?
Brett Bell—greyshirted?
Kyle Ball—greyshirted?
In terms of HS players, this class had more players rated ABOVE 5.5 than any we have signed since Bill returned (7). Unfortunately, English and Patterson were two of them, and are gone, both at positions of immediate need next year. Still, this class has a chance to rival the production 2011 class before it is done. Roster-wise, we still have some major holes, left in large part to marginal production from our JC signees, and departures. But this 2015 class is a decent longer-term base for the next four years…depending on what we do, moving forward.
Overall, I am left with one major conclusion: That 2015 class, even with some major losses already, could be really good, and a very strong foundation moving forward. I do not feel we've done as well in following-up on that class for 2016--indeed, 2016 is looking more like the 2012/13 classes, to me (but, again, time will tell). But there is some depth in that 2015 class, and if we can keep tand develop them, along with the smaller but potentially strong group from 2014, and fill holes with some key JC guys, we should be able to compete. I still see holes: CB, WR, and now, DL, possibly S. But there are almost certainly some all-league level players in those 2014/15 classes, and if add Ertz and Skylar Thompson from bookend classes...it could be worse. We have what I would call "depth players" just about everywhere. But we need some help at the top at WR, CB, DL and S--and a QB to emerge--to challenge the top-third of the league.
2011 Recruiting Class—HS (17)
Tyler Lockett—Best WR in school history, in the league
Cody Whitehair—Multi-year starter, all-league player, solid NFL prospect
Dante Barnett—Multi-year starter, all-league player, shot at the NFL if he can come back strong
Boston Stiverson—Multi-year starter, HM all-league, battled multiple injuries. TOUGH kid.
Marquel Bryant—Multi-year starter, solid
Morgan Burns—Multi-year starter, all-league special teams player, solid corner
Glenn Gronkowski—Multi-year starter, solid
Charmeachealle Moore—injury-plagued career, now a starter, solid spot contributor when healthy
Daniel Sams—played and contributed big early, transferred with two years remaining
Dillon Wilson—anything?
Tyler Davidson—left, never contributed (transferred to NEO, I think)
Ian Seau—left, never contributed (nice career at Nevada)
Jade Cathey—left, never contributed
Lamonte Clark—left, never contributed
Hunter Davis—left, never contributed
Branden Mickens—left, never contributed
Sam Harvill—left, RIP
That’s a pretty good group of HS players, honestly. People think we have recruited better HS talent in the last couple years, but this one will be hard to beat at the top, and it produced 8.5 major contributors most of whom played at or above the level we need to compete in the top third of the conference. Is that enough? Borderline, probably.
2012 Recruiting Class—HS (13)
Travis Britz—multi-year starter, all-league player
Charles Jones—multi-year starter, modest production
Will Davis—multi-year starter, modest production
Deante Burton—multi-year starter, modest production
Donny Starks—first year starter this season; had moments
Matt Seiwert—backup, started Liberty Bowl; very few snaps to date
Cody Small—shared time at TE. Tough year.
Jarvis Leverette—backup, no significant production
Demonte Hood—solid backup, team leader, dismissed from team this season
Tay Bender—left, never contributed
Judah Jones—left, never contributed
Aderius Epps—left, never contributed
Vernon Vaugh—left, never contributed
Small HS class, and FAR less productive than the 2011 group, with minimal future promise. Very underwhelming, as a class, and not one that can compete at the top half of the conference. We got a couple good JC recruits out of this class...but overall, not enough players here, and no major impact players (Britz is closes, but frankly, he plateaued a bit). This 2012 recruiting failure was paid for by the 2015 season.
2013 Recruiting Class—HS (13)
Jordan Willis—multi-year starter, solid player.
Jesse Ertz—earned starting job and injured first play; promising careeràuncertain future
Matthew McCrane—very good career as kicker
Dayton Valentine—shared time at TE, fairly tough year
Sean Newlan—became starter through injury this year; tough first year of meaningful action
Tanner Wood—rotation player, minor contributor to date
Reed Najvar—depth, no meaningful snaps to date
Ajahne Brager—depth, no meaningful snaps to date
Cre Moore—depth, no meaningful snaps to date, doghouse
Chance Allen—left, never contributed
Isiah Williams—left, never contributed
LeAndrew Gordon—left, never contributed, transferred down
Nick Ramirez—left, never contributed, legal trouble
Still some time left for this group, but lacks star-power or major playmakers. Ertz may end up as a major player, or a "what could have been" story, but either way, I don't see this class as being any better--and probably worse--than the 2012 class, overall. It's small, and really, so far, Willis is the only impact player. Ertz has a chance. Wood and Valentine MAY turn out to be solid, and Newlan has a shot, too (though I still think he is athletically limited as his position). With the exception of Willis, this class provided little support for a team with aspirations of playing in the top half of the conference, or better. We paid for it this year, and likely next, as well.
2014 Recruiting Class—HS (12)
Elijah Lee—played as FRhs, started as SO; had moments, named All-league, but not complete player yet
Kaleb Prewett—played as FRhs (sadly); started as SO; had moments and struggles; injured; FUTURE??
Winston Dimel—first year starter as rFR, productive, promising future
Dalton Risner—first year starter as rFR, promising future, ups and downs this year
Dominique Heath—starter as rFR, largely unproductive both as receiver and in return game
Sam Sizelove—spot starter, rotation player, some production, injured
Zach Reuter—became starter; very limited production
Dalvin Warmack—limited touches, depth, moderate production
Kendall Adams—spot starter due to injury; tough first season of meaningful action
Justin Hughes—no snaps yet
CJ Reese—no meaningful snaps yet
Tyler Ahrens—left, never contributed
Too early to say much here. Some glimpses of bright futures…MANY tempting, but no sure bets. Only one defection, so far. Smaller group limits overall impact. I'm not convinced Lee is or will be strong enough to be an every-down backer, especially against a team that has good and big running backs. He does some great things...but is not a complete player. I don't know where Prewett stands. Struggled some--as most first-year safeties seem to do in our system. But he has the tools to play at a high level. Dimel was real good for a FR, and deserved none of the abuse he took here. Risner was had some typical struggles for a rFR lineman, and needs to get stronger and improve technique, but has potential. Sizelove has huge upside, IMO, and I think he could be our best young backer (of those we've seen, anyway). Heath--just not sold. I don't see much wiggle, a great burst, elusiveness. I see small. So far. Wish I could have seen more of Warmack, and that's really all I can say. Adams is a good athlete, but struggled along with our other safeties getting their first meaningful action (Newlan, Prewett). I think he has upside...not sure how high? We haven't seen Hughes or Reese.
2015 Recruiting Class—HS (22)
Duke Shelley—became starter after McDaniel injury; played well
Alex Delton—played five snaps, seeking medical redshirt (not the correct term, anymore, but I don't care)
Scott Frantz—redshirted
Reggie Walker—redshirted
Elijah Sullivan—redshirted
Alex Barnes—redshirted
Bryce English—redshirted, left program; family medical issues
Darreyl Patterson—never eligible; decided to go JC route
Kalin Heath—redshirted, left program
Isiah Zuber—redshirted
Chase Johnston—redshirted
Joshua Little—redshirted, left program (I think)
Evan Applegate—redshirted
Denzel Goolsby—redshirted
Adam Holtorf—redshirted
Evan Curl—redshirted
Trey Dishon—redshirted
Johnathan Durham—redshirted
Tyler Mitchell—redshirted
Tyler Burns—greyshirted?
Brett Bell—greyshirted?
Kyle Ball—greyshirted?
In terms of HS players, this class had more players rated ABOVE 5.5 than any we have signed since Bill returned (7). Unfortunately, English and Patterson were two of them, and are gone, both at positions of immediate need next year. Still, this class has a chance to rival the production 2011 class before it is done. Roster-wise, we still have some major holes, left in large part to marginal production from our JC signees, and departures. But this 2015 class is a decent longer-term base for the next four years…depending on what we do, moving forward.
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