ADVERTISEMENT

***OFFICIAL CONFERENCE RACE/PROJECTIONS/CHAT THREAD***

bornploopers

bornploopers

All-American performer
Oct 27, 2015
25,706
83,251
113
Kimball Ave
Figured this would be nice to have for the back half of league play, and went ahead and did a little digging this morning on the contenders and their skeds.

KU (6-4)

OSU
@TCU
WV
@TT
KSU
@OSU
@OU
BAY

They've got the easiest path left as their only projected loss left is @TT. I know they've been terrible on the road and their O is really struggling but I don't see them going worse than 2-2 and they won't lose at AFH. It'll be tough to win it outright imo but they've got a good shot at at least a share.

TT (6-4)

@OU
@OSU
BAY
KU
OSU
@TCU
UT
@ISU

They're also in good shape schedule-wise (3 games left vs contenders, 2 at home), I'm just not a big believer in them at all unless they can start scoring (I know they just dropped 81 but it was still only WV). They're favored in all but that game @ISU but I think they go 5-3.

ISU (7-3)

TCU
@KSU
BAY
@TCU
OU
@UT
@WV
TT

Their SOS is almost identical to TT's going forward. They're 3-2 on the road and their D has been pretty good BUT 1) each win was by 2 possessions or less 2) 2 wins were over the 8th and 9th place teams and 3) they've only played 2 of the top 6 league offenses on the road - and lost both of those. I wouldn't be terribly shocked if they went 1-3 down the stretch. Don't think they drop another one in Ames, but possible I guess. 12-6 seems likely to me.

BAY (6-3)

KSU
OU
@TT
@ISU
WV
UT
@KSU
OSU
@KU

They've been playing out of their minds until last night but they have the toughest slate left (still have to visit the other 4 contenders plus have us on Saturday). They're projected to go 5-4 and that looks about right to me.

KSU (7-2)

@BAY
@UT
ISU
@WV
OSU
@KU
BAY
@TCU
OU

We're projected only 4-5 but I think we can manage at least 5-4. Split the next two, get one of @WV/@KU/@TCU, and get at least three of the four at home. Even if we lose to ISU in that scenario, we're in great shape for at least a co-title at 12-6.

 
  • Like
Reactions: aznative, CannCat, Panjandrum and 2 others
I just am blimndly hoping the team can taste it and gets locked in. Yes next two are tough but if we somehow steal those two would be absolutely massive.

Agreed on KU, unfortunately I could easily see them getting stuff fixed enough they go on an 8-0, 7-1 tear to end the year. They are more than capable. Theyll destroy OSU, OU is garbage, TCU doesnt play defense, Tech has the leagues worst offense and I just dont see then scoring enough.

BUT, I have a weird, WEIRD feeling our game there is gonna be a nail biter. We havent been intimidated by AFH past 2 years against much better KU squads. Would be enormous to go in their with at least 1 game lead.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: Cataclysmic Rise and Matt Hall
I honestly think that we end up 14-4, 13-5 at worst. If we bring the energy like we did Tuesday night the last 4 at home, we will not lose. I think we win Saturday and Tuesday which gets us to 10-2 traveling to WV. We beat them without Dean and he will be back and is playing like an animal right now so that could get us to 11-2. Then OSU at home, we will throttle them, 12-2, then we will more than likely lose at KU, 12-3, Beat Baylor to go 13-3, possibly lose at TCU but don't think so to go 13-4, Beat OU, 14-4. Slip up this weekend or Tuesday and we will be 13-5 but I don't see it, I think we are locked in. I think 13-5 wins it outright, 14-4 no doubt does
 
  • Like
Reactions: whichdoctor, QUIST and Cataclysmic Rise
Thanks for this evaluation bp. It does seem like Baylor is least likely and we can help make that official with a win Saturday. KU is a long way from dead unless they have another bad loss like @WV.
 
ksucripps7878 said:
I honestly think that we end up 14-4, 13-5 at worst. If we bring the energy like we did Tuesday night the last 4 at home, we will not lose. I think we win Saturday and Tuesday which gets us to 10-2 traveling to WV. We beat them without Dean and he will be back and is playing like an animal right now so that could get us to 11-2. Then OSU at home, we will throttle them, 12-2, then we will more than likely lose at KU, 12-3, Beat Baylor to go 13-3, possibly lose at TCU but don't think so to go 13-4, Beat OU, 14-4. Slip up this weekend or Tuesday and we will be 13-5 but I don't see it, I think we are locked in. I think 13-5 wins it outright, 14-4 no doubt does
Click to expand...
Man I wish I could be this optimistic. We definitely have the toughest road ahead....and the book is out on how to defend us (actually has been out for awhile) with two games left against the best zone defense in the league. If we could go 2-1 over the next three, I think we at least tie. We'll be underdogs the next two for sure. I see 5-4.....and don't see Ku losing more that 2 more, so tie at best.
 
  • Like
Reactions: EMAWculate Conception
I think KU has 3-4 more losses...@TCU, @TT and 1 or 2 against WV, Baylor or KSU.

I don’t see more than 2 losses for TT...Baylor and KU.

ISU probably will have 3 more losses, they have tough roadies coming up.

I think Baylor has at least 3 more losses in them...split with us, lose at TT, lose another to ISU, UT, or KU.

Sets up nicely for KU to not repeat, but I think 13-5 shares the title, 14-4 wins outright.
 
ThommyJohn said:
I think KU has 3-4 more losses...@TCU, @TT and 1 or 2 against WV, Baylor or KSU.

I don’t see more than 2 losses for TT...Baylor and KU.

ISU probably will have 3 more losses, they have tough roadies coming up.

I think Baylor has at least 3 more losses in them...split with us, lose at TT, lose another to ISU, UT, or KU.

Sets up nicely for KU to not repeat, but I think 13-5 shares the title, 14-4 wins outright.
Click to expand...
I think you're too low on the Hawks and a little high high on TT (you think they're winning in Ames?).

I'd be fairly surprised if 13-5 didn't take it outright.
 
  • Like
Reactions: tkurthl, Panjandrum and PowercatBonanza
IMO, KU being "KU" is the only thing keeping that team from being judged as anything other than an upper half conference team. They just don't have anything special. What they really lack is that one guy (who every other season they seemingly always have) that will just refuse to let the team lose. Right now, their best player (Lawson) coasts through a lot of games. I just don't see much in the way of leadership on that team.

They're going to lose at least 2-3 more games, and I would guess at least 1 of them will be at home.

So far this season, they've been terrible on the road, and have mostly skated by at home. I just don't see what some are seeing, that this team is positioned to go on a run late in the season. To me, it's just as probable they falter down the stretch.

We scored 4 points in the last 10 minutes of the 1st half against them the other night. Any past KU team would have buried us, had we done that.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: AndrewVonLintel, Cataclysmic Rise, L8NITKAT and 1 other person
Started by penciling in the Cats, then KU, and so on making sure W's and L's align across schedules.

*****CONTENDER GAME

KU (6-4)
OSU W
@TCU W
WV W
@TT L*****
KSU W*****
@OSU W
@OU L
BAY W*****
FINAL: 12-6
VS REMAINING: 6-2
VS REMAINING CONTENDERS: 2-1 (2 HOME GAMES)
VS BOTTOM DWELLERS: 4-1
You could easily put them winning out on paper but I just don't think they are consistent enough, nor do they have the leadership on the court that they've always seemed to have in their run. IMO there is no way they lose less than 2 games.

TT (6-4)
@OU L
@OSU W
BAY W*****
KU W*****
OSU W
@TCU L
UT W
@ISU L*****
FINAL: 11-7
VS REMAINING: 5-3
VS REMAINING CONTENDERS: 2-1 (2 HOME GAMES)
VS BOTTOM DWELLERS: 4-2
They started strong but haven't looked as solid. I don't see them winning two roadies in a row (thus OU loss) and think they drop a winnable one. The two W's vs Baylor and KU (in a row) are debatable but too inconsistent to win all the others either way.

ISU (7-3)
TCU W
@KSU L***** BIG ****ING GAME
BAY L *****
@TCU W
OU W
@UT L
@WV W
TT W*****
FINAL: 12-6
VS REMAINING: 5-3
VS REMAINING CONTENDERS: 1-2 (2 HOME GAMES)
VS BOTTOM DWELLERS: 4-1
I don't think Baylor has a complete collapse in the back half of the year and this is the win I think they get on the road. This could go the other way. ISU, to me, considering their schedule, is the team we have to beat on the road down the stretch.

BAY (6-3)
KSU W*****
OU W
@TT L*****
@ISU W*****
WV W
UT W
@KSU L*****
OSU W
@KU L*****
FINAL: 12-6
VS REMAINING: 6-3
VS REMAINING CONTENDERS: 2-3 (1 HOME GAME)
VS BOTTOM DWELLERS: 4-0
Benefited from a fav scheduled 1st half of conf. Slip down the end despite Scott Drew's coaching prowess.

KSU (7-2)
@BAY L*****
@UT W
ISU W*****
@WV W
OSU W
@KU L*****
BAY W*****
@TCU L
OU W
FINAL: 13-5
VS REMAINING: 6-3
VS REMAINING CONTENDERS: 2-2 (2 HOME GAMES)
VS BOTTOM DWELLERS: 4-1
We have a letdown game this weekend coming off the big emotional W. I don't think we can mark a W in AFH and I think we have another cold night somewhere (offensively). Generally speaking I think we are locked in and fight down the stretch but our offense loses us a winnable one.
 
  • Like
Reactions: ksu1017 and young_cat
bornploopers said:
I think you're too low on the Hawks and a little high high on TT (you think they're winning in Ames?).

I'd be fairly surprised if 13-5 didn't take it outright.
Click to expand...
I probably am too high on TT, especially if they play anymore games like they did against KU. I don’t see them losing to OU, OSU (twice), or TCU. That leaves Baylor, KU, UT (all at home) and @ISU. I don’t see KU or UT winning a road game at TT...so, losses against Baylor and ISU.

As for KU...they suck on the road and TCU has historically given them problems. Three more losses is definitely possible with the way they’ve played, but it will come down to how well Baylor and KSU can play them at AFH.
 
I’ll be encouraged if we go 2-1 or 3-0 over the next three, but still give me KU. That schedule is a breeze and I just don’t see a program with that history totally folding.
 
ThommyJohn said:
As for KU...they suck on the road and TCU has historically given them problems. Three more losses is definitely possible with the way they’ve played, but it will come down to how well Baylor and KSU can play them at AFH.
Click to expand...
They were 4-5 on the road in 2014-15 with an awful loss to us mixed in. 15 straight gives them the benefit of the doubt here to at least go 2-2 imo.
 
  • Like
Reactions: opdoubled
Panjandrum said:
The nail in the coffin is us somehow winning at AFH.

I know, I know, that won't happen, but I feel like if we're going to take this outright, it's what has to happen.
Click to expand...
THAT would be fan-tab-u-lous!!!
 
young_cat said:
IMO, KU being "KU" is the only thing keeping that team from being judged as anything other than an upper half conference team. They just don't have anything special. What they really lack is that one guy (who every other season they seemingly always have) that will just refuse to let the team lose. Right now, their best player (Lawson) coasts through a lot of games. I just don't see much in the way of leadership on that team.

They're going to lose at least 2-3 more games, and I would guess at least 1 of them will be at home.

So far this season, they've been terrible on the road, and have mostly skated by at home. I just don't see what some are seeing, that this team is positioned to go on a run late in the season. To me, it's just as probable they falter down the stretch.

We scored 4 points in the last 10 minutes of the 1st half against them the other night. Any past KU team would have buried us, had we done that.
Click to expand...
I get all this, but I refuse to bury them until they're mathematically dead.

They've been terrible on the road before, and OU and OSU are bad. They beat both those teams if they only play as well as they did against us the other night.

And I think anyone who believes they'll drop one in AFH is nuts.
 
  • Like
Reactions: tkurthl
bornploopers said:
I get all this, but I refuse to bury them until they're mathematically dead.

They've been terrible on the road before, and OU and OSU are bad. They beat both those teams if they only play as well as they did against us the other night.

And I think anyone who believes they'll drop one in AFH is nuts.
Click to expand...
They likely won't, but we may be the best suited to do it.

However, Barry may regret that dunk because they'll be up for that game. Big time.
 
bornploopers said:
I get all this, but I refuse to bury them until they're mathematically dead.

They've been terrible on the road before, and OU and OSU are bad. They beat both those teams if they only play as well as they did against us the other night.

And I think anyone who believes they'll drop one in AFH is nuts.
Click to expand...

Last year (when they were better) they lost to Arizona State at home, Texas Tech at home, and Oklahoma State at home. The year before that, when they went 16-2 and ran right through the Big 12 schedule.......they dropped a home game to ISU.

Why, with their worst squad in years, is it unfathomable that they drop a game at home?
 
  • Like
Reactions: AndrewVonLintel, whichdoctor, EMAW 4 Ever and 1 other person
Panjandrum said:
The nail in the coffin is us somehow winning at AFH.

I know, I know, that won't happen, but I feel like if we're going to take this outright, it's what has to happen.
Click to expand...

Again, 3 pts have decided our last 2 games there. Yes that place will be rocking, but I honestly dont think it will rattle this team. I think they mentally overcame the hump tuesday, they 'sorta' believed before, now they KNOW they can win. I think its gonna be a close, close game
 
  • Like
Reactions: whichdoctor
bornploopers said:
This is exactly why I give us a 0% chance of winning that game.

Our only hope imo is Scott Drew getting his first win in AFH.
Click to expand...
That's possible for sure.

We need TCU and Tech to catch them while they're down.

Though there is something poetic about probably needing to sweep them to seal the deal.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Purpletothebone
It will be interesting to see if we can continue our Big 12 numbers since Dean's return.

Here is what we've done in those 6 games.

Dy1gWMtX0AAVPcs.jpg:large
 
young_cat said:
Last year (when they were better) they lost to Arizona State at home, Texas Tech at home, and Oklahoma State at home. The year before that, when they went 16-2 and ran right through the Big 12 schedule.......they dropped a home game to ISU.

Why, with their worst squad in years, is it unfathomable that they drop a game at home?
Click to expand...
Because they weren't in desperation mode when they lost those conference games. They were tied or solely in first before each one.

They know their backs are against the wall now.
 
  • Like
Reactions: PowercatBonanza
young_cat said:
Last year (when they were better) they lost to Arizona State at home, Texas Tech at home, and Oklahoma State at home. The year before that, when they went 16-2 and ran right through the Big 12 schedule.......they dropped a home game to ISU.

Why, with their worst squad in years, is it unfathomable that they drop a game at home?
Click to expand...

Oh I agree, but we've talked ourselves into believing the streak was over how many times now? 3 game losing streak a few years ago and we were SURE it was it, last year Tech looked great first half of year ( is that us this year) then fell apart after losing a key guy, just how many times have contenders faltered down the stretch and KU gets in a rhythm? Just hard to truly buy in 'this is it' personally. Lol. Defeatist, pessimist, realist, pick one you wanna call me. Frankly it has nothing to do with KU and more that other than top 4 in this league the teams are all struggling and not proving to me they are capable of beating KU.

Maybe some teams that are struggling right now like OU and TCU get things figured out, i dont know. Maybe there are bigger, festering issues in KU's lockerroom that we dont know about that are gonna keep holding KU back.

Who knows, Ill stop rambling now.
 
I think the question about KU is who can and will step into a leader role for them. They don’t seem to have that player right now. But I’m not going to count out Self... that would be foolish...
 
bornploopers said:
Because they weren't in desperation mode when they lost those conference games. They were tied or solely in first before each one.

They know their backs are against the wall now.
Click to expand...

They were in a race for the conference title up until the last couple weeks last season. A season in which they dropped 3 home games. It wasn't until Keenan Evans' injury that they even took the lead for the conference race.

I mean you can believe they will win all their remaining home games. It's not far-fetched.

However......it's some supreme hyperbole to state its "nuts" to think they will drop one. Because, recent history would suggest they will drop one.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Captain Beefheart and Purpletothebone
If KU had our record, most on here would say "it's over".

I like our chances to win the conference outright. We are not a team without flaws. Neither is any other team in this conference including KU this year.
 
bornploopers said:
Recent history also says they haven't found themselves in this specific position at this point in the year either.
Click to expand...
Correct so throw out recent history. We are in uncharted territory which is exactly where we all wanted to be for a long time.

Let it play out. We have a team that has already been unpredictable at times (both good and bad), but have shown they have the ability to beat any team in this conference away or at home.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

chrisle

K-State baseball at Baylor

Replies
0
Views
355
The Cat Cave
chrisle
chrisle
L

Crazy Big 12 Scenario

Replies
14
Views
3K
The Cat Cave
diogenes51
diogenes51
Kevin_Fielder

K-State WBB stays put at No. 12 in AP Poll

Replies
5
Views
774
The Cat Cave
Sasqash76
S
Kevin_Fielder

Game Thread: K-State MBB vs. TCU

Replies
49
Views
2K
The Cat Cave
diogenes51
diogenes51
Kevin_Fielder

Game Thread: No 10 K-State WBB vs. Milawukee

Replies
9
Views
667
The Cat Cave
Kevin_Fielder
Kevin_Fielder
ADVERTISEMENT

Latest posts

ADVERTISEMENT
ADVERTISEMENT
Top Bottom
Back