A few of the key guys made some big strides this year (Barry, Dean), and some did gain a little more consistency (Sneed, Stokes).
What do we think is an appropriate stat line for each player next year? How does that translate to victories?
I'll start:
Wade (Current): 16.1 ppg/6.3 rpg/2.6 apg
Wade (Projected): 19.3 ppg/6.5 rpg/3.1 apg
Reasoning: I think Dean is what he is on the boards. I think he'll likely be a little more mature and a little more aggressive, leading to a slight uptick. But he is what he is. I also think what we're seeing, offensively, right now, is close to his ceiling, but if he can improve, he could look like Niang his SR year. He's playing extremely well, but his ORtg is actually lower this year than last. His usage is up several points, however. I think we'll see more aggression from the get go next year with double digit shot attempts each game, which will lead to something closer to Niang's SR numbers.
Brown (Current): 16.0 ppg/3.1 rpg/3.5 apg
Brown (Projected): 18.2 ppg/3.0 rpg/4.1 apg
Reasoning: Barry has kind of found himself and who he is in the back half of this season. He's embraced the slasher within and seen a renaissance in his game. Each year, his ORtg has seen a 7 point gain, so if he does next year, he'd be close to where Dean is now. I think Barry is the one with the most upside to grow next year. Also, his ATO has gotten better each year, so I think he'll see about an additional assist per game with, hopefully, less TOs. Maybe something like 4.1 apg/1.8 tov
Stokes (Current): 11.5 ppg/4.3 apg/1.8 TOg
Stokes (Projected): 10.3 ppg/4.8 apg/1.4 TOg
Reasoning: Personally, I think Stokes loses some minutes, but he becomes slightly more efficient. I think Diarra's defense will push Stokes onto the bench more, but he'll find his role assuming his eFG becomes marginally better. He saw a solid jump in ORtg this year before his injury, so I don't see why he would take a big step back.
Sneed (Current): 11.2 ppg/4.3 rpg/1.5 apg
Sneed (Projected) 13.0 ppg/5.1 rpg/2.9 apg
Reasoning: X and his stats, at least in the points and board category, really look a lot like Wes after his Junior year. He has less assists because he handles the ball less than Wes did, but do I think he can have a similar growth? Yeah. He already has a better ORtg than Wes during his senior year, so I think if he continues to tighten up his game, we can see him emerge into a very dangerous glue guy with the potential to really light up the stat sheet his senior year.
Diarra (Current): 7.1 ppg/2.1 rpg/2.0 apg
Diarra (Projected) 9.2 ppg/2.4 rpg/2.9 apg
Reasoning: He's averaging more in these categories during conference play, but going into next season, I think he's going to lose some time to Stokes. I think it's going to be hard to push him back into the starting lineup if Stokes is healthy because the senior usually gets the nod.But I think he can get a little better.
I'm not even going to do the posts because I simply don't know what in the Hell to expect. If someone else wants to take a crack, go ahead.
I think, overall, this core of five guys will be what determines the kind of team we have next year. I think they'll be a stronger, more efficient team...IF...they learn their roles. How Stokes and Diarra find a groove will determine if this is a team with a capability of winning the league, or if they'll just likely be a 3rd or 4th place team next year. But, regardless, Dean and Barry will be the most efficient and experienced 1/2 punch in the league. I think they have the ability to be similar to Niang/Morris, but playing their best and most experienced ball, together, for a final year. They seem, to me, like a stronger version of the 15/16 Iowa State team, but that's just my thought.
What do we think is an appropriate stat line for each player next year? How does that translate to victories?
I'll start:
Wade (Current): 16.1 ppg/6.3 rpg/2.6 apg
Wade (Projected): 19.3 ppg/6.5 rpg/3.1 apg
Reasoning: I think Dean is what he is on the boards. I think he'll likely be a little more mature and a little more aggressive, leading to a slight uptick. But he is what he is. I also think what we're seeing, offensively, right now, is close to his ceiling, but if he can improve, he could look like Niang his SR year. He's playing extremely well, but his ORtg is actually lower this year than last. His usage is up several points, however. I think we'll see more aggression from the get go next year with double digit shot attempts each game, which will lead to something closer to Niang's SR numbers.
Brown (Current): 16.0 ppg/3.1 rpg/3.5 apg
Brown (Projected): 18.2 ppg/3.0 rpg/4.1 apg
Reasoning: Barry has kind of found himself and who he is in the back half of this season. He's embraced the slasher within and seen a renaissance in his game. Each year, his ORtg has seen a 7 point gain, so if he does next year, he'd be close to where Dean is now. I think Barry is the one with the most upside to grow next year. Also, his ATO has gotten better each year, so I think he'll see about an additional assist per game with, hopefully, less TOs. Maybe something like 4.1 apg/1.8 tov
Stokes (Current): 11.5 ppg/4.3 apg/1.8 TOg
Stokes (Projected): 10.3 ppg/4.8 apg/1.4 TOg
Reasoning: Personally, I think Stokes loses some minutes, but he becomes slightly more efficient. I think Diarra's defense will push Stokes onto the bench more, but he'll find his role assuming his eFG becomes marginally better. He saw a solid jump in ORtg this year before his injury, so I don't see why he would take a big step back.
Sneed (Current): 11.2 ppg/4.3 rpg/1.5 apg
Sneed (Projected) 13.0 ppg/5.1 rpg/2.9 apg
Reasoning: X and his stats, at least in the points and board category, really look a lot like Wes after his Junior year. He has less assists because he handles the ball less than Wes did, but do I think he can have a similar growth? Yeah. He already has a better ORtg than Wes during his senior year, so I think if he continues to tighten up his game, we can see him emerge into a very dangerous glue guy with the potential to really light up the stat sheet his senior year.
Diarra (Current): 7.1 ppg/2.1 rpg/2.0 apg
Diarra (Projected) 9.2 ppg/2.4 rpg/2.9 apg
Reasoning: He's averaging more in these categories during conference play, but going into next season, I think he's going to lose some time to Stokes. I think it's going to be hard to push him back into the starting lineup if Stokes is healthy because the senior usually gets the nod.But I think he can get a little better.
I'm not even going to do the posts because I simply don't know what in the Hell to expect. If someone else wants to take a crack, go ahead.
I think, overall, this core of five guys will be what determines the kind of team we have next year. I think they'll be a stronger, more efficient team...IF...they learn their roles. How Stokes and Diarra find a groove will determine if this is a team with a capability of winning the league, or if they'll just likely be a 3rd or 4th place team next year. But, regardless, Dean and Barry will be the most efficient and experienced 1/2 punch in the league. I think they have the ability to be similar to Niang/Morris, but playing their best and most experienced ball, together, for a final year. They seem, to me, like a stronger version of the 15/16 Iowa State team, but that's just my thought.
