12 days ago, it looked like Baylor was done. The Bears lost 3 of 4 games and were coming off a 25 point loss at Texas Tech. For the 2nd time this season, their best player was hurt and another key player was out. They sat at 7-5 in the league with a trip to Iowa State next, while the Cyclones had just inserted themselves back into the Big 12 picture with a win in Manhattan. Somehow Scott Drew and the Bears rebounded and after winning 3 straight are just a game back of K-State and Tech in the Big 12 race. Drew is clearly in the running for Big 12 COTY with what he has done in Waco this season.
Baylor has built the league's most efficient offense this year basically by shooting and making a lot of 3s and rebounding a bunch of their misses. The combination of shooting over 39% from 3 with over 41% of their shots from behind the arc and then rebounding over 40% of their misses is quite a trifecta. Their domination on the offensive glass in this league is impressive. The oboarding rate of 40.7% is 5% better than 2nd in the league (WVU, 35.5%) and 10% better than 3rd (TCU, 30.8%). In an era of college basketball when offensive rebounding is declining (28.5% average overall, 30.2% Big 12), the Bears continue to be elite at it with the 2nd best rate in the country and Drew's 6th straight season with a top 10 oboarding team. Then to top it off, the Bears have continued their impressive shooting improvement with the Big 12's best 3 point shooting team after shooting under 30% from 3 through their first 15 games this season. Baylor's biggest weakness on offense is taking care of the ball, as they are 7th best offensively in TO% in the league.
That said, the Bears defense is pretty bad; no better than 7th in the league in efficiency or the 4 factors. Their best attribute is defending 2s, but even that is only 6th in the league. 5 of their last 6 opponents have had an efficiency of at least 1.08 ppp. On the road their ability to force TOs drops considerably (TO% of 18.4% at home compared to 14.8% on the road) and more importantly they send opponents to the FT line at a much higher rate (FT rate of 35.8% at home to 47.5% on the road). Their road defensive efficiency in Big 12 play is 1.09 ppp and their efficiency in the 5 games since playing us is nearly 1.13 ppp. Only WVU and OSU have worse defenses than what we'll see Saturday in Manhattan and K-State already scored at a rate of 1.17 ppp (5th best in Big 12 play) in Waco.
Makai Mason is playing, but he's not nearly the player he was before his foot injury. He's 5-34 (14.7%) on 2s and 3-22 (13.6%) on 3s in the 5 games he's played since the injury, but he has been effective from the FT line and on assists. Still, a guy that is clearly not 100% should be someone we can attack on the offensive end in Baylor's variety of zone defenses.
However, other guys have stepped up lately with Mason hobbled and McClure out, though McClure did play 7 minutes last night, his first action after missing 5 games. Jared Butler has scored double figures in 7 straight games. Mario Kegler has 47 in the the last 2 games, including 6-9 from 3. Devante Bandoo has 40 in the last 2 games including 8-15 from 3. Mark Vital has 31 in the last 2 games including 8-19 from 3. Gillispie continues to be steady inside and he and Vital are 2 of the top 3 offensive rebounders in the Big 12. Mayer gives them a few minutes off the bench and keep in mind that Butler, Vital, Kegler, Mayer, and McClure were all Top 100 players out of HS.
Sometimes match ups just tend to work out in your favor. Baylor is definitely a team capable of coming into Manhattan and winning, but K-State has beat them 5 straight; this group of seniors, even if a couple are hobbled, will be a confident bunch Saturday. Plus, Baylor simply plays bad defense and in my mind they are playing with house money a bit for the 2nd time this season. They had a nice run in the middle of Big 12 play and now are on a nice mini run. However, poor defense will eventually catch up with you and I think it does Saturday against a rested K-State team while Baylor comes off their hard fought OT win Wednesday night.
Cats 74 - Bears 63
Baylor has built the league's most efficient offense this year basically by shooting and making a lot of 3s and rebounding a bunch of their misses. The combination of shooting over 39% from 3 with over 41% of their shots from behind the arc and then rebounding over 40% of their misses is quite a trifecta. Their domination on the offensive glass in this league is impressive. The oboarding rate of 40.7% is 5% better than 2nd in the league (WVU, 35.5%) and 10% better than 3rd (TCU, 30.8%). In an era of college basketball when offensive rebounding is declining (28.5% average overall, 30.2% Big 12), the Bears continue to be elite at it with the 2nd best rate in the country and Drew's 6th straight season with a top 10 oboarding team. Then to top it off, the Bears have continued their impressive shooting improvement with the Big 12's best 3 point shooting team after shooting under 30% from 3 through their first 15 games this season. Baylor's biggest weakness on offense is taking care of the ball, as they are 7th best offensively in TO% in the league.
That said, the Bears defense is pretty bad; no better than 7th in the league in efficiency or the 4 factors. Their best attribute is defending 2s, but even that is only 6th in the league. 5 of their last 6 opponents have had an efficiency of at least 1.08 ppp. On the road their ability to force TOs drops considerably (TO% of 18.4% at home compared to 14.8% on the road) and more importantly they send opponents to the FT line at a much higher rate (FT rate of 35.8% at home to 47.5% on the road). Their road defensive efficiency in Big 12 play is 1.09 ppp and their efficiency in the 5 games since playing us is nearly 1.13 ppp. Only WVU and OSU have worse defenses than what we'll see Saturday in Manhattan and K-State already scored at a rate of 1.17 ppp (5th best in Big 12 play) in Waco.
Makai Mason is playing, but he's not nearly the player he was before his foot injury. He's 5-34 (14.7%) on 2s and 3-22 (13.6%) on 3s in the 5 games he's played since the injury, but he has been effective from the FT line and on assists. Still, a guy that is clearly not 100% should be someone we can attack on the offensive end in Baylor's variety of zone defenses.
However, other guys have stepped up lately with Mason hobbled and McClure out, though McClure did play 7 minutes last night, his first action after missing 5 games. Jared Butler has scored double figures in 7 straight games. Mario Kegler has 47 in the the last 2 games, including 6-9 from 3. Devante Bandoo has 40 in the last 2 games including 8-15 from 3. Mark Vital has 31 in the last 2 games including 8-19 from 3. Gillispie continues to be steady inside and he and Vital are 2 of the top 3 offensive rebounders in the Big 12. Mayer gives them a few minutes off the bench and keep in mind that Butler, Vital, Kegler, Mayer, and McClure were all Top 100 players out of HS.
Sometimes match ups just tend to work out in your favor. Baylor is definitely a team capable of coming into Manhattan and winning, but K-State has beat them 5 straight; this group of seniors, even if a couple are hobbled, will be a confident bunch Saturday. Plus, Baylor simply plays bad defense and in my mind they are playing with house money a bit for the 2nd time this season. They had a nice run in the middle of Big 12 play and now are on a nice mini run. However, poor defense will eventually catch up with you and I think it does Saturday against a rested K-State team while Baylor comes off their hard fought OT win Wednesday night.
Cats 74 - Bears 63
