So we've seen this before, right?
KU starts 5-3 in the league with losses in Ames and to one of the worst teams in the league. The Hawks are inexperienced at the guard spots and their best player is a big. People start to think "this is the year it ends".
Then KU doesn't lose again until the end of March in the Elite 8 to finish the 2016 season.
We will see if Bill can repeat his voodoo Big 12 magic once again. Granted, this year's team is still pretty darn good with wins over 2 top 5 kenpom teams, last year's national champ, and handling the same Marquette team that handled KSU in the OOC. It is barely February and they are already 8-4 in Tier 1 NET games and 5-1 vs Tier 2. The Hawks are top 25 in both defensive and offensive efficiency in kenpom's adjusted rankings.
However, there are some real kinks in the armor. This is one of Self's worst rebounding teams, they don't handle the ball particularly well, midway through the conference they are only slightly positive in efficiency differential, and they've only won a single true road game all season.
This is an interesting KU team. Offensively they have gone back to the more classic Bill Self traits; namely relying much less on 3s (only about 1/3 of their FGAs after 40+% last season) and relying on a dominant scorer in the paint. They lead the league in 2PT% and are still decent from beyond the arc. However, they don't handle the ball well and so far are the worst offensive rebounding team Self has ever coached. They are also the worst FT% team in the Big 12 while getting there at a decent clip.
Defensively, they dominate 2PT%, though they haven't been great against 3s. They offset their high TO% on offense by forcing TOs at a good clip and are 2nd in the league at defensive FT rate. However, they are allowing opponents to rebound misses at a high clip, especially in Big 12 games.
KU is the highest paced team in the league, hoping to get possessions in the lower 70s; pretty much the opposite of K-State. They look to score quickly, with an average Big 12 offensive possession length of 15.9 seconds (fastest in the league) and 15.7 for the season (28th fastest nationally).
Dedric Lawson leads the Hawks with one of the highest scoring rates in the league (33.5 PTs/100 in league play) while shooting 30% of KU's shots while on the floor. He might be the best rebounder in the league as well. However, he's the main big (and rebounder) Self has to work with after the loss of Azubuike and the declaration that De Sousa won't be playing. McCormack and Lightfoot play a bit, but the rest of the lineup is a bunch of long guards.
Vick is one of the better 3 point shooters in the league, then KU has a trio of freshman guards in Dotson, Grimes, and Agbaji, plus Garrett if he's healthy. I'm not sure I see the next Graham, Mason, Taylor, or Collins showing up out of that group, at least for this season. In the past that lead guard that can get to the rim, especially down the stretch in the 2nd half, has always seemed to be Self's difference maker in winning close league games, especially on the road.
The Wildcats and Jayhawks cruised to victory in last Saturday's games by shooting (and making) way more 3s than they typically do as both teams had 3PT rates over 50%. I'm not sold that's a winning recipe for either team in this one. For the first time in a long time, K-State has the better rebounding team, which should be a big factor. K-State is the best team in the league at forcing TOs and forcing the Hawks into a high TO rate could be a key; ISU dominate KU in Ames by forcing TOs on an incredible 1/3 of possessions, but 22% or so would be good tomorrow. I don't know if K-State can outshoot KU, but they can more than offset that by winning on the boards and TOs. It could come down to which team can get to the FT line, which could give KU a slight advantage. I expect an electric atmosphere in the OOD and a focused performance from this group of seniors who have been waiting for this opportunity.
Cats 68 - Hawks 64
KU starts 5-3 in the league with losses in Ames and to one of the worst teams in the league. The Hawks are inexperienced at the guard spots and their best player is a big. People start to think "this is the year it ends".
Then KU doesn't lose again until the end of March in the Elite 8 to finish the 2016 season.
We will see if Bill can repeat his voodoo Big 12 magic once again. Granted, this year's team is still pretty darn good with wins over 2 top 5 kenpom teams, last year's national champ, and handling the same Marquette team that handled KSU in the OOC. It is barely February and they are already 8-4 in Tier 1 NET games and 5-1 vs Tier 2. The Hawks are top 25 in both defensive and offensive efficiency in kenpom's adjusted rankings.
However, there are some real kinks in the armor. This is one of Self's worst rebounding teams, they don't handle the ball particularly well, midway through the conference they are only slightly positive in efficiency differential, and they've only won a single true road game all season.
This is an interesting KU team. Offensively they have gone back to the more classic Bill Self traits; namely relying much less on 3s (only about 1/3 of their FGAs after 40+% last season) and relying on a dominant scorer in the paint. They lead the league in 2PT% and are still decent from beyond the arc. However, they don't handle the ball well and so far are the worst offensive rebounding team Self has ever coached. They are also the worst FT% team in the Big 12 while getting there at a decent clip.
Defensively, they dominate 2PT%, though they haven't been great against 3s. They offset their high TO% on offense by forcing TOs at a good clip and are 2nd in the league at defensive FT rate. However, they are allowing opponents to rebound misses at a high clip, especially in Big 12 games.
KU is the highest paced team in the league, hoping to get possessions in the lower 70s; pretty much the opposite of K-State. They look to score quickly, with an average Big 12 offensive possession length of 15.9 seconds (fastest in the league) and 15.7 for the season (28th fastest nationally).
Dedric Lawson leads the Hawks with one of the highest scoring rates in the league (33.5 PTs/100 in league play) while shooting 30% of KU's shots while on the floor. He might be the best rebounder in the league as well. However, he's the main big (and rebounder) Self has to work with after the loss of Azubuike and the declaration that De Sousa won't be playing. McCormack and Lightfoot play a bit, but the rest of the lineup is a bunch of long guards.
Vick is one of the better 3 point shooters in the league, then KU has a trio of freshman guards in Dotson, Grimes, and Agbaji, plus Garrett if he's healthy. I'm not sure I see the next Graham, Mason, Taylor, or Collins showing up out of that group, at least for this season. In the past that lead guard that can get to the rim, especially down the stretch in the 2nd half, has always seemed to be Self's difference maker in winning close league games, especially on the road.
The Wildcats and Jayhawks cruised to victory in last Saturday's games by shooting (and making) way more 3s than they typically do as both teams had 3PT rates over 50%. I'm not sold that's a winning recipe for either team in this one. For the first time in a long time, K-State has the better rebounding team, which should be a big factor. K-State is the best team in the league at forcing TOs and forcing the Hawks into a high TO rate could be a key; ISU dominate KU in Ames by forcing TOs on an incredible 1/3 of possessions, but 22% or so would be good tomorrow. I don't know if K-State can outshoot KU, but they can more than offset that by winning on the boards and TOs. It could come down to which team can get to the FT line, which could give KU a slight advantage. I expect an electric atmosphere in the OOD and a focused performance from this group of seniors who have been waiting for this opportunity.
Cats 68 - Hawks 64
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