I know that many on this board believe Weber needs to go but I'm just not quite ready to say that yet. Maybe I'm just a more patient KSU fan than many on this board but I truly want to see what he does next year. If he doesn't make the NCAA tournament, I'm inclined to cave in to the folks who believe he isn't the right guy. But in the meantime, I'd like to discuss what I personally believe went wrong with this year from a successful non-conference record to a conference record that has not met expectations. These could certainly be perceived as excuses (they are to some extent) but I also believe they have merit.
Loss of confidence
After going back and watching some early season games from this year, it's pretty tough to take where we are today. We started out playing with a huge amount of confidence which is where many of the highlights are derived for our freshmen. Games against Columbia, Missouri, North Carolina and then later Georgia. While the freshmen were struggling to adjust to D1 level of play, they were having success and believed that they were good enough to win. Losing to N. Carolina was a setback but not to the extent losing to A&M was in my opinion. After that, Dean Wade has never quite the same confidence-wise. Looking back, I'm not sure that he was ready to be the "go to guy" that he was called upon to be this year. While I believe he can be that guy, he was just not ready yet and it probably wasn't fair to expect him to be that person this year. This loss of confidence was further driven by other issues.
Stokes Injury
We came into the year asking 2 inexperienced PGs to take over an entirely new team with the exception of Wesley Iwundu (Hurt is still a project as a senior and DJ was starting over to some extent). Stokes gave us some early hope with his dominating performance against N. Carolina (with M. Paige sitting on the sideline). He continued to improve his A/TO ratio as the Big XII came around but the more that improved, the more he struggled with his shooting. He TOO was being called upon to take on more than he was ready for in a league that is ranked far and away as the #1 league. Nevertheless, he was keeping us in games and we were not only competitive but we were on the cusp of turning the season into one with post season plans. Then he was injured, we got our first look at Ervin, the not-quite-ready-for-Big XII, backup PG. Barry Brown was never intended to be a PG and Wes Iwundu had been playing 4 and 5 his entire career to this point although he was probably our next best option. Net result: turnovers like crazy by our guards as we were in the midst of a run against KU, Oklahoma, Baylor, and OSU. Amazingly, we came out of the stretch with one win and playing better against a KU team that was starting a run than anyone (looking back) probably could have expected. However, with Stokes, there is no way that we lose at OSU.
Schedule Woes
In reality, if you could plan out the schedule that you'd have wanted to have in place with an inexperienced group facing the toughest league in D1, you'd have probably done something like this:
Game #1 KU @ Lawrence, Game #2 W. Virginia @ Morgantown, Game #3 TCU at home, Game #4 Texas Tech at home, Game #5 OSU at home, Game #6 Iowa State @ Ames, Game #7 OU @ Norman, Game #8 Texas @ Austin, Game #9 Baylor. Then the 2nd half, after gaining more experience, we could play road winnable games @ TCU, @ OSU, @TTech, @Baylor with home games against KU, OU, W. Virginia, Iowa State, and Texas. As it turns out, some of that actually happened but starting with W. Virginia at home with no students and barely losing the game in Double OT was unfortunate and probably turns out differently if the game is played in February. Playing Iowa State that early had some of the same effect (playing in Manhattan on Jan. 16. Maybe we win that game if it's played in February. Having said that, we played OSU and will play TTech on the road in the 2nd half and STILL lost to OSU.
All of the above have led us to a 15-14 record that very likely will end at 17-16 and maybe or probably ends in a trip to the NIT. Hopefully, we will get a home game and can maybe win a game or maybe even two in this tournament and finish with close to 20 wins. That would be a big positive for this years team given where we started last offseason and the obstacles we've had to deal with this year.
Next year
With a Big XII that will be down only slightly (I say this because many others have a solid recruiting class coming in too), we will have our work cut out for us again next year. However, we WILL have experience back (assuming no transfers out) and that leaves us with more hope and less excuses for falling short. In my opinion we get significantly better in the post (more experienced Wade, DJ coming on BIG TIME in the last 3-4 games, and some backup in Williams and Love who can protect the rim), Wes can move back to his more natural spot (the 3) and Barry will be a starter from the beginning at shooting guard (top 15 3 pt shooter in the league this year) with Stokes hopefully back healthy and some true scholarship players behind these guys in Sneed, Diarra, and someone to come. We will have actual depth for the first time with positive attitudes. If Weber loses THESE guys, then that's a problem. I don't think he will and I think he'll have some positive bullets in his gun for the first time since Will and Shane completed their eligibility. I'm optimistic about where we go from here.
Loss of confidence
After going back and watching some early season games from this year, it's pretty tough to take where we are today. We started out playing with a huge amount of confidence which is where many of the highlights are derived for our freshmen. Games against Columbia, Missouri, North Carolina and then later Georgia. While the freshmen were struggling to adjust to D1 level of play, they were having success and believed that they were good enough to win. Losing to N. Carolina was a setback but not to the extent losing to A&M was in my opinion. After that, Dean Wade has never quite the same confidence-wise. Looking back, I'm not sure that he was ready to be the "go to guy" that he was called upon to be this year. While I believe he can be that guy, he was just not ready yet and it probably wasn't fair to expect him to be that person this year. This loss of confidence was further driven by other issues.
Stokes Injury
We came into the year asking 2 inexperienced PGs to take over an entirely new team with the exception of Wesley Iwundu (Hurt is still a project as a senior and DJ was starting over to some extent). Stokes gave us some early hope with his dominating performance against N. Carolina (with M. Paige sitting on the sideline). He continued to improve his A/TO ratio as the Big XII came around but the more that improved, the more he struggled with his shooting. He TOO was being called upon to take on more than he was ready for in a league that is ranked far and away as the #1 league. Nevertheless, he was keeping us in games and we were not only competitive but we were on the cusp of turning the season into one with post season plans. Then he was injured, we got our first look at Ervin, the not-quite-ready-for-Big XII, backup PG. Barry Brown was never intended to be a PG and Wes Iwundu had been playing 4 and 5 his entire career to this point although he was probably our next best option. Net result: turnovers like crazy by our guards as we were in the midst of a run against KU, Oklahoma, Baylor, and OSU. Amazingly, we came out of the stretch with one win and playing better against a KU team that was starting a run than anyone (looking back) probably could have expected. However, with Stokes, there is no way that we lose at OSU.
Schedule Woes
In reality, if you could plan out the schedule that you'd have wanted to have in place with an inexperienced group facing the toughest league in D1, you'd have probably done something like this:
Game #1 KU @ Lawrence, Game #2 W. Virginia @ Morgantown, Game #3 TCU at home, Game #4 Texas Tech at home, Game #5 OSU at home, Game #6 Iowa State @ Ames, Game #7 OU @ Norman, Game #8 Texas @ Austin, Game #9 Baylor. Then the 2nd half, after gaining more experience, we could play road winnable games @ TCU, @ OSU, @TTech, @Baylor with home games against KU, OU, W. Virginia, Iowa State, and Texas. As it turns out, some of that actually happened but starting with W. Virginia at home with no students and barely losing the game in Double OT was unfortunate and probably turns out differently if the game is played in February. Playing Iowa State that early had some of the same effect (playing in Manhattan on Jan. 16. Maybe we win that game if it's played in February. Having said that, we played OSU and will play TTech on the road in the 2nd half and STILL lost to OSU.
All of the above have led us to a 15-14 record that very likely will end at 17-16 and maybe or probably ends in a trip to the NIT. Hopefully, we will get a home game and can maybe win a game or maybe even two in this tournament and finish with close to 20 wins. That would be a big positive for this years team given where we started last offseason and the obstacles we've had to deal with this year.
Next year
With a Big XII that will be down only slightly (I say this because many others have a solid recruiting class coming in too), we will have our work cut out for us again next year. However, we WILL have experience back (assuming no transfers out) and that leaves us with more hope and less excuses for falling short. In my opinion we get significantly better in the post (more experienced Wade, DJ coming on BIG TIME in the last 3-4 games, and some backup in Williams and Love who can protect the rim), Wes can move back to his more natural spot (the 3) and Barry will be a starter from the beginning at shooting guard (top 15 3 pt shooter in the league this year) with Stokes hopefully back healthy and some true scholarship players behind these guys in Sneed, Diarra, and someone to come. We will have actual depth for the first time with positive attitudes. If Weber loses THESE guys, then that's a problem. I don't think he will and I think he'll have some positive bullets in his gun for the first time since Will and Shane completed their eligibility. I'm optimistic about where we go from here.
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